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The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

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Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#211

Post by autoexec »

ivewonyoung wrote: post #132
autoexec wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know what you would define as "non-capitalistic" or why you'd limit your options to only those countries, but the idea that people can just pack up and go to live wherever they feel like is incredibly naive. The reasons Americans don't just move to whatever country they think they'd enjoying living in the most are often the same reasons most people all over the world don't. They have a life here. Family, frie…

Those factors apply to non Americans wanting to move to the US but it's apparent that there is heavy demand to the extent of millions taking dangerous trips and breaking laws just to get a foot into the USA. You cant find such latent demand to the same extent via surveys or visa applications in the other direction.

Those factors apply to everyone. Even, as I pointed out, within America itself. There are Americans living in places that are literally killing them. They aren't happy about, but they also can't just leave either. Learn about them and their lives if you really want to understand why.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#212

Post by automatic6131 »

kopirgan wrote: post #194

Very well written sub. Any prediction on when it'll end? Can Chinese companies scale up to scare the big 3 into increasing capacity or lose price control?

It will end slowly, and then very suddenly.

The demand for AI simply doesn't exist at the real prices. It barely exists at the current subsidized rates - Microsoft, Google, Meta, Anthropic, OpenAI are spending hundreds of billions to make mere billions.

And then these data centers will be worthless, future ones won't get built, memory demand will evaporate on the spot.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#213

Post by account42 »

MagicMoonlight wrote: post #137
rationalist wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While it's a possibility, do you believe it is likely enough in the very near future to the point where you are betting on it? Perhaps shorting TSMC? If I did so when I first thought about it, I would be broke by now.

The point to short will be when the Chinese army forms up. With Ukraine we saw it. It was incredibly obvious. Hilariously the Ukrainians themselves saw the huge army on their border and told everyone it wasn’t going to happen and refused to build any defences. Taiwan will be the same. But the satellites will give everyone enough warning.

Ukraine expected treaties to mean something. The world now knows better.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#214

Post by autoexec »

Gareth321 wrote: post #156
autoexec wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're losing a lot of workers. Some might consider that a good thing if they hate the idea of a large exploited underclass (or just people of a certain skin color), but it could be a problem for farms if there aren't enough hands to harvest in time.

Let us hope this results in farms offering Americans better wages for working on farms. Only 1% of the retail cost of produce is due to labour. Farms could double wages to workers and it would barely move the needle on inflation.

I agree, but the farmers aren't pulling in massive amounts of cash either. There are record profits being siphoned from the wages of the workers, and from the profits of the farmers, and from the pockets of the consumer at the register. We'd all be better off if we tracked the money down and took it back.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#215

Post by yuriks »

nickpp wrote: post #195
coldtea wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

State run is better than a private for profit monopoly or few-o-poly which is what we get. People all over the world have often revolted to get some enterprises state run (nationalizing) and were often punished or even bombed for it.

State run (or heavily regulated) services around here in Eastern Europe: health care, education and housing. All incredibly bad and expensive, I pay huge chunks of my monthly salary for them and I try to avoid them at all costs. They get worse and more expensive with time too. All the other services and products I use in my life, from the car I drive to the clothes on my back, the food I eat and the device I write th…

Health care, education and housing have been getting worse and more expensive in the US over the decade also. Must be all that nationalization.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#216

Post by bigstrat2003 »

skiing_crawling wrote: post #79
stego-tech wrote: post #27

This is the biggest memory repricing cycle I've ever seen in my life; some degree of high price/limited availability and "free RAM with purchase of Doritos" cycle is always expected, but this has been the worst one yet. As other commenters have pointed out but I might have missed in the article, compute maturation is amplifying memory constraints right now and making it worse. Device upgrade cycles are getting longer…

> Even if LLMs fail spectacularly Haven't they already proven to be extremely useful? In some areas they are definitely here to stay, coding/software and search (retrieve and summarize information). There's a bunch of places where they are surely shoehorned in, overhyped, and don't belong, but there's also equally many places where they might still be transformative but aren't used yet. But overall I think the techno…

> Haven't they already proven to be extremely useful?

