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Wait- why isn't there any conflict of interest statement provided in this paper?
Because it's not required and not common practice in our field at this stage. But none of us (I'm one of the authors) is affiliated with or has a financial interest in any prediction market platform.
Just curious but how are bets arbritated on these website? Meaning who decides if an outcome was yes or no? Answers to things like "Who will win the next Best Picture Oscar?" are fairly obvious and binary. Can we make bets whose answers are not binary yes/no? What about "Will celebraty X and Y break up?"? Does Polymarket go to X and Y to confirm if they broke up or something :D
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I don't think that's surprising because the alternative would be that some people are able to predict the future. Whatever strategy one might figure out that works is long term destined to fail, as other people start using them. The only real way to make money there is by providing liquidity since it's a zero sum game. For the stock market this is not true because it's not zero sum, it grows over time.
> the top 1% of users capture 76.5% of profits This seems to be similar to OnlyFans, and the economy at large...
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I don't think that's surprising because the alternative would be that some people are able to predict the future. Whatever strategy one might figure out that works is long term destined to fail, as other people start using them. The only real way to make money there is by providing liquidity since it's a zero sum game. For the stock market this is not true because it's not zero sum, it grows over time.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because it's not required and not common practice in our field at this stage. But none of us (I'm one of the authors) is affiliated with or has a financial interest in any prediction market platform.
Isn't it common practice and required to disclose a conflict of interest? Just not to explicitly say there are none.
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I don't think that's surprising because the alternative would be that some people are able to predict the future. Whatever strategy one might figure out that works is long term destined to fail, as other people start using them. The only real way to make money there is by providing liquidity since it's a zero sum game. For the stock market this is not true because it's not zero sum, it grows over time.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think that's surprising because the alternative would be that some people are able to predict the future. Whatever strategy one might figure out that works is long term destined to fail, as other people start using them. The only real way to make money there is by providing liquidity since it's a zero sum game. For the stock market this is not true because it's not zero sum, it grows over time.
"predicting the future" and "correct analysis of all available information" often aren't all that different.