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Iran starts Bitcoin-backed ship insurance for Hormuz strait

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Re: Iran starts Bitcoin-backed ship insurance for Hormuz strait

#251

Post by nicoburns »

nradov wrote: post #231
HWR_14 wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assisting the US with regard to Iran is phenomenally unpopular. The increase in energy prices isn't outweighing people's desire not to have their country assist.

And yet national leaders do phenomenally unpopular things all the time when they decide it's necessary. In this particular case it's mostly moot because none of the other impacted countries really has the capability to act regardless of popularity or lack thereof. Like the UK chose to spend all of their money on nationalized healthcare instead of the military. I don't mean that in a critical or negative way, on balan…

Would it not be pretty counterproductive for other countries to assist the US in this case? That seems only likely to prolong / exacerbate the war. The US giving up would be much faster.

Re: Iran starts Bitcoin-backed ship insurance for Hormuz strait

#252

Post by infamia »

bparsons wrote: post #211
nradov wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern US surface warships such as the DDG-52 Arleigh Burke class are pretty survivable. The Iranians (and their Houthi proxies) have made sustained attacks on them and don't seem to have hit anything. And a single hit would be highly unlikely to sink such as vessel: we're not talking about something like the Russian Moskva cruiser that was crewed by drunks and had inoperative defensive systems. The real problem is t…

The Iranians (and their Houthi proxies) have made sustained attacks on them and don't seem to have hit anything. That's because the US has kept the surface combatants far back from the Persian Gulf for the duration of the war. As far as we know, they have attempted to run the strait twice and had to turn back because they were under sustained attack. I assume these ships can defend themselves for some period of time,…

> There is a reason the US Navy fled the Persian Gulf on Feb 26 and has not returned since.

Two US Arleigh Burke Class Destroyers transited Hormuz a couple of weeks ago without damage and are still there last I heard. The Iranians were really upset, but couldn't do anything to stop it.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2-us-navy-destroyers-transit-st...

Re: Iran starts Bitcoin-backed ship insurance for Hormuz strait

#254

Post by rstuart4133 »

WarmWash wrote: post #170
everdrive wrote: post #20

Much of the post-WW2 American-led world order was founded partially on the United States using its military to keep international waters open. It would be quite stunning Iran defeated the united states in this sense. The military might is there, but this administration clearly had no idea what they were getting themselves into and did not plan accordingly. (and does not have the will or public support to do so) The b…

The gamble, which was certainly egged on by Israel, was that two stars aligned and it was high time to strike Iran. The first star was intense civilian unrest, the months leading up to the strikes was marked by riots and protests. The second star was the meeting of Iran's top brass in one spot at one time, both of which Israel knew about. It was almost certainly sold to Trump as a domino event, where the US would blo…

> what appeared to be a moderate-low risk attempt.

It looks like it appeared that way to Trump. But you make it sound like it appeared that way to most people. As one of those "most people", I can say that's wrong. The reaction of most people was "WTF is Trump thinking?".

It's been clear he's not the sharpest tool in the shed for a while. But he should be surrounded by very bright people for are able to provide frank and fearless advice. Looks like he fired most of those people, and whats left have been cowered into sycophants.

Re: Iran starts Bitcoin-backed ship insurance for Hormuz strait

#256

Post by EthanHeilman »

mrandish wrote: post #59
everdrive wrote: post #20

Much of the post-WW2 American-led world order was founded partially on the United States using its military to keep international waters open. It would be quite stunning Iran defeated the united states in this sense. The military might is there, but this administration clearly had no idea what they were getting themselves into and did not plan accordingly. (and does not have the will or public support to do so) The b…

I don't know enough about the current state of naval warfare but I've assumed this is related to the asymmetry that's emerged around protecting capital warships, especially in the scenario of a very narrow strait and a long enemy-controlled coastline. They can shoot relatively low-cost, short-range guided missiles from anywhere along the coast. Even if a warship stops the vast majority of them, only one has to get th…

The bigger issue is the tankers. The US Navy isn't going to be happy patrolling the strait sure, but even if they did they wouldn't be able to protect the tankers enough for it to make sense for tankers to take the risk.

The last time this happened the US opened the strait by accidentally shooting down an Iranian passenger plane after sinking a large chunk of Iranian navy. The Iranians assumed the US shoot the passenger plane down on intentionally as a war crime and assumed the US would was planning to escalate the conflict. This fear deterred further Iranian attacks on tankers.

