Where Are the Vibecoded Photoshops?

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See http//localhost:3000

I think it was in these forums where I first read that you can gauge AI progress by the velocity at which people move the goalposts.

The only people with higher expectations of the AI boom than the optimists are the pessimists. The forecasting I've seen [0] is that AI will be in a position to vibe-code things like Photoshop with some human assistance by around 2027-2030 if the current trends continue. Maybe fully autonomously in the mid 2030s depending on how many human-hours a basic clone of Photoshop takes to build.

That might be a letdown for some.

[0] https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com... does nice charts

Right.

So how long do we have to wait? The reality is the actual output doesn’t match the hype at all.

Software engineers should be getting laid off all over the place, there should be a decrease in hiring period. This is not what’s happening.