Live data from Hacker News

The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

simonwillison.net

31–40 of 631 posts

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#34

Is the RLVR the key breakthrough for the uplift or is there more to it? Does that suggest the uplift was only for things that are easily verifiable like code?

RL we're gonna find out will get abandoned cuz we don't even know what is getting "aligned", just my naive gut feeling don't take it seriously

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#35

Apart from GLM 5.1 and Qwen 3.6, there are other Chinese models that are noteworthy: Kimi K2.6, Xiaomi MiMo V2.5 Pro, Deepseek v4 and MiniMax M2.7.

100% true - I only had five minutes so I had to edit it down to just a couple, but all of those models are excellent and keep leap-frogging each other.

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#36

I wonder how much the 'inflection point' is a thing vs marketing. I'm sure the models got somewhat better, but even now when I'm trying to 'vibe code' a game with the latest models (combination of Codex w/ gpt5.5 and gpt5.3-codex), they really do struggle. They definitely get something barebones up and running, but it's far from a fully fledged application.

Purely vibe code won't work. You need to define an excellent architecture, have great specs, a solid plan, divide the plan in small phases that fit well in a context window, use TDD and automated code reviews for implementing each phase, do QA and some code review.

At any point you need to have agents review, verify and test the other agents output and iterate until the output is perfect.

And also, have good e2e tests.

IMO, if you don't spend at least a few tens of millions tokens per day, you aren't doing it properly.

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#37

I wonder how much the 'inflection point' is a thing vs marketing. I'm sure the models got somewhat better, but even now when I'm trying to 'vibe code' a game with the latest models (combination of Codex w/ gpt5.5 and gpt5.3-codex), they really do struggle. They definitely get something barebones up and running, but it's far from a fully fledged application.

It's very real. Just in the past 2 months or so IMO there's been a pretty big improvement in claude for local dev (although I think a lot of that is less model strength and more harness capability). 1m context is a huge difference (~30 min vs 2.5hr between compact significantly increases the scope of what I get the AI to do before it goes stupid). The other biggest difference I've noticed is a better balance of actua…

>1m context is a huge difference (~30 min vs 2.5hr between compact significantly increases the scope of what I get the AI to do before it goes stupid)

I think the smart zone stays within the first 100k tokens, no mater if the context window is 240k or 1 million.

I divide the work to fit within that 100k and use subagent for the tasks.

Re: The last six months in LLMs in five minutes

#38

I wonder how much the 'inflection point' is a thing vs marketing. I'm sure the models got somewhat better, but even now when I'm trying to 'vibe code' a game with the latest models (combination of Codex w/ gpt5.5 and gpt5.3-codex), they really do struggle. They definitely get something barebones up and running, but it's far from a fully fledged application.

I remember this very clearly myself. Before opus 4.5, I was doing a lot of hand holding and was coding a lot myself, but I have not written code since that day more or less. I did write some stuff myself just to learn how the enigma encryption machine worked, so wrote myself to learn. But professionally, I stopped coding in November.

[dead]
Post reply on HN