This isn't going to work this time because the US started the war by performing of the most serious escalations possible, a decapitation strike against top Iranian leadership in a surprise attack using a diplomatic negotiation as cover. The US did this while the strait was open and Iran was considering a peace deal.

Threats of escalation are no longer effective at deterring Iran because Iran now believes the US will take such actions regardless of what Iran does. What does Iranian leadership have to lose by staying the course? Very little. On the other hand if Iranian leadership back down, they loose all their leverage, they look weak internally, they look weak externally and the US might decide to attack them out of the blue again.

This is why decapitation strikes are generally not done. They remove options and they undermine deterrence and paint belligerents into a corner.

Re: Iran starts Bitcoin-backed ship insurance for Hormuz strait

#257

Post by [deleted] »

bparsons wrote: post #211
nradov wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Modern US surface warships such as the DDG-52 Arleigh Burke class are pretty survivable. The Iranians (and their Houthi proxies) have made sustained attacks on them and don't seem to have hit anything. And a single hit would be highly unlikely to sink such as vessel: we're not talking about something like the Russian Moskva cruiser that was crewed by drunks and had inoperative defensive systems. The real problem is t…

The Iranians (and their Houthi proxies) have made sustained attacks on them and don't seem to have hit anything. That's because the US has kept the surface combatants far back from the Persian Gulf for the duration of the war. As far as we know, they have attempted to run the strait twice and had to turn back because they were under sustained attack. I assume these ships can defend themselves for some period of time,…

[deleted]

Re: Iran starts Bitcoin-backed ship insurance for Hormuz strait

#258

Post by thinkingtoilet »

w29UiIm2Xz wrote: post #185
everdrive wrote: post #20

Much of the post-WW2 American-led world order was founded partially on the United States using its military to keep international waters open. It would be quite stunning Iran defeated the united states in this sense. The military might is there, but this administration clearly had no idea what they were getting themselves into and did not plan accordingly. (and does not have the will or public support to do so) The b…

The power wasn't there in the first place if the administration couldn't defend Hormuz. It's all the same capital and resources that prior administrations had. The actual blunder was exposing that weakness to the world. We could have done nothing and reputation would've carried the idea that we could.

The power is there, they just don't want to pay the cost in terms of money, lives, and polling popularity. This was done on the whim of a man-child throwing a tantrum, backed by his deeply racist hatred towards Obama. There was no plan other than his usual bullying tactics. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad we are not investing insane amounts of money and large lives into this, but we absolutely could win this if we wanted to pay the cost.

Re: Iran starts Bitcoin-backed ship insurance for Hormuz strait

#259

Post by jcranmer »

Jensson wrote: post #65
nerfbatplz wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

American destroyers and aircraft carriers have been chased away from the Strait multiple times now. Hilariously the USS George HW Bush had to go the long way around Africa rather than risk transiting the Bab El Mandeb after the Houthis defeated the US Navy last year.

In what way were they chased away? Iran tried to sink them and didn't hit any shots, and many on Iran's side died trying. Many IRGC soldiers dying and not even scratching the paint on US vessels doesn't show US to be weak. > Hilariously the USS George HW Bush had to go the long way around Africa rather than risk transiting the Bab El Mandeb after the Houthis defeated the US Navy last year. Valuing the lives of your c…

> USA can win this war with barely any casualties

What do you mean by "win"? What strategic goals can the US achieve in this war? We're at a point where merely achieving status quo ante bellum--i.e., Iran doesn't charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz--seems to require giving concessions elsewhere.

In many ways, this looks like the American version of Pearl Harbor--a stunning tactical victory that is simultaneously a crushing strategic loss.

Re: Iran starts Bitcoin-backed ship insurance for Hormuz strait

#260

Post by kajman »

myko wrote: post #145
nkrisc wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well the strait was open and freely navigable before trump bombed them. What Iran has learned from this is they don’t need sympathy, they need to exercise the leverage they do have, and there’s no way they’re ever going to willingly give that leverage up - they’ve seen what would happen.

Some idiot tore up the JCPOA, the only thing really preventing Iran from getting nukes. The lesson here is: get nukes

I used to see so many headlines about how North Korea was a breath away from causing global catastrophe. And then they got theirs. I don't see much now.
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