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Hormuz closure could trigger 'agrifood shock', price crisis within a year

reuters.com

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Re: Hormuz closure could trigger 'agrifood shock', price crisis within a year

#11

Post by gambiting »

hersko wrote: post #9

Here are two articles Reuters wrote about how the war in Ukraine was going to do something similar in 2022[1][2]. Make of this what you will. [1] https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/FOOD/zjvqkgo... [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-war-ukraine-bla...

And like other articles pointed out, wealthy western countries will always just outbid poorer countries for their food. No one in Germany, Poland or the UK was going to go hungry without the grain or fertilizer from Ukraine - but it does mean we have a much tighter supply than before, and poorer countries got quite literally priced out. Combined with the reduction of foreign aid(not just by US) there is a humanitarian crisis going on in a lot of places as a direct consequence of this. This is "just" going to make the existing problems worse.

Re: Hormuz closure could trigger 'agrifood shock', price crisis within a year

#12

Post by Tyrubias »

hersko wrote: post #8
marcosdumay wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The IRGC wants the blockade for self-preservation No. The preservation was all done by the US attacking them. Everything on their part is just well motivated defense.

[flagged]

It is most definitely a defense if you use the same logic the US does. If the US can seize oil tankers going to and from Cuba and Venezuela and attack fishing boats in the name of national security, then Iran can definitely blockade the Strait of Hormuz in the name of defense.

Re: Hormuz closure could trigger 'agrifood shock', price crisis within a year

#13

Post by delecti »

hersko wrote: post #9

Here are two articles Reuters wrote about how the war in Ukraine was going to do something similar in 2022[1][2]. Make of this what you will. [1] https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/FOOD/zjvqkgo... [2] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-war-ukraine-bla...

Also worth noting that a deal was worked out a few months later, before things could get bad. https://www.npr.org/2022/07/22/1112880942/ukraine-grain-expo...

Re: Hormuz closure could trigger 'agrifood shock', price crisis within a year

#14

Post by bdcravens »

martythemaniak wrote: post #6

Tough problem! Perhaps the US commentariat should listen to Thomas Friedman's wisdom and start loudly hectoring the rest of the world to step up and fix this problem.

Or we could just accept defeat and leave.

Re: Hormuz closure could trigger 'agrifood shock', price crisis within a year

#16

Post by asfqrt »

rasHfd wrote: post #2

[flagged]

How are you going to discuss geopolitics here if attempts at explaining the stalling of the U.S. and Russia to defuse the conflict are censored.

Instead, the "Israel controls the world" narrative, repeated incidentally by many Western and pro-Russian outlets on Twitter and YouTube is the top comment.

So probably this censored comment is correct but outside the Overton Window.

Re: Hormuz closure could trigger 'agrifood shock', price crisis within a year

#17

Post by throw-the-towel »

PenguinCoder wrote: post #10
rasHfd wrote: post #2

[flagged]

> None of these autocratic countries care about their own populations. Trump has said so explicitly many times. Going to need a better source than a habitual liar.

Correction: Trump probably isn't even a liar, but a bullshitter. A liar, at the very least, understands whatever he's saying is not true; a bullshitter doesn't care at all about the relationship between his words and the truth, he just makes noise.

Re: Hormuz closure could trigger 'agrifood shock', price crisis within a year

#19

Post by rainworld »

rasHfd wrote: post #2

[flagged]

You, as many do, forgot to mention the root cause: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/us-iran-war-request-israel...

> The meek recent Senate protest means nothing. If the elites didn't want the war, the House and the Senate would have 2/3rd majorities to stop it.

Yesterday’s AIPAC-driven ouster of Rep. Thomas Massie should tell you why no one is trying to stop this and who these “elites” you speak of answer to.

> The IRGC wants the blockade for self-preservation among its own population to show it is resisting "The West".

They are not showing off. They are actively and successfully resisting “The West”. Which could only sustain 5 weeks of active hostilities, got nowhere, hurt its position in the ME severely, but still cannot concede. Which brings us back to the root cause.

Re: Hormuz closure could trigger 'agrifood shock', price crisis within a year

#20

Post by hersko »

Tyrubias wrote: post #12
hersko wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It is most definitely a defense if you use the same logic the US does. If the US can seize oil tankers going to and from Cuba and Venezuela and attack fishing boats in the name of national security, then Iran can definitely blockade the Strait of Hormuz in the name of defense.

You would not call the the US enforcing a blockade as a defensive tactic. It is offensive, as is what Iran is doing. Defensive would mean defending ships navigating the strait.
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