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Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets

theguardian.com

61–70 of 109 posts

Re: Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets

#61
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You actually own something when you buy stock.

You own the same thing when you buy a lottery ticket. You own a paper entitling you to an unknown amount of future money based on uncertain events.

When I own a stock I also vote on the board of directors and so I have long term influence on the future. (I don't agree with stocks where I don't get that vote, or where my vote is meaningless because insiders have more control than their ownership share - even though they exist. Yes I know the amount of stock I own is trivial, but I still at least have it)

Re: Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets

#62
post #38
post #25

I'm surprised prediction markets don't get more support here on HN. There's a lot of benefit in having a probability estimate for various kinds of events. One example of many: https://polymarket.com/event/may-2026-temperature-increase-c These markets are a straightforward way to cut through all the noise of the current media conglomerates. Rather than getting bombarded by inflated headlines a glance at polymarket or…

Funny, someone cheated a temperature-related bet a few weeks ago: https://www.npr.org/2026/04/23/nx-s1-5797876/polymarket-pari...

It's very strange that they think prediction markets "cut through all the noise of the current media conglomerates" and yet the temperature bet is easily manipulated, and any bets about war and other foreign affairs are resolved by reading news reports from the field and not some new group of independent arbitrators or investigators. The war journalists are even being pressured by the gamblers to change their reporting https://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-o...

Re: Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets

#63
post #10
post #4

can we stop calling them "prediction markets" and please call them what they actually are: gambling

Honest question which I think is at the heart of the question: What’s the difference between these and NYSE / Robinhood?

They do both involve taking risks for money admittedly but there are crucial differences.

You actually participate meaningfully in the outcome via investing instead of just price discovery and the successes are derived from the valuation or income of the venture instead of the losers. The participation is not only in impact on their credit rating and sales but also concrete choices in government of it.

Not to mention in principle there is an actual activity being backed by the investment to produce non-zero sum gains. While there may be risks involved in say, running a turnip farm or sending a ship across the ocean, you are still supporting a useful activity for its own end. Crucially as well there is motivation to do the task even without the market, even though it may enable it.

If you can manipulate the outcome of the turnip farm (as opposed to the market) to make it succeed that is doing useful work and not just cheating a bet. A guideline of the distinction would be - would charging somebody for making the outcome successful in a not otherwise criminal way be a Kafkaesque injustice?

You can in fact use the market to gamble via options intended for credit or insurance but stopping those by stopping the market entirely would be throwing out the baby with the bathwater.

Re: Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets

#65
post #25

I'm surprised prediction markets don't get more support here on HN. There's a lot of benefit in having a probability estimate for various kinds of events. One example of many: https://polymarket.com/event/may-2026-temperature-increase-c These markets are a straightforward way to cut through all the noise of the current media conglomerates. Rather than getting bombarded by inflated headlines a glance at polymarket or…

1. I have only moderate confidence that the odds on prediction markets represent true odds. 2. I think the existence of prediction markets can change the outcome of events. See the Super Bowl Streaker as an example. 3. I don’t have a strong use for prediction market odds. In the few areas of my life that require forecasting I have sources of information i understand and trust more, sometimes with private data not ava…

> 3. I don’t have a strong use for prediction market odds. In the few areas of my life that require forecasting I have sources of information i understand and trust more, sometimes with private data not available to the general public.

100%. I have no earthly idea what the value of these markets is for things I'm not an expert in (I assume they're roughly equivalent to asking the bots and teenagers on Reddit and pretending that's crowd-sourcing, given what they show in things I understand well), and I have no use for them in things I am an expert in.

But hey, at least government employees/soldiers can cash in on secret operations before they happen? That's fun, or whatever.

Re: Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets

#66
post #38
post #25

I'm surprised prediction markets don't get more support here on HN. There's a lot of benefit in having a probability estimate for various kinds of events. One example of many: https://polymarket.com/event/may-2026-temperature-increase-c These markets are a straightforward way to cut through all the noise of the current media conglomerates. Rather than getting bombarded by inflated headlines a glance at polymarket or…

Funny, someone cheated a temperature-related bet a few weeks ago: https://www.npr.org/2026/04/23/nx-s1-5797876/polymarket-pari...

