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The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

simonwillison.net

431–440 of 631 posts

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#431
How much of what is being generated by LLMs is actually value add? My perception is there are lots of great experiments, but little real value.

+ Developers are more productive, but are you all leaving work at 3p and enjoying a new found sense of work-life balance?

+ Companies are investing heavily in AI, yet I'm paying more for the same thing. Jamie Dimon still pays me 0% on my checking despite spending billions on AI.

It may be that simply adopting AI isn't enough. Could new startups that are born-in-AI buck this trend? I wonder what Clayton Christensen would say if he were still around.

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's since November 2025, the so called "inflection point", that I'm still wondering for who coding agents become "really good". You can dig up my past comments semi-arguing with simonw where I said AI just isn't good enough yet, but lately I've been using Codex mostly just to review existing Godot/GDScript code: https://github.com/InvadingOctopus/comedot and now I'd say that in this day and age one would have to b…

> I've been on the $20 ChatGPT plan for about a year now, and only started using Codex since like maybe 4 months ago, almost always on the latest model with "Extended Thinking" or "Extra High", because I want my shared code to be as correct as possible because everything else I do depends on it, and I only hit limits like 2 times in the last 3 months. I've recently tried codex, and I have it set to plan mode with 5.5…

Like I said most of my prompts cover 1-3 files at most, rarely more

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a really fun day yesterday because anthropics limits on their normal 20$ subscription allowed me to play around for the whole day without hitting a limit. Its 'production' code because its a small browser game which has very small to 0 requirements on security and being perfect but high requirements on 'ever even doing this' and 'fun'. The code it generated hat 0 compiletime errors. I was able to descripe 10 th…

I don’t see how “fun projects” and “take our jobs” fit together in any voluntary sentence.

Firstly i wrote examples but also etc. so its more than just that. It is also refactoring, cicd pipelines and co.

2 years ago when I prompted something, it had compile time errors left and right. Took me 3-10 iterations to even get it running.

Now its one shoting a lot. Including websides, refactorings, etc.

The question is what is missing? How far are we that it can handle huge code bases vs. smaller ones? How far are we that it can comprehend the whole architecture and doesn't try to put a service in a wrong place just becaus the context is too small?

Mythos is 10 Trillion, that might be already pushing it.

95% might be not enough for someone in sense of "yeah i can't do the 95% and i can't do the 5% either the AI can do 100% or i still need Kevin with his knowledge even if its just for the last 5%"

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This analogy was trotted out every time someone complained about PHP. It wasn't true then, and it isn't true now.

I don't see how it cannot be true. Are you claiming that every developer who uses the same LLM harness + model would produce equal code, regardless of the prompt? That's clearly not true in my experience, and I cannot understand how it could be either. And if that's not true, then it's quite literally about how you're holding this hammer.

There's a cowboy artist that paints with his penis and does amazing work. If I tried that it'd turn out incredibly poorly, I prefer to paint with paintbrushes.

Just because the naked cowboy can paint well with just his penis, doesn't mean a penis is the right tool for painting. It doesn't matter how you hold your penis, it's not the right tool.

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#435

Last 6 months is humanity losing control of LLMs. - Memory market cornering which mitigated the adoption of local AI despite great open model being released. - Fast penetration of IP exfiltrating tools in companies world-wide. - Developers producing more code that they can read. - Autonomous agents killing Open Source by siphoning the attention economy - Autonomous agents destroyed online communities (including HN) -…

Metal Gear Solid 2 was quaint and funny until 2025.

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#436
post #430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wrote coding job. And its true for coding jobs. Your Product Manager is not a coding job. Your Product Owner is not a coding job. vibe-kanban exists you could already do a proper experiment letting your PO maintain a vibe-kanban board with proper requirements and see how an agent progresses. But 5% is often enough wwhat breaks it. Doesn't help much when your PM, PO or CEO or CTO have no clue about coding harnesses,…

I dont have PMs or POs in my firm fella. Im hyper efficient. You clearly are not and are full of it. If youre only doing 5%, you should only get paid for that. lol. Are you happy to take a salary drop?

Whats wrong with you? Why the change of tone?

