[flagged]
Do explain the Somalia connection you perceive. Please, go on…
Here's some troll food for ya: he's reaching Hacker News level of "noticing"
/s
Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
31–40 of 256 posts
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#32I wonder if it can really be enforced. It's clear that prediction markets are a scourge -- there seems to be no upside whatsoever.
there is one upside, its a big incentive to indirectly leak things like album release dates and military operations. anything that helps get some secrets out is a positive in my book
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#33Isn't the stock market a prediction market as well?
The difference in my mind is that prediction markets and gambling are betting on outcomes, not long term behaviors. You could make the argument that they are the same, in the sense that buying a stock is "betting" on a company to do well, but I think you'd be making a silly argument. Stocks are intangible these days, but they were traditionally a physical thing that one would trade. If you're betting on prediction ma…
Stocks are shares of ownership. Now, in practice many people buy them as bets, but even those aren't really predictions. Prediction markets are time-boxed all-or-nothing plays. You are either correct, or you lose your entire stake.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#34For the record, Minnesota currently has a complete ban on sports betting.
We've seen a couple other states that allow sports betting go after prediction markets. Personally, I feel that any state that allows sports betting is going to struggle to argue a case to ban prediction markets because you're essentially arguing over implementation details. Even arguments that certain prediction markets are ripe for insider trading or morally wrong fall a bit flat when you realize that traditional sportsbooks let you bet on things like college basketball player props and the little league world series.
I'm still not sure Minnesota will win their case, but it feels like that detail gives them a lot better chance of winning compared to many other states.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#35Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#36Isn't the stock market a prediction market as well?
No, a stock is a share of ownership in a company.
Now yes, people bet on the derivative value of those ownership shares... but that also happens to basically every asset. If a stock is a prediction market, then so is corn, and gold, and your home.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#37Anyone taking bets on how that ban will last?
Anyone taking bets on whether that bet will be available in prediction markets by the end of the week?
I hope someone is. From the bill:
> EFFECTIVE DATE This section is effective August 1, 2026, and applies to crimes committed on or after that date.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#38I wonder if it can really be enforced. It's clear that prediction markets are a scourge -- there seems to be no upside whatsoever.
there is one upside, its a big incentive to indirectly leak things like album release dates and military operations. anything that helps get some secrets out is a positive in my book
No, this doesn't work. Predictions markets can only resolve to things that are publicly verifiable, so any leaked information is information that was destined to become public anyway. Furthermore, the leaker is disincentivized to leak in such a way that the act of leaking could compromise their insider knowlege; the structure of the markets means that leakers don't want you to have this information in any way that opponents could usefully invalidate.
They're just gambling. I'm not trying to argue for or against gambling here, but please stop trying to delude yourselves into thinking these gambling sites are anything other than gambling.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#39I wonder if it can really be enforced. It's clear that prediction markets are a scourge -- there seems to be no upside whatsoever.
> there seems to be no upside whatsoever
There's the same upside as pretty much all other forms of gambling. Plenty of people enjoy it and it can be used to generate tax revenue for the state.
Don't get me wrong, there's tons of harm that can come from it, but the arguments to allow them are essentially the same arguments for allowing sports betting.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#40> The prohibition extends to services supporting prediction markets, like virtual private networks, that could allow consumers to disguise their location and get around the ban.
I'm sorry, what the fuck?