Prediction markets seemed neat when I first heard about them, but they've proved to have "theory meets the real world" externalities I wouldn't have ever considered. Insiders betting on (and possibly influencing) military/diplomatic stuff, reporters getting threatened, weather stations getting hit with hairdryers. It's wild.

Re: Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets

#67
post #6
post #2

Neither conservative nor Mormon, but online gambling is an addictive scourge that ruins lives, and I'd love to see it banned broadly. And go ahead and ban paid loot boxes as well. I don't love casinos or lotteries, but at least there's the friction of having to travel to a physical location to feed your addiction. And then there's the whole "insider trading" and "gambling on war" angles that come into play with predi…

As much as I hate what gambling does on the society, I'm still not sure if banning this activity counts as freedom. I believe that grown consenting adults do have a free will and should have the ability to destroy their lives if they so choose. OTOH allowing those kind of activities WILL end up with people opting in for the greater evil and thus some kind of limits should be enforced by governments. I have no idea wh…

Some things are banned for the good of society. Please remember that no man is an island, each is a piece of the continent. A man with an addiction he can't afford rarely destroys just his own life.

However, I will ask you to consider that under discussion are very specific bans. Call these something else if it makes you feel better. I think these are normally called "regulation." But, what's being discussed is still completely compatible with "freedom", especially with added context of the elected lawmakers enjoying the support of their constituency for their actions. This also leaves the door open for a future electorate to legislate something else.

Re: Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets

#68
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> some kind of limits should be enforced by governments I'm not sure why we think this works. Gambling is considered bad, and banned in many states, but many of those states run a lottery. This is just a straight up theft from the poor who are least well equipped to understand they are playing a rigged game, and not rigged in their favor.

> the poor who are least well equipped to understand Is there some actual evidence that poor people are under the impression that they have a meaningful chance of winning significant money the lottery? I see this line a lot and it’s extremely patronizing. I’m not even pro lottery but this “poor people are too dumb to understand” does not strike me as a sound argument.

Not too dumb, but badly educated about money (part of why they stay poor) and probabilities.

Re: Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets

#69
post #55

As I get older I'm starting to realize, the Christians were right about everything.

I consider it more of a "stopped clock" situation; I've found myself getting more and more disillusioned with Christians as I get older, but this is one thing I can agree on.

As a gay dude I'd agree, lol

Christianity has some good stuff (love thy neighbor, etc), but I'd rather we not lean too heavily on it for public policy, for obvious reasons

Re: Utah lawmakers form united front in push to ban prediction markets

#70
post #2

Neither conservative nor Mormon, but online gambling is an addictive scourge that ruins lives, and I'd love to see it banned broadly. And go ahead and ban paid loot boxes as well. I don't love casinos or lotteries, but at least there's the friction of having to travel to a physical location to feed your addiction. And then there's the whole "insider trading" and "gambling on war" angles that come into play with predi…

The "return to player" numbers for lottery tickets are on the order of 60% https://wizardofodds.com/are-lottery-players-smart/. Many states have online lottery apps, they do TV and radio ads, etc. Why should that be allowed? Of course some of the only forms of gambling where skill actually matters (poker and sports) come under constant attack...

If you bet randomly on the winner of NFL games on DraftKings you'd expect to lose 4-5% of your money per bet over time. I'm not sure the people here with a cultivated disinterest in professional sports know this but it is much more entertaining to watch a game when you have money on the line. We know that all but 1-2 percent of people are able to control themselves and not become problem gamblers. The UK fines casinos for not doing enough to stop problem gambling, the US can do the same. You can do income checks, have a national self exclusion system, and ban advertising.

Lastly, prediction markets are the only way for Americans to bet on sports and not be banned for winning too much (short of using sketchy agents for Betfair and Asian books that can randomly steal all your money)

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