Doesn’t this violate commerce between states, effectively?
It does, but the constitution's already been shredded and it's dog-eat-dog in the political space right now, so we'll see how it goes.
Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
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Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#12Isn't the stock market a prediction market as well?
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#13I wonder if it can really be enforced. It's clear that prediction markets are a scourge -- there seems to be no upside whatsoever.
Do you also believe there is no upside in crowdsourced information found in, say, commodities, equities and futures markets?
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#14Isn't the stock market a prediction market as well?
I think the stocks don't have a arbiter managing a discrete outcome between parties that don't have any KYC compliance.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#15I wonder if it can really be enforced. It's clear that prediction markets are a scourge -- there seems to be no upside whatsoever.
Do you also believe there is no upside in crowdsourced information found in, say, commodities, equities and futures markets?
Those are not the same as prediction markets
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#16I wonder if it can really be enforced. It's clear that prediction markets are a scourge -- there seems to be no upside whatsoever.
No upside whatsoever? Clearly you're not an insider trader.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#17I wonder if it can really be enforced. It's clear that prediction markets are a scourge -- there seems to be no upside whatsoever.
Do you also believe there is no upside in crowdsourced information found in, say, commodities, equities and futures markets?
Those markets create pressure to ensure that real physical goods and useful services are priced accurately. Prediction “markets“ are in my estimation no different than roulette.
If you cross your eyes hard enough, you could claim that roulette gambling provides economic pressure to ensure that roulette wheels are balanced evenly. But when the roulette wheel is Vanah White’s dress color, what does that mean? Charitably, it’s a fun pass time. Through a dystopian lens, prediction markets pressure all public figures to play a kind of Keynsian Beauty Contest with their own behavior. Like social cooling for the celebrity/owning class.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#18as the article notes, prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC as a commodities futures contract, so I'm not sure how any state law survives a federal pre-emption challenge. On the other hand, it's a little unusual to see a federal agency suing to protect its turf. Would've expected a class action by a Minnesota user of the service to bring the challenge instead.
I'm curious to see how this works out, because sports betting is _not_ in the CFTC's remit, and Kalshi etc's argument that states can't regulate them because they're not technically sports betting is contrary to the spirit of the law
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#19Isn't the stock market a prediction market as well?
The difference in my mind is that prediction markets and gambling are betting on outcomes, not long term behaviors. You could make the argument that they are the same, in the sense that buying a stock is "betting" on a company to do well, but I think you'd be making a silly argument. Stocks are intangible these days, but they were traditionally a physical thing that one would trade. If you're betting on prediction markets, there's nothing to trade after the event happens, just payouts.
Re: Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets
#20Anyone taking bets on how that ban will last?
Anyone taking bets on whether that bet will be available in prediction markets by the end of the week?