31–40 of 105 posts
I hope price increases will mean we see serious moves towards open source and/or on device models. Feels like that's where we should all be headed but the current subsidy is a distraction.
It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…
>The market is going to struggle to absorb It's very unlikely, part of the reason why valuations are so high is because there is so much money, not just in the US, but globally, that is desperately seeking a place to park.
It's time for Google/Elon/Softbank/sovereign wealth funds, etc to cash out.
For you, it's time to tilt to bond and value.
It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>The market is going to struggle to absorb It's very unlikely, part of the reason why valuations are so high is because there is so much money, not just in the US, but globally, that is desperately seeking a place to park.
See why it doesn’t trickle down?
It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…
>The market is going to struggle to absorb It's very unlikely, part of the reason why valuations are so high is because there is so much money, not just in the US, but globally, that is desperately seeking a place to park.
Public markets are a different animal all together.
There are some concerned there won’t be enough willing to invest. That is a real risk given people smell a bubble about to pop.
The other ironic risk is if the float is too small it creates an artificially high valuation by letting a thin, momentum-driven market price 100% of the cap table, which then collapses when lockups expire, supply floods in, and the real market discovers the stock is worth far less than the marginal buyers said it was.
For example there’s talk that in that scenario SpaceX could end up with a 5T valuation… for a company that did only $18.5B in revenue last year. Thats beyond irrational even under the most aggressive growth scenarios.
The next step of the grift is offloading this into the stock market so that the investors get the exit event.
They will need a lot of bagholders this time around.
I hope price increases will mean we see serious moves towards open source and/or on device models. Feels like that's where we should all be headed but the current subsidy is a distraction.
Realistically Apple needs to put a few teams on it, and have built in support for running LLMs on OSX.
I assume if you integrate this on an OS level you might be able to pull off some additional tricks. So far most of the tools for running LLMs locally have been driven by volunteers or very small startups.
Microsoft could also do this, but they're too busy trying to upsell everyone. Microsoft wants to sell you on paying for each token.
It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…
Money wouldn’t just be diverted from other US stocks though.
Foreign money has increasing buying power as USD weakens against certain currencies and the upside of these IPOs is certainly more attractive to global investors than parking money is lack luster real-estate or bond or cash alternatives.
TINA (to US stock market) and all that.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
How is that an issue? Many funds that replicate an index are not doing full replication anyway. They do some kind of sampling that includes way fewer stocks than defined in the index. What would stop a fund from just not including those stocks because of sampling? Or waiting for time to settle, since even with full physical replication, they are not required to jump in and buy immediately after IPO.
Index funds make legal commitments to replicate the entire index. I have no idea why you think they use sampling. The whole point of an index fund is I'm not paying someone to try to guess what stocks are going to under/over perform the S&P. And when they are required to buy is not really a mystery either. they have very little discretion.