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SpaceX S-1

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Re: SpaceX S-1

#171
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how many of them were diverted from Tesla?

Pretty sure that Tesla didn't use Colossus. Tesla used Cortex 1 and Cortex 2 which are at the Gigafactory in Austin.

Tesla famously never got to use them https://arstechnica.com/cars/2024/06/elon-musk-is-diverting-...

Re: SpaceX S-1

#172
post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is SpaceX not making money? Total investment is 20-40B, rent to Anthropic for 45B over 3 years. Anthropic is also profitable now.

Anthropic is not profitable and does not expect to be revenue even until 2028. They are just losing less billions per year than everyone else.

As always, free cash flow and unit economics are more interesting than net profit.

By which metrics Anthropic is making a lot of money.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#173

So this confirms that SpaceX was making a lot of cash and plowing it back into R&D, and that the X/Twitter/xAI merger is concrete shoes on the good parts.

Did you read that Anthropic is paying them $15B/year for use of xAI's data centers? That changes things quite a bit

And SpaceX /xAI spent almost $20 B over the last 3 years on "AI" capex and has AI capex and operations costing $10B combined in Q1 2026...

Spending 40B to make $15B/year is a decent investment actually if you can do it for more than ~3-5 years.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#174

Finally ! Can we end the debate about how mind blowingly profitable this company is ? Mind you, those numbers don't take into account YET the Twitter debt / xAI merger burden - which will run into tens of billions per year. I just can't, can't wait until this whole Musk fugazzi finally blows up.

Bruh. This is unhinged.

SpaceX is a good company with a ton of potential future revenue on their data center and Starlink businesses. Nothing about this company is fugazzi.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#175
post #60
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's kind of the whole point of a stock market. If you already had a solid revenue stream, you wouldn't need investment. These numbers would be kind of typical for a software play, since the great thing about software is that you write it once and then sell it many times. They're making a similar assertion for hardware: "fund rocket ship design, and sell it many times (i.e. lots of launches)". The weird looking par…

> The weird looking part to he is cramming xAI into it. It's a completely different business with little overlap that I can see, in a crowded market that they are far from leading. My personal theory is that Musk wants to roll up all his companies into a mega corporation that he fully controls, and this is part of the process. I expect Tesla and SpaceX to merge years down the line. Of course, the counter to this thes…

Raising the market cap of Tesla is one of the requirements for Musk's nearly $1 trillion pay package. Merging companies is a lot easier than trying to sell more cars or non-existent robots.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#176

"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee" Anthropic is paying them 1.2…

> COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0064177 It may be sick, but someone's got a sense of humor over there :)

[deleted]

Re: SpaceX S-1

#177

"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee" Anthropic is paying them 1.2…

> COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0064177 It may be sick, but someone's got a sense of humor over there :)

THERE IS ANOTHER SYSTEM

Re: SpaceX S-1

#178
post #143

"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee" Anthropic is paying them 1.2…

As far as I can Google the colossus data centers did cost about 7-10 and 18 B respectively. Renting them out in part at 1.25 B pr month sounds like a very good deal for spacex.

It's really not.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#179
post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

has anyone done the math on: 1. cost to build out and run the data centers 2. cost of compute (hardware and energy) 3. depreciation of legacy GPU and thus value at the end of 3 years. And then compare the $45B revenue from Anthropic to see if it's mostly break even or if one of Anthropic/SpaceX came out ahead on the contract.

SpaceX is already indicating their strategy on this, because they’re renting their last-gen data center to Anthropic and keeping the current-gen data center for themselves. Rinse and repeat.

It's same gen.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#180
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I can Google the colossus data centers did cost about 7-10 and 18 B respectively. Renting them out in part at 1.25 B pr month sounds like a very good deal for spacex.

It's really not.

can you elaborate?
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