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Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

natesilver.net

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Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#171

Post by albedoa »

ninth_ant wrote: post #31

> I did too much bragging in the media and didn’t anticipate the extent to which public opinion toward FiveThirtyEight would shift once we became a corporate-backed incumbent rather than an eccentric upstart Can’t speak for everyone else, but it wasn’t this for me. It was about 2016 presidential that lost me. He tries to justify this later about how theirs was better than other outlets but I don’t care. Call it emoti…

> Call it emotional, naive, unfair or whatever you want

We would need a pass from the mods lol.

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#172

Post by a_t48 »

bsimpson wrote: post #127
ngriffiths wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Discussion of stats models is always complicated by the fact that a lot of people will read "30%" as a "no" prediction and claim your model is wrong if the thing happens. On the one hand, one strategy is to "hide" the numbers a bit behind a blaring headline that says "we are not sure!!" It's a bit of an art to decide when to be "sure" or not. On the other hand, in research for example you can just say screw it, I car…

That's a core mechanic in games like Dispatch. People don't like seeing a 95% chance of winning and then losing. The game tweaks the odds, so certain thresholds become gimmes (something like "if the displayed odds are better than 75%, treat them as 100%").

Fire Emblem does something complex with averaging random numbers to do the same thing - a 95% chance to hit becomes 99.5, and the reverse for low percentages.

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#173

Post by amanaplanacanal »

oceanplexian wrote: post #109
amanaplanacanal wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you not have primaries where you are?

What position was Kamala Harris in the DNC Primaries before she was appointed as the General Election Candidate? First place? Second Place? Surely she must have been in the top 3?

Not sure what you think they should have done? There is no way to reorganize primaries that late in the year.

It totally sucks that nobody tried to convince Biden not to run again before the primaries started though.

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#174

Post by freediddy »

zombittack wrote: post #122

At this point in my life I have zero patience or sympathy for the story of a man selling his company to a massive conglomerate and then feeling betrayed or somehow sad/regretful when said conglomerate destroys it or weaponizes it. I'm simply tired of this hindsight virtue signaling. They don't care about us. That means even you, Nate Silver. Btw was a big fan back then! Signal and the Noise was a great book.

Cue the Mad Men meme: "THAT'S WHAT THE MONEY'S FOR!"

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#175

Post by teddyh »

slg wrote: post #170
teddyh wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What Viet Cong parallels? Whatever you mean, it can’t have been very visible to the audience, since clear Viet Cong sympathies would not have gone over well (at least not universally) in 1977-1983.

This 3 minute clip of a conversation between George Lucas and James Cameron might help. https://youtube.com/watch?v=fv9Jq_mCJEo

“Not available in your country.”

But what George Lucas claims to have thought (now many years later), is essentially irrelevant. What matters is how audiences interpret the movies when watching them, both at the time and now. If, as I strongly suspect, essentially nobody saw clear Viet Cong sympathies in the original trilogy, then the modern Star Wars differs significantly.

And this is my point. The politics of the original trilogy was cookie-cutter, incidental, and unimportant, whereas much of the modern Star Wars has political creeds, obvious symbolism and grandstanding all over the place, front and center. You may (or may not) agree with the politics of the new Star Wars, but you can’t deny that they are different.

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#176

Post by shermantanktop »

applfanboysbgon wrote: post #124
zombittack wrote: post #122

At this point in my life I have zero patience or sympathy for the story of a man selling his company to a massive conglomerate and then feeling betrayed or somehow sad/regretful when said conglomerate destroys it or weaponizes it. I'm simply tired of this hindsight virtue signaling. They don't care about us. That means even you, Nate Silver. Btw was a big fan back then! Signal and the Noise was a great book.

> I'm simply tired of this hindsight virtue signaling. Virtue signalling is a funny term. What, exactly, does it mean here? In what way is reminiscing about a venture that lasted 15 years of your life "virtue signalling"? It seems to be that word is trotted out as a meaningless cliche, something in the sense of "I don't like this thing, but I'll sound more sophisticated if I accuse it of this nebulous bad thing rathe…

“Virtue signaling” has become a thought-terminating cliche.

All it really amounts to is an accusation of insincerity motivated by vanity, which is a two-for-one ad hominem attack that allows the accuser to avoid responding to the actual point.

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#177

Post by AgentOrange1234 »

armchairhacker wrote: post #27
Octoth0rpe wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe this has to do with the leftward trend of the mainstream press. What mainstream press outlet has moved leftwards? I can't think of any, and I certainly am interested in knowing which those might be. Inversely, cbs, the ny times, and the washington post have all shifted rather noticeably rightward in the last 10 years.

According to AllSides, many outlets moved left, although some did move right: https://www.allsides.com/blog/AllSides-Media-Bias-Rating-Ove... It and https://mediabiasfactcheck.com say NYTimes “leans left” and is “left-center” respectively. What’s an example that you believe highlights NYTimes moving rightward?

This is a pretty comprehensive treatment: https://www.plutobooks.com/product/how-to-sell-a-genocide/

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#178

Post by pclmulqdq »

applfanboysbgon wrote: post #124
zombittack wrote: post #122

At this point in my life I have zero patience or sympathy for the story of a man selling his company to a massive conglomerate and then feeling betrayed or somehow sad/regretful when said conglomerate destroys it or weaponizes it. I'm simply tired of this hindsight virtue signaling. They don't care about us. That means even you, Nate Silver. Btw was a big fan back then! Signal and the Noise was a great book.

> I'm simply tired of this hindsight virtue signaling. Virtue signalling is a funny term. What, exactly, does it mean here? In what way is reminiscing about a venture that lasted 15 years of your life "virtue signalling"? It seems to be that word is trotted out as a meaningless cliche, something in the sense of "I don't like this thing, but I'll sound more sophisticated if I accuse it of this nebulous bad thing rathe…

The "virtue signaling" is signaling being a scrappy creative type who regrets/disliked the path he followed when he actually sold out to a big conglomerate at the first possible opportunity. The virtues being signaled are things like independence and grit.

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#179

Post by _carbyau_ »

halJordan wrote: post #162
fasterik wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's value in making more people aware of something, even if it appears obvious to you. It's possible that someone who doesn't share your views on Disney, or corporations more broadly, might have been familiar with FiveThirtyEight and will have their views changed by Nate Silver's account of the situation. There's also nothing wrong with someone reflecting on something they worked on for over a decade and identify…

I'll disagree. As an open forum, all responses are allowed, even telling someone to sleep in the bed they made. But it does bring up a good point. That too many people are trying to have their cake and eat it too. Any reasonable person does, or ought to know, the cycle 538 went through. And we need to stop giving the benefit of the doubt to reasonable people who say "well I'm the one who didn't"

Maybe I'm old but this smells like a new generation coming to terms with the concept of a sellout. It's not new.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selling_out

"While this perceived inauthenticity is viewed with scorn and contempt by members of the subculture, the definition of the term and to whom it should be applied is subjective. While the term is most associated with the 1970s- and 1980s-era punk and hardcore subculture, English use of the term originates in the late 19th century."

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#180

Post by cm2012 »

ninth_ant wrote: post #31

> I did too much bragging in the media and didn’t anticipate the extent to which public opinion toward FiveThirtyEight would shift once we became a corporate-backed incumbent rather than an eccentric upstart Can’t speak for everyone else, but it wasn’t this for me. It was about 2016 presidential that lost me. He tries to justify this later about how theirs was better than other outlets but I don’t care. Call it emoti…

If you use 538 data, on average you make money betting. Its more correct than not
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