How will this affect TSLA share holders? Will the value go up or down?
SpaceX S-1
191–200 of 404 posts
Re: SpaceX S-1
#192If any company can put profitable data centers in space, it will be SpaceX. But I doubt that any company can. The difficulties of the physics and engineering of cooling seem like they will always outweigh the advantages of keeping your data center on Earth. I am annoyed by the insistence that the value of this company comes from something that no one has been able to show is possible yet without multiplying it by the…
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Re: SpaceX S-1
#193Earlier quoted context omitted.
Napkin math on 5 year depreciation is 5.5 billion per year for 28 billion. However the 28 billion is cash upfront, spacex is probably paying 10-20% interest on the 28 billion for another 2-6 billion per year. So net you are looking at finance expenses of 7-11 billion per year. The electricity costs will be significant on top of that, but harder to get a solid read on. Net of everything, spacex may be getting a 14-28…
That assumes they are renting out the whole capacity. Have you seen anything suggesting that's the case?
Anthropic is renting the whole capacity (of one of the colossus), it was a big part of the announcement.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anthropic-to-rent-all-ai-capa...
I don't know about Cursor.
Re: SpaceX S-1
#194Finally ! Can we end the debate about how mind blowingly profitable this company is ? Mind you, those numbers don't take into account YET the Twitter debt / xAI merger burden - which will run into tens of billions per year. I just can't, can't wait until this whole Musk fugazzi finally blows up.
>those numbers don't take into account YET the Twitter debt / xAI merger burden Clearly untrue. Given that's the source of the reported steep losses
How so ? xAI / Twitter were merged in this year - they don't show up anywhere in the financials.
Re: SpaceX S-1
#195Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Plus Uber's only increased their revenue 11->14B in the last 5yrs. This is just incredibly off. A brief look at Yahoo Finance shows revenue has grown from $31.9B in 2022 -> $53.7B in trailing 12mos.
you're right, looks I mixed up some numbers while googling. their revenue went from 11->53b in 6yrs which was very off from my original comment Which honestly surprises me, Uber was called a VC pump and dump scheme for years on HN before their IPO. Maybe that's the better lesson here (dont take financial advice from HN comments)
Personally, I always underestimate how much exploitation consumers are willing to experience before leaving a brand. I thought Facebook was reaching the peak of its ability to shove ads into its products in like 2011, boy was I wrong.
Uber successfully displaced most of the alternatives, slowly raised rates, and maintained operating margin while their fixed costs didn't have to scale as much. Post Travis they've, financially, nailed it.
Re: SpaceX S-1
#196Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be honest, it could be one with XAi too. Im no fan of Musk and Grok but the deal with Anthropic pointed out by other contributors isn't nothing. And I don't think SpaceX losing money at this stage isn't quite the problem that people think it is -- as someone who as worked at companies losing money and then going on to make quite a bit. Revenue growth is there. The issue is that none of this is really worth $2T now…
The deal with Anthropic gives me more pause about the whole market. More circular spending. They are all propping each other up making it look like they have more revenue than they really have. I think Open AIs S-1 will be just as crazy. I don't think there is any rationality or plan to all of this. AI doesn't pay for itself. It won't for a very long time.
Anthropic showed operating profit (NOT profit) this quarter: https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mind-blowing-growth-is-about-to-...
Demand is there, money is coming in to these companies from customers. It isn't all circular.
Re: SpaceX S-1
#197Earlier quoted context omitted.
> COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0064177 It may be sick, but someone's got a sense of humor over there :)
THERE IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
REESTABLISH THE LINK OR ACTION WILL BE TAKEN
wickedly underrated film. my all time favorite in the skynet genre.
the vocoder speech at the end is just exquisite.
Re: SpaceX S-1
#198Earlier quoted context omitted.
Then why do they keep getting sued, then going one state over and running the same playbook that got them sued in the previous state? https://naacp.org/articles/naacp-sues-xai-illegal-pollution-...
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> "Environmental activists" are scum of the earth, as a rule
> Tactics like this are a part of why US is a lousy place to build infrastructure in.
I suspect your definition of a lousy place to build infrastructure in might overlap with my definition of a relatively good place to live.
Re: SpaceX S-1
#199Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be honest, it could be one with XAi too. Im no fan of Musk and Grok but the deal with Anthropic pointed out by other contributors isn't nothing. And I don't think SpaceX losing money at this stage isn't quite the problem that people think it is -- as someone who as worked at companies losing money and then going on to make quite a bit. Revenue growth is there. The issue is that none of this is really worth $2T now…
The deal with Anthropic gives me more pause about the whole market. More circular spending. They are all propping each other up making it look like they have more revenue than they really have. I think Open AIs S-1 will be just as crazy. I don't think there is any rationality or plan to all of this. AI doesn't pay for itself. It won't for a very long time.
Not really, this seems to be a very traditional "we need more cores, captain!" and "here's a datacenter with cores" rental.
Anthropic has grown 80x this year (according to their CEO). They are probably desperate to buy more inference compute for things like Claude Code, not for future investments. In the mean time, Grok seems to not have enough traction to utilize all the spare compute xAI has built with Colossus I and II.
This is one of those cases that shows that Elon is exceptionally better at atoms than he seems to be on the software side.
Re: SpaceX S-1
#200Earlier quoted context omitted.
Anthropic is not profitable and does not expect to be revenue even until 2028. They are just losing less billions per year than everyone else.
As always, free cash flow and unit economics are more interesting than net profit. By which metrics Anthropic is making a lot of money.
how exactly can you assume they have unit profitability