Most certainly not. The accuracy issues mean that they can't really be used effectively for coding or search, the two things you mentioned.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#217

Post by mjanx123 »

hcurtiss wrote: post #59
shimman wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why should society care about people making profits? Society would greatly benefit from cheap abundant ram than FAANG shares going up. I'm kinda sick about only caring that some billionaire makes more money and would rather you know... actually improve conditions to better society. This is why China is eating the West. Quite easy to start an electronics company when you have such an abundance of suppliers, compare th…

You think Chinese businesses aren’t in it for the profits?

In China the desire for profits serves the society. In the US the society serves the desire for profits.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#218

Post by sophrosyne42 »

richforrester wrote: post #20
LeifCarrotson wrote: post #15

What was most surprising about all this to me was this line: > So modern DRAM manufacturing is an extraordinarily complex and expensive process. Building a single state-of-the-art DRAM fabrication facility, a “fab,” will cost you about $15 to $20 billion; acquiring all the necessary equipment, like lithography tools and etching machines, will cost you another few billion; and then it’ll take you a few years of produc…

Literally the most overwhelming thought, reading this, is "man, capitalism is a mistake" The amounts of money circulating whilst some of us struggle to make rent ... Nothing fair, or just, about this world we live in

> The amounts of money circulating whilst some of us struggle to make rent ...

It may be expressed in terms of money, but these are assets and capital. You wouldn't find a fab a very comfortable or satisfying place to live.

The reason the numbers get so big is the gargantuan accumulated savings that are prepared to fund the similarly gargantuan ventures. The large numbers are supported by maintaining and sustaining the capitalized value by profitable investment and depreciation.

When you talk about rent, while it may be expressed in the same unit (money), the economic function played is very different. Here, it is consumption rather than saving/investment. If the dollar equivalent of all those assets went towards paying rent, while it would secure housing for some time, it would eventually become completely exhausted, and so too would housing security. Large pools of assets are simply not a way to get stable housing, it would only consume the large savings society has accumulated to be able to undergo those big ventures. It would be short-sighted and harm us in the future.

The cause and solution to rental instability is to be found in housing, building, and land policy that restricts the production of housing.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#219

Post by realusername »

automatic6131 wrote: post #212
kopirgan wrote: post #194

Very well written sub. Any prediction on when it'll end? Can Chinese companies scale up to scare the big 3 into increasing capacity or lose price control?

It will end slowly, and then very suddenly. The demand for AI simply doesn't exist at the real prices. It barely exists at the current subsidized rates - Microsoft, Google, Meta, Anthropic, OpenAI are spending hundreds of billions to make mere billions. And then these data centers will be worthless, future ones won't get built, memory demand will evaporate on the spot.

I have the same opinion, these AI companies can't even work financially with the cheap ram prices, they certainly won't with high prices.

And ram producers are betting on it, they will just milk the AI companies until they collapse.

Re: The memory shortage is causing a repricing of consumer electronics

#220

Post by officialchicken »

mrandish wrote: post #207
kopirgan wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This has become like opec's best years. Only there's no cartel at least not openly. But there's another key bottleneck. Even with all the money in the world, getting those machines that etch the RAM could be a multi year ration shop queue. And they're not making those companies every day!

> This has become like opec's best years Yes, except no DRAM maker is taking this as a signal to go deep into debt to double or triple capacity. It takes a minimum of 3+ years to dramatically increase capacity and no one expects this inflated demand bubble to last that long. Because they've seen this cycle before, they'll bump next gen capacity up a bit more than planned, maybe 15-25% because the current windfall pro…

> Yes, except no DRAM maker is taking this as a signal to go deep...

Incorrect. CXMT is taking this as a signal to open new fabs, create new products, develop new silicon manufacturing techniques, and enter the consumer market worldwide (except USA).

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