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Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

vincentschmalbach.com

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Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#21

Post by vincent_s »

vincent_s wrote: post #18
cmiles8 wrote: post #3

It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…

Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX all want to IPO within this year. There's just not enough money in the market to buy all those shares. So people might sell their shares in other companies to buy in at the IPO, then when the next one goes public they might sell the shares they just bought to jump onto the next one and so on. I don't think that there was a situation like this ever before.

Another scenario would be that they release very little shares but because of their market cap they make up a significant portion of an index so index funds are forced to buy a lot of their shares which would drive prices to insane heights.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#22

Post by re-thc »

twalla wrote: post #19
cmiles8 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

? No. These companies are not publicly traded yet so they are not in these indices. Funds are fighting to keep them out so they’re not required to buy stocks they think will tank.

There is indirect exposure to Anthropic/OpenAI through all the incestuous partnerships between hyperscalers and NVDA

Exactly. Google has SpaceX stock.

To make matters worse all the banks, insurers and investment firms in that S&P list are likely in there somewhere too.

I'm sure I'm missing a whole lot more.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#23

Post by spiderfarmer »

WarmWash wrote: post #15
cmiles8 wrote: post #3

It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…

>The market is going to struggle to absorb It's very unlikely, part of the reason why valuations are so high is because there is so much money, not just in the US, but globally, that is desperately seeking a place to park.

See why it doesn’t trickle down?

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#24

Post by miroljub »

afavour wrote: post #12

I hope price increases will mean we see serious moves towards open source and/or on device models. Feels like that's where we should all be headed but the current subsidy is a distraction.

There is no subsidy in interference. Serving existing models is a highly profitable business. The proofs are many independent companies serving models for profit.

What is expensive is model development and training, but again, that's nothing inherent to technology. It's just that Anthropic and other western vendors made a business decision to use cheap investors money to brute force a new model development and market grab instead of investing in cost optimizations for model training and inference like Chinese model developers and providers.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#26

Post by JumpCrisscross »

vincent_s wrote: post #18
cmiles8 wrote: post #3

It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…

Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX all want to IPO within this year. There's just not enough money in the market to buy all those shares. So people might sell their shares in other companies to buy in at the IPO, then when the next one goes public they might sell the shares they just bought to jump onto the next one and so on. I don't think that there was a situation like this ever before.

> There's just not enough money in the market to buy all those shares

What are you basing this on?

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#27

Post by HWR_14 »

miroljub wrote: post #20
cmiles8 wrote: post #3

It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…

How is that an issue? Many funds that replicate an index are not doing full replication anyway. They do some kind of sampling that includes way fewer stocks than defined in the index. What would stop a fund from just not including those stocks because of sampling? Or waiting for time to settle, since even with full physical replication, they are not required to jump in and buy immediately after IPO.

Index funds make legal commitments to replicate the entire index. I have no idea why you think they use sampling.

The whole point of an index fund is I'm not paying someone to try to guess what stocks are going to under/over perform the S&P.

And when they are required to buy is not really a mystery either. they have very little discretion.

Re: Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

#30

Post by [deleted] »

vincent_s wrote: post #18
cmiles8 wrote: post #3

It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…

Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX all want to IPO within this year. There's just not enough money in the market to buy all those shares. So people might sell their shares in other companies to buy in at the IPO, then when the next one goes public they might sell the shares they just bought to jump onto the next one and so on. I don't think that there was a situation like this ever before.

[deleted]
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