I'm a Cloud ARchitect with experience in coding (15 years) and infrastructure (10 years) and startup founder...

If you don't comprehend what i write, feel free to ask but don't be dick?

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#437

> The coding agents got really good It's since november 2025, the so called "inflection point", that I'm still wondering for who coding agents become "really good". All I observe they got better at tool call and answering questions about big codebases, especially if the question has a vague pattern to search, and they're superuseful for that! For generating production code even with a lot of steering and baby sitting…

The polarization comes from the very disparate coding experiences and output quality that different people find when using these tools. For example, I've had the opposite experience of yours, generating very high quality work using Claude (such as https://github.com/kstenerud/yoloai ). Just in dealing with all the bugs and idiosyncrasies in the technologies I'm using, the agent has been a godsend in discovering and c…

A standard Docker container, with the container UID/GID mirrored to the host user, holding the host user's API keys, with the host user's project directory bind-mounted. The tooling doesn't even use gVisor / Kata by default which could implement the claim made, but in reality this entire project appears to be security theater.

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#438

About Pelicans on bicycles: > there’s zero chance any AI lab would train a model for such a ridiculous task Well, I think this guy's tests have got enough visibility that I wouldn't be surprised if some AI models are trained on it specifically...

yeah, simon's blogs have been on the front page multiple times now, I wouldnt be surprised if all of them added s apecial case for it

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#439
post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or they don’t know CSS. Amazing how the LLM is godly with things I don’t understand, and falls over completely when it works in my domain… I wonder why that is /s

Yes, it's a mystery, isn't it? Specifically for CSS, these bots really want to just barf out tailwind-style crap. If you deviate even slightly from the standards and practices of the modal front-end developer, you quickly see how these things are brittle, and no amount of prompting and cajoling will truly affect their behavior. In this case, you're kind of seeing the downstream affects of saying "no, do NOT do tailwi…

> these bots really want to just barf out tailwind-style crap.

I get it. The LLMs struggle most with state. They don’t have a real fix for that yet. People generally compensate by shoving everything into context, and making the context window as large as possible, which half-works.

Tailwind happens to be “stateless” CSS framework. Nothing uses anything else, nothing is shared, nothing is reused, nothing stacks. It’s super easy to write, since you don’t have to worry about anything else, and the styles are all duplicated dynamically and ‘compiled’ — to the point you can copy-and-paste a HTML block with tailwindcss classes from anywhere into your site, and it mostly ‘works’).

—-

Tailwind is uniquely suited for LLM use, because the problem Tailwind solves is the problem juniors (and now, LLMs) struggle with most. An LLM can happily write up a bunch of styles, without knowing any of the rest of the project state, and if it’s tailwind, it will mostly sort-of work.

It just also happens to be bad practice, this style of development is the exact thing we told everyone not to do for two decades. (“Inline styles are bad! Duplicate styles everywhere is bad! It’s bloated, it’s inefficient. It’s the mark of inexperienced front end. Don’t inline styles. Unless it’s a tailwindcss class, you can inline those styles, they get a pass I guess”).

We used to measure our JS and CSS in kilobytes, by 2011 standards this would be “far too bloated for production use”. For the old-timers, it can be hard to grapple with the idea that we’re just purposefully doing ‘worse’ front-end intentionally now. The calculation changes when half your content/styles/front-end is LLM-generated, and therefore completely disposable. Very “they don’t make them like they used to” vibes.

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re missing the point. You claimed high quality and provided a repo. Did you not expect someone to actually look and critique it? Whether the visual bugs are a deal breaker or not isn’t the point. The point is that’s not high quality code, it may work. But it’s not code I would ship at my job and therefore it’s not high enough quality for anyone serious

Hey that's fine. You're free to make whatever judgment you wish. But I still stand by the quality of my code, including here. You and I don't need to agree. What decades of managing codebases (public and private, huge and small) has taught me is that there will always be an endless list of bugs and feature ideas and nice-to-haves and technical debt pressures in any given project. You'll never get to them all, so you…

> But I still stand by the quality of my code, including here. You and I don't need to agree.

You aren’t having a disagreement with a person. You’re having a disagreement with reality.

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