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SpaceX S-1

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Re: SpaceX S-1

#12
post #3

Crazy this company will IPO for >1B with such bad financials! That said, Starlink seems to be a real cash machine, not as good as ads but enough to support AI bets. 2025: - Revenue: $18.7B, up from $14.0B in 2024 - Operating loss: -$2.6B - Net loss: -$4.9B - Adjusted EBITDA: $6.6B - Operating cash flow: $6.8B - Capex: $20.7B Segment breakdown: - Starlink / Connectivity: $11.4B revenue, $4.4B operating income, $7.2B a…

Typo: I'm sure you meant >1T.

>ARPU: $99/month in 2023, $81 in 2025, $66 in Q1 2026

Oof, are they already on diminishing returns phase?

While I don't think the financials are bad, I agree, this is definitely not a 1T company (but the market can stay irrational ...).

Re: SpaceX S-1

#13
post #3

Crazy this company will IPO for >1B with such bad financials! That said, Starlink seems to be a real cash machine, not as good as ads but enough to support AI bets. 2025: - Revenue: $18.7B, up from $14.0B in 2024 - Operating loss: -$2.6B - Net loss: -$4.9B - Adjusted EBITDA: $6.6B - Operating cash flow: $6.8B - Capex: $20.7B Segment breakdown: - Starlink / Connectivity: $11.4B revenue, $4.4B operating income, $7.2B a…

Typo: I'm sure you meant >1T. >ARPU: $99/month in 2023, $81 in 2025, $66 in Q1 2026 Oof, are they already on diminishing returns phase? While I don't think the financials are bad, I agree, this is definitely not a 1T company (but the market can stay irrational ...).

[deleted]

Re: SpaceX S-1

#14
post #6

Finally ! Can we end the debate about how mind blowingly profitable this company is ? Mind you, those numbers don't take into account YET the Twitter debt / xAI merger burden - which will run into tens of billions per year. I just can't, can't wait until this whole Musk fugazzi finally blows up.

> I just can't, can't wait until this whole Musk fugazzi finally blows up. Be careful what you wish for. The collateral damage would be mind boggling.

>The collateral damage would be mind boggling.

Nah.

Nothing critical is running on top of any of SpaceXAI's offerings.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#15
"in May 2026, we entered into Cloud Services Agreements with Anthropic PBC (“Anthropic”), an AI research and development public benefit corporation, with respect to access to compute capacity across COLOSSUS and COLOSSUS II. Pursuant to these agreements, the customer has agreed to pay us $1.25 billion per month through May 2029, with capacity ramping in May and June 2026 at a reduced fee"

Anthropic is paying them 1.25 billion per month to serve Claude in their data centers. That's more revenue than Starlink. In fact that's their largest revenue stream lol.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#16
post #3

Crazy this company will IPO for >1B with such bad financials! That said, Starlink seems to be a real cash machine, not as good as ads but enough to support AI bets. 2025: - Revenue: $18.7B, up from $14.0B in 2024 - Operating loss: -$2.6B - Net loss: -$4.9B - Adjusted EBITDA: $6.6B - Operating cash flow: $6.8B - Capex: $20.7B Segment breakdown: - Starlink / Connectivity: $11.4B revenue, $4.4B operating income, $7.2B a…

Starlink is a cash machine because the costs are externalised to the rest of the company, all in it's a money pit.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#18
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I just can't, can't wait until this whole Musk fugazzi finally blows up. Be careful what you wish for. The collateral damage would be mind boggling.

So be it. What's the alternative ? Continue a bubble ? Ride on the 'FSD by the end of the year' or 'thousands of Optimus next year' for the next 10 years ? The guys is openly lying and clearly a drug addict at this point and people think he's not cooking the books ? Musk empire will end up being a much bigger scandal than Enron ever was. It's just a matter of time until it unfolds.

SpaceX and Tesla are different companies, fyi.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#19

So, a significant amount of self-dealing, and Elon Musk has an 85.1% voting share in the company. That sounds like a really great thing. There is no sarcasm in that previous statement. None at all.

One of the major reasons for fans of space exploration to be concerned about all this was the dilution of control that seemed inherent in an IPO, but since that seems to be fixed, I don't hate the idea any more.

Re: SpaceX S-1

#20
post #5
post #3

Crazy this company will IPO for >1B with such bad financials! That said, Starlink seems to be a real cash machine, not as good as ads but enough to support AI bets. 2025: - Revenue: $18.7B, up from $14.0B in 2024 - Operating loss: -$2.6B - Net loss: -$4.9B - Adjusted EBITDA: $6.6B - Operating cash flow: $6.8B - Capex: $20.7B Segment breakdown: - Starlink / Connectivity: $11.4B revenue, $4.4B operating income, $7.2B a…

The numbers overall are worse than I expected. I can't believe Serious People are talking about putting this in the market at a trilly. > Starlink seems to be a real cash machine It has been said more than once that Starlink financials cannot be analyzed apart from SpaceX financials. Very easy to move the launch costs from one entity to the other depending on whether it is more beneficial to show more revenue for Spa…

I can't believe that my index funds are going to be looted to pay for this turd.
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