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SpaceX S-1

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Re: SpaceX S-1

#31
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just can't, can't wait until this whole Musk fugazzi finally blows up. Be careful what you wish for. The collateral damage would be mind boggling.

>The collateral damage would be mind boggling. Nah. Nothing critical is running on top of any of SpaceXAI's offerings.

NASA mostly runs on SpaceX, so it depends if you consider ISS to be critical. But I wouldn't say it would be mind boggling.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#32
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just can't, can't wait until this whole Musk fugazzi finally blows up. Be careful what you wish for. The collateral damage would be mind boggling.

>The collateral damage would be mind boggling. Nah. Nothing critical is running on top of any of SpaceXAI's offerings.

[deleted]

Re: SpaceX S-1

#33

"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee" Anthropic is paying them 1.2…

$45 billion for a 3 year rental .

What would be interesting to know how much did it cost xAI to build it ? Ai says between $18-$40 billion to just build, without running cost, but no idea how close to reality this is.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#35
post #2

Their stated TAM is bonkers. A total of $28.5 trillion: $370B Space, $1.6T Connectivity, $26.5T in AI. With AI becoming more and more commoditized, the AI number is insane.

With these kind of made up numbers, they might as well have simply used the fucking Kardeshev scale.

Just compute the energy output of the Sun and claim they'll build a Dyson sphere around it.

Can charge a nice hefty subscription fee for using the Sun, just like Netflix.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#36
post #3

Crazy this company will IPO for >1B with such bad financials! That said, Starlink seems to be a real cash machine, not as good as ads but enough to support AI bets. 2025: - Revenue: $18.7B, up from $14.0B in 2024 - Operating loss: -$2.6B - Net loss: -$4.9B - Adjusted EBITDA: $6.6B - Operating cash flow: $6.8B - Capex: $20.7B Segment breakdown: - Starlink / Connectivity: $11.4B revenue, $4.4B operating income, $7.2B a…

Depreciation should be quite substantial - I recall reading that the starlink sats have a 5 year life expectancy?

Re: SpaceX S-1

#37
post #3

Crazy this company will IPO for >1B with such bad financials! That said, Starlink seems to be a real cash machine, not as good as ads but enough to support AI bets. 2025: - Revenue: $18.7B, up from $14.0B in 2024 - Operating loss: -$2.6B - Net loss: -$4.9B - Adjusted EBITDA: $6.6B - Operating cash flow: $6.8B - Capex: $20.7B Segment breakdown: - Starlink / Connectivity: $11.4B revenue, $4.4B operating income, $7.2B a…

Typo: I'm sure you meant >1T. >ARPU: $99/month in 2023, $81 in 2025, $66 in Q1 2026 Oof, are they already on diminishing returns phase? While I don't think the financials are bad, I agree, this is definitely not a 1T company (but the market can stay irrational ...).

They've been upping the subscription prices recently past few months.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#39

"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee" Anthropic is paying them 1.2…

Everyone laughed at Allbirds getting into the business of selling compute.
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