341–350 of 426 posts
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Direct indexing is a thing.
It’s a thing but your order execution won’t be as efficient as an ETF, so you will be losing a non-negligible amount each year in slippage from the large number of small transactions
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Yep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.
I still think NVIDIA is a bad bet--where is their moat in the long term? Doesn't the sort of work NVIDIA engineers do look vulnerable to AI-assisted automation? NVIDIA engineers code against a well-defined test suite/specification, right?
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My returns are around 20 percent per year for years. I lack will and energy to list everything I owned but it’s basically a method of value investing + momentum trading so two opposites. You could say it’s a diversification of investing philosophies. Honestly it’s a free for all game so no one has any interest to share their secrets and methods. When you lose money I make money. Better player wins.
> My returns are around 20 percent per year for years. That's unbelievable! Even Warren Buffet only makes 19% - 20% compounded every year. That would make you one of the top investors ever.
OpenAI will let down trousers first, Anthropic will be wise to not IPO this year: SpaceX will collect a lot of money, i guess; then OAI afterwards.
Anthropic will probably IPO as well
I would postpone on the very last minute, depending on what my competitors numbers say :-D
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Yeah, but will those hosted models help me write smut, advance my weekend CBRN hobby, advice on how to kill myself, advice on how to kill the person who made me want to kill myself, and how to set up a mega drug manufacturing operation like a real life Walter White?
you don't need AI to deal drugs, plenty of people with little education do it all the time
My recollection is that retail investors end up losing in these situations. I'm personally staying away...feels too much like a grift, but I won't pretend I have some magical analysis to prove it.
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Note that index funds don't hold companies in proportion to their market cap, but in proportion to their free float (shares available to purchase on the market). Both SpaceX and OpenAI's estimated free float are around 4-5% of their shares at IPO. This means that we really are talking about companies in the sub $100M valuation in term of index fund impact (assuming under $2T for each).
That's true for the S&P but not nasdaq, nasdaq is market cap weighted. There used to be a limit that the available float couldn't go below something like 20%. (This is because 5% float available but 100% market cap would cause a huge supply/demand mismatch). But for spacex they changed the rule so there's no minimum, it's just that below 20% float, companies would be weighted at 5x the float instead of 100% of market…
In your scenario, that 100% cap would by definition be less than 5x float so it shouldn't trigger any more buying than the lock-up expiration itself did.
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If you were going to invest in any AI company literally the only one I would trust to still exist in 10 years would be Google
Yep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.
But I recently added POET, CBRS and similar. I think whatever happens, "shovel sellers" will be the main winners in this bubble.