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SpaceX S-1

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Re: SpaceX S-1

#111
post #97
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

xAI is by far their most profitable segment, receiving 1.25B a month from Anthropic.

That 1.25B per month is not profit

Assuming renting their datacenters doesn't cost them any more than running them for themselves, and plugging 15B a year of revenue (which ignores X entirely and other forms of revenue) you get 5.4B income, more than Starlink 4.4B income (which is slightly subsidized by the launch segment)

Re: SpaceX S-1

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So be it. What's the alternative ? Continue a bubble ? Ride on the 'FSD by the end of the year' or 'thousands of Optimus next year' for the next 10 years ? The guys is openly lying and clearly a drug addict at this point and people think he's not cooking the books ? Musk empire will end up being a much bigger scandal than Enron ever was. It's just a matter of time until it unfolds.

The idea that 100s of global pension funds don't do their due diligence when investing 100s of millions or billions of their members' future retirement funds is extremely naive. With sincerity, I hope you can find a way not to be so emotional about what Musk says and be more grounded in what his companies and their employees are doing .

Have you ever heard of a Mortgage Backed Security?

Re: SpaceX S-1

#113
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason people laugh at Allbirds is that they don't have the money or expertise to build a competitive offering.

They certainly have some big shoes to fill. But I'm glad they didn't die with their boots on, and got their foot in the door at this new opportunity. It certainly didn't help that they were running on a shoestring budget.

And when Anthropic runs Claude on Allbirds' GPUs they'll give it a SOLE.md.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#114
post #43

"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee" Anthropic is paying them 1.2…

has anyone done the math on: 1. cost to build out and run the data centers 2. cost of compute (hardware and energy) 3. depreciation of legacy GPU and thus value at the end of 3 years. And then compare the $45B revenue from Anthropic to see if it's mostly break even or if one of Anthropic/SpaceX came out ahead on the contract.

SpaceX is already indicating their strategy on this, because they’re renting their last-gen data center to Anthropic and keeping the current-gen data center for themselves. Rinse and repeat.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#115
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What would be interesting to know how much did it cost xAI to build it ? Ai says between $18-$40 billion to just build, without running cost, but no idea how close to reality this is.

Closer to 18b than 40. Running costs are 1-2b a year.

More like $25 billion since 2025, with $7 billion of spending in the past 3 months. Look at page 22 of the filing.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#116
post #6

Finally ! Can we end the debate about how mind blowingly profitable this company is ? Mind you, those numbers don't take into account YET the Twitter debt / xAI merger burden - which will run into tens of billions per year. I just can't, can't wait until this whole Musk fugazzi finally blows up.

> I just can't, can't wait until this whole Musk fugazzi finally blows up. Be careful what you wish for. The collateral damage would be mind boggling.

Spacex is not too big to fail.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#117
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just can't, can't wait until this whole Musk fugazzi finally blows up. Be careful what you wish for. The collateral damage would be mind boggling.

>The collateral damage would be mind boggling. Nah. Nothing critical is running on top of any of SpaceXAI's offerings.

Arguably Ukraine is still alive because of StarLink.

Granted, Russia is trying hard to make every mistake in the book, but StarLink’s benefits for UA and cutting off RU units from StarLink was very advantageous this year.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#118
post #43

"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee" Anthropic is paying them 1.2…

has anyone done the math on: 1. cost to build out and run the data centers 2. cost of compute (hardware and energy) 3. depreciation of legacy GPU and thus value at the end of 3 years. And then compare the $45B revenue from Anthropic to see if it's mostly break even or if one of Anthropic/SpaceX came out ahead on the contract.

[dead]

Re: SpaceX S-1

#120
post #3

Crazy this company will IPO for >1B with such bad financials! That said, Starlink seems to be a real cash machine, not as good as ads but enough to support AI bets. 2025: - Revenue: $18.7B, up from $14.0B in 2024 - Operating loss: -$2.6B - Net loss: -$4.9B - Adjusted EBITDA: $6.6B - Operating cash flow: $6.8B - Capex: $20.7B Segment breakdown: - Starlink / Connectivity: $11.4B revenue, $4.4B operating income, $7.2B a…

I'm surprised launch is only -$0.65B, given just how much were they sinking into launch infrastructure and R&D for Starship.

Guess Falcon 9 the old reliable is still printing cash in the meanwhile.

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