201–210 of 426 posts
Looks like there is only limited money in the market and there is a race to get it first. Wonder if the free market concept should move the prices down in such a scenario?
I think it's because the private market can't possibly go any higher. OpenAI is already valued at around $1 trillion and just raised $122b. The only next step is the public market.
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If you were going to invest in any AI company literally the only one I would trust to still exist in 10 years would be Google
Yep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.
But tech is also one of the fields that is more prone to disruption.
Nvidia is consistently one product away from it's competitors to eat highly into their margins.
Google may have a stronger moat. No company in Italy I'm aware of is using anything but copilot or Gemini/notebooklm (talking legal, insurance, etc, not tech) because they are natural extension to the cloud and Microsoft 365 existing plans.
Recency bias seem to push investors to ignore those risks and plenty reason like you: they use recent hindsight to project future growth.
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All that is a side show. What would you have done with the cash if you were right? Thats always the real story. My Aunt runs an accounting firm and is constantly moaning about the number of people who have over accumulated cash from IPOs and have no clue what to do with it all.
We love in a kind of bizarro world where the “capitalists” have printed so much money that they’re wildly inefficient in allocation of resources, as evident by all the excess cash sloshing around; while the “communists” of China and to some degree Russia and the BRICS in general are widely efficient in allocation of resources, as evident by the creativity and innovation and advancements they’ve made in very short ord…
(And China is a state capitalist economy)
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These companies are burning enough cash that they will need to be public. We’re about to have 3 of the worlds’s largest corporations be massively in the red.
Anthropic said they’ll be profitable by q2 of this year. https://www.ft.com/content/a67248e7-f819-4dba-b0f7-3847df0a7...
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We love in a kind of bizarro world where the “capitalists” have printed so much money that they’re wildly inefficient in allocation of resources, as evident by all the excess cash sloshing around; while the “communists” of China and to some degree Russia and the BRICS in general are widely efficient in allocation of resources, as evident by the creativity and innovation and advancements they’ve made in very short ord…
Including Russia and BRICS doesn’t support your thesis. Nothing efficient about their resource allocation (And China is a state capitalist economy)
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Index funds buy companies, for the most part, according to their market capitalisation. They own more of bigger companies than small. There's the option of "equal weight" or other strategies but the overwhelming majority is market cap weighted. Index funds are also really, really big now and contain a lot of money earmarked for retirement/pensions. In theory if you had a temporarily very frothy market into which you…
Ok, but how does this "hold the bag for the oligarchs"? And which specific oligarchs do you have in mind when you say this? Are you thinking of Sam Altman and Dario Amodei and Elon Musk?