Earlier quoted context omitted.
OpenAI reported ~$20 billion annualized revenue for 2025, up from $6 billion the year before.
And that covers their model training and infrastructure costs?
exactly
OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
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Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#22At this point IPOs are mainly for unloading bags onto retail. Every institution who wanted a piece of these labs got in years ago and captured all the value.
Wise comment. 25 years working in PE showed me that retail investors are how you pay off losses.
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#23Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#24The summer of Trillion dollar IPO’s is upon us. OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX Will they eat each others potential capital appetite? Or is there just that much laying around for them all to gobble up the bag?
It depends at least partially on how much they're going to float. I think SpaceX is only planning about a 4% float, so even at $1.5T they only need around $60B. Which is a drop in the bucket.
EDIT - but that's just the IPO, I wasn't even thinking about how much insiders will want to sell after the lockup ends...
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#25Throughout the “AI bubble” talk in 2024 and 2025, I consistently argued that we were nowhere near the peak of the AI bubble. So far, that view has held up, as valuations are significantly higher today than they were in 2024 and 2025. If you look at the way the dotcom bubble unfolded, dotcom didn't take off until after Netscape IPOed in 1995. The market had 5 more years of growth until the collapse. And even after col…
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Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#26I'll believe it when I see it.
Anthropic or OpenAI IPOing is literally signing their own death certificate.
The valuation will go to zero as soon as they have to submit actual numbers instead of the salad of bullshit they usually serve investors.
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#27[deleted]
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#28The summer of Trillion dollar IPO’s is upon us. OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX Will they eat each others potential capital appetite? Or is there just that much laying around for them all to gobble up the bag?
It depends at least partially on how much they're going to float. I think SpaceX is only planning about a 4% float, so even at $1.5T they only need around $60B. Which is a drop in the bucket. EDIT - but that's just the IPO, I wasn't even thinking about how much insiders will want to sell after the lockup ends...
Is 100+ FPE the new normal?
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#29Can't wait to see those revenue numbers.
I’m less interested in revenue and more interested in their operational costs
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#30Throughout the “AI bubble” talk in 2024 and 2025, I consistently argued that we were nowhere near the peak of the AI bubble. So far, that view has held up, as valuations are significantly higher today than they were in 2024 and 2025. If you look at the way the dotcom bubble unfolded, dotcom didn't take off until after Netscape IPOed in 1995. The market had 5 more years of growth until the collapse. And even after col…
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If someone comes in and points out a bunch of valid similarities, are you going to start being nice, or are you just going to call that person's ideas stupid too?