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Doesn’t this violate commerce between states, effectively?
It does, but the constitution's already been shredded and it's dog-eat-dog in the political space right now, so we'll see how it goes.
For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting. We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider tr…
For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting. We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider tr…
I think you could make a case in separating the two, of course opening further discussion, but because sports betting takes place in a comparatively very controlled environment I think the risk profile is pretty different versus, idk, betting that the temperate will be at or above a certain point and then someone sticks a hair dryer on the thermostat[1]. Cheating can happen in sports of course, but the risk profile a…
So think really hard about what the problem with this whole concept might be...
as the article notes, prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC as a commodities futures contract, so I'm not sure how any state law survives a federal pre-emption challenge. On the other hand, it's a little unusual to see a federal agency suing to protect its turf. Would've expected a class action by a Minnesota user of the service to bring the challenge instead.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think you could make a case in separating the two, of course opening further discussion, but because sports betting takes place in a comparatively very controlled environment I think the risk profile is pretty different versus, idk, betting that the temperate will be at or above a certain point and then someone sticks a hair dryer on the thermostat[1]. Cheating can happen in sports of course, but the risk profile a…
> So you read an article "China disappears random person" and then at the end you click a button and bet whether that person is alive or dead or whatever. So think really hard about what the problem with this whole concept might be...
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There's plenty of legal gambling in Minnesota. To quote the Minnesota Legislative Reference Library it includes "horse racing, a card club at Canterbury Park, Indian tribal casinos, charitable gambling, and a state lottery." ( https://www.lrl.mn.gov/guides/guides?issue=gambling )
It’s hard to pretend this isn’t at least gambling-adjacent when most people are simply betting on outcomes.
For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting. We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider tr…
But I thought the Supreme Court said online sports betting was interstate commerce and out of the domain of state legislation. Or did I get that completely wrong?
> "congress can regulate sports gambling directly, but if it elects not to do so, each state is free to act on its own."