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AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

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Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#61

Post by shruubi »

benedictevans wrote: post #47
asrqwj wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it isn't. The implication is that pro-AI people can take revenge. He knows he is secure with his opinions. He even paraphrases Andreesen's title "software will eat the world". He has repeatedly appeared at a16z. It is very secure to be pro-AI while the rest has to resort to unregistered typewriters like in the Soviet Union.

[flagged]

You are absolutely not a "random person on the internet", you are a very public figure with the wealth and influence available to you that could allow you to take revenge on someone who says something you don't like in real, life-altering ways. Now, I'm not saying that you would do that, but it is a shocking lack of self-awareness to think of yourself as a random person on the internet.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#62

Post by 7777777phil »

btucker wrote: post #4

You can find the 4 versions of Benedict's deck here: https://www.ben-evans.com/presentations I appreciate the temporal view into this thinking. My interpretation: Nov 2024: Don’t dismiss this; it may be the next platform shift. But the actual questions are still unsettled: scaling, usefulness, deployment, and business model. May 2025: The model layer is already showing signs of commoditization, so the important quest…

I appreciate Evans’ work and wrote an “antithesis” to the Nov 2024 iteration of this. Given the pivot to “models look likely to become infrastructure” I might want to update my take.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#63

Post by vessenes »

btucker wrote: post #4

You can find the 4 versions of Benedict's deck here: https://www.ben-evans.com/presentations I appreciate the temporal view into this thinking. My interpretation: Nov 2024: Don’t dismiss this; it may be the next platform shift. But the actual questions are still unsettled: scaling, usefulness, deployment, and business model. May 2025: The model layer is already showing signs of commoditization, so the important quest…

I didn’t know there were a sequence of these decks; thanks — it’s helpful to think of them as updating snapshots in time.

The main thing that stands out to me on these graphs is just . how . early we still are - looking at industries like legal which in my mind are certainly going to be massively disrupted, and seeing the very low usage rates vs. tech (which still shows less than a quarter of tech people using AI daily) — we are in for a lot more change than we’ve seen so far.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#64

Post by jurgenburgen »

dwa3592 wrote: post #43
dwa3592 wrote: post #13

>>Companies report ‘annualised’ revenue, defined as sum of previous 4 weeks multiplied by 13. why is it multiplied by 13?

this took a bit of a mathematical turn because of my poor phrasing. what i was actually intrigued by was how does revenue of 4 weeks become "annualized" by just multiplying it with 13.

Usually startups like to talk about Adjusted Annual Revenue in fundraising and other hype materials. There’s no regulation around this metric so whatever their investors are willing to accept is what they use. One way to measure it is to take the past 4 weeks revenue and multiply by 13.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#65

Post by benedictevans »

AlecSchueler wrote: post #60
hennell wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

? That appears to be arbitrary eras then arbitrary companies from that era. Do you think Amazon and Google disappeared after 2001? Do you think databricks is now bigger than IBM? Change might be inevitable, but I'm not sure your list shows or proves that.

> Do you think Amazon and Google disappeared after 2001? I don't think that was implied at all, just that the context of the web is what allowed those companies to pop up.

With each platform shift, some of the old players disappear and some of them become irrelevant - IBM is still with us but no one cares

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#66

Post by benedictevans »

shruubi wrote: post #61
benedictevans wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

You are absolutely not a "random person on the internet", you are a very public figure with the wealth and influence available to you that could allow you to take revenge on someone who says something you don't like in real, life-altering ways. Now, I'm not saying that you would do that, but it is a shocking lack of self-awareness to think of yourself as a random person on the internet.

This is hilarious. What am I going to do? Hire a hitman? if you’re going be a dick on the Internet, you should be a dick using your real name. I don’t think that’s a threat.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#67

Post by throwaw12 »

hennell wrote: post #31
throwaw12 wrote: post #2

> What happened the last time that everything changed? * Hardware era (pre 1995s) -> IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Apple * Internet era (1994-2001) -> Amazon, Google, Meta, Salesforce * Mobile era (iPhone+ era) -> Uber, Mobile Games, Youtube, Snapchat, Tiktok, Airbnb * Cloud era (AWS+ era) -> AWS, GCP, Azure, Snowflake, Databricks and bunch of other data & database startups AI era (ChatGPT+ era) -> Change is inevitable

? That appears to be arbitrary eras then arbitrary companies from that era. Do you think Amazon and Google disappeared after 2001? Do you think databricks is now bigger than IBM? Change might be inevitable, but I'm not sure your list shows or proves that.

What I wanted to say is every era gave birth to something big.

AI era will get its own winners, but there will be some new big players as a result of this era I think

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#68

Post by ffsm8 »

dist-epoch wrote: post #41
nmfisher wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

antirez running (quantized) DeepSeek V4 Pro on a Mac Studio M3 Ultra with 512GB of RAM: https://bsky.app/profile/antirez.bsky.social/post/3mlzwmvlov... It's much closer than you think. We're going to see specialized hardware in the next 24 months capable of running 2025-era frontier models. That's big.

That specialized hardware will be scooped up by AI data-centers, just like RAM is today.

The 512 GB ram studio can't even be purchased anymore. It's been delisted

https://www.apple.com/shop/buy-mac/mac-studio

Same with the Mac mini. entirely removed from all store references

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#69

Post by benedictevans »

dwa3592 wrote: post #43
dwa3592 wrote: post #13

>>Companies report ‘annualised’ revenue, defined as sum of previous 4 weeks multiplied by 13. why is it multiplied by 13?

this took a bit of a mathematical turn because of my poor phrasing. what i was actually intrigued by was how does revenue of 4 weeks become "annualized" by just multiplying it with 13.

There’s a bunch of fuzzy metrics here, which is one reason I turned it back into a monthly number. The other issue (as you’ll see on the chart) is that Anthropic and openAI are recognising revenue in completely different ways.

Re: AI eats the world (Spring 26) [pdf]

#70

Post by ffsm8 »

7777777phil wrote: post #62
btucker wrote: post #4

You can find the 4 versions of Benedict's deck here: https://www.ben-evans.com/presentations I appreciate the temporal view into this thinking. My interpretation: Nov 2024: Don’t dismiss this; it may be the next platform shift. But the actual questions are still unsettled: scaling, usefulness, deployment, and business model. May 2025: The model layer is already showing signs of commoditization, so the important quest…

I appreciate Evans’ work and wrote an “antithesis” to the Nov 2024 iteration of this. Given the pivot to “models look likely to become infrastructure” I might want to update my take.

Didn't you mean Claude take? It's ai written after all...
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