51–60 of 256 posts
as the article notes, prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC as a commodities futures contract, so I'm not sure how any state law survives a federal pre-emption challenge. On the other hand, it's a little unusual to see a federal agency suing to protect its turf. Would've expected a class action by a Minnesota user of the service to bring the challenge instead.
This is Don Jr's consulting fee at work.
For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting. We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider tr…
I think you could make a case in separating the two, of course opening further discussion, but because sports betting takes place in a comparatively very controlled environment I think the risk profile is pretty different versus, idk, betting that the temperate will be at or above a certain point and then someone sticks a hair dryer on the thermostat[1]. Cheating can happen in sports of course, but the risk profile a…
That's kind of the point I was getting that. That's not really an argument about prediction markets, it's about what things should we be allowed to bet on.
I'm looking at FanDuel right now and I can bet on 1v1 eSports games of FIFA. The bets aren't even just who will win, but it's things like how many goals will a team score or who will score first. During the last Superbowl books were offering bets on things like what color tie the announcers would wear. I get that there's maybe a slight difference between that and betting on what words a sports announcer will say during the broadcast, but IMO, you're splitting hairs. They're both very easily to manipulate and very open to insider trading.
I think you probably agree with this, but IMO, there needs to be two separate conversations. One, are prediction markets sportsbooks by another name? Two, are there certain markets that we should not allow betting on?
Personally, I think the answer to both of those is yes, but I think if you smush them together into one conversation it makes things really messy.
Of course, we all have to sit through another round of Silicon Valley pretending they've discovered some new exciting business model that's just vice.
Unlicensed gypsy cabs, SROs, shift work, patent medicines, narcotics dealing, customs fraud, and smuggling already had established market entrants I guess.
For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting. We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider tr…
Canterbury Park would like a word…
I wonder if it can really be enforced. It's clear that prediction markets are a scourge -- there seems to be no upside whatsoever.
> there seems to be no upside whatsoever There's the same upside as pretty much all other forms of gambling. Plenty of people enjoy it and it can be used to generate tax revenue for the state. Don't get me wrong, there's tons of harm that can come from it, but the arguments to allow them are essentially the same arguments for allowing sports betting.
For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting. We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider tr…
This has been banned for generations. It's called gambling. Of course, we all have to sit through another round of Silicon Valley pretending they've discovered some new exciting business model that's just vice.
Unlicensed gypsy cabs, SROs, shift work, patent medicines, narcotics dealing, customs fraud, and smuggling already had established market entrants I guess.
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There's plenty of legal gambling in Minnesota. To quote the Minnesota Legislative Reference Library it includes "horse racing, a card club at Canterbury Park, Indian tribal casinos, charitable gambling, and a state lottery." ( https://www.lrl.mn.gov/guides/guides?issue=gambling )
There should be a ban on the instagram reels showing gambling like it's not a big deal. They are deliberately targeting teens and it's quite sickening. If you work at one of these companies it's the same as working for a payday loan company. You are making blood money.
Isn't the stock market a prediction market as well?