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El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

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Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#12
post #3

There’s been so much climate alarmism since Al Gore decided to pivot to ‘hero of humanity’ that it barely registers for me now. I still have frozen rice and beans from covid. Hope they’re still good.

If you are a rich Westerner, you'll probably be fine. It's the poor that take the brunt when these sorts of emergencies happen.

No one is going to be fine.

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#13

I'm living in a New Mexico forest that is full of dead pinyon pine trees after a beetle blight caused by a long term drought. The wildfire danger is extreme. A super El Nino would be an answer to our prayers. I wouldn't choose it at the cost of millions dead, but for us it would be a gift from above. Not a pardon, but maybe a reprieve.

My concern is that even if it would temporarily alleviate the local drought conditions for some areas, it wouldn't reverse the long term trends towards hotter, drier conditions.

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#14
post #3

There’s been so much climate alarmism since Al Gore decided to pivot to ‘hero of humanity’ that it barely registers for me now. I still have frozen rice and beans from covid. Hope they’re still good.

Is it really alarmism when anyone alive for the last 30 years can clearly tell weather patterns are changing? To me this is like claiming someone in 1901 was an alarmist for talking about how dumping chemicals into our waterways was destroying them and dumping chemicals out the back of plants was creating polluted toxic ground as they observe increasing numbers of dead fish. And they were right, there are endless num…

I'm as big a doomer (realist?) as they come but I think the framing is misleading here - deaths due to natural disasters have gone down due to planning, infastructure, coordination, better warning systems, so merely stating that millions died last time feels like sensationalism

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#16
post #8

Just imagine how much energy is required to produce that band at planetary scale.

I'm imagining it as incremental amounts of a tiny fraction of the amount of energy that arrives daily on the planet from the sun.

I'm guessing the amount of energy is less of an issue than the cascading transformation chains the daily solar energy allocation bounces through, less of an issue than increasing insulation factors in the atmosphere, etc.

Would that be about right by your reckoning?

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#17

I'm living in a New Mexico forest that is full of dead pinyon pine trees after a beetle blight caused by a long term drought. The wildfire danger is extreme. A super El Nino would be an answer to our prayers. I wouldn't choose it at the cost of millions dead, but for us it would be a gift from above. Not a pardon, but maybe a reprieve.

the problem, as i understand it, is that an el nino will ratchet up the temperature and push us past the 1.5c threshold significantly

https://e360.yale.edu/digest/super-el-nino-climate-regime-sh...

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#19
post #3

There’s been so much climate alarmism since Al Gore decided to pivot to ‘hero of humanity’ that it barely registers for me now. I still have frozen rice and beans from covid. Hope they’re still good.

If you are a rich Westerner, you'll probably be fine. It's the poor that take the brunt when these sorts of emergencies happen.

>rich Westerner

Not quite.

These affluent countries torture themselves with terrible energy transition projects that jack up prices for everyone at the cost of more efficient alternatives.

Healthcare, nutrition, education and other programs do vastly more for quality of life improvements for the poor.

Re: El Niño is coming. The last time ocean temp. looked like this, millions died

#20
post #18

Stupid question: how do they know with such fidelity what the water temp was in the Pacific in 1877? It’s not like solid land where there are strata and whatnot that leave a geological record? Or is it?

It wasn't that long ago. Maybe someone stuck a thermometer down there.
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