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Tesla Solar Roof is on life support as it pivot to panels

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Re: Tesla Solar Roof is on life support as it pivot to panels

#241

Post by gnopgnip »

somenameforme wrote: post #239
freetime2 wrote: post #115

> The economics never worked either. An average Tesla Solar Roof costs approximately $106,000 before incentives, compared to roughly $60,000 for a traditional roof replacement plus conventional solar panels — a $46,000 premium. The payback period stretches to 15-25 years, compared to 7-12 years for traditional panels. Yikes that’s a lot of money. For most people buying solar, I think payback period is probably the bi…

In both cases I'm somewhat curious why seemingly no middle-man 'free solar roof' companies have sprung up where they install it with some sort of arrangement where the panels are free, but they get 90% of the generated revenue until it's paid itself off and then some. So you get a small electricity discount for many years and then eventually a much larger one, and free panels on top. If they can work out the economic…

Something like this exists with PPA solar leases, and with home batteries.

But it’s usually a bad deal for the homeowner compared to a more conventional lease or purchase with a fixed rate. The incentives don’t match up, there is also the issue of the lease buyout if the home is sold.

Re: Tesla Solar Roof is on life support as it pivot to panels

#242

Post by throwaway2037 »

bruce511 wrote: post #179
freetime2 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No - these numbers likely do not factor in opportunity cost. And yes, you can probably earn a better return elsewhere. But the reasons that I installed rooftop solar were: * Diversification. These days stocks, bonds, real estate, crypto, and even precious metals are increasingly correlated [1]. Solar panels offer pretty consistent returns regardless of what is happening in the stock market. * Backup power. I live in…

I'm in the same camp as you. I'll add that my panels are returning 16% on capital spent, and it's going up as electricity prices go up. So, yes, I could probably get a higher return if I invested that capital elsewhere, but, apart from the diversification, I get benefits beyond the raw financial return. Firstly, earlier this year, we had a cable coming into the house fail. By the time the electrician and city had don…

    > my panels are returning 16% on capital spent
Can you share your calculations?

Re: Tesla Solar Roof is on life support as it pivot to panels

#243

Post by gwd »

brikym wrote: post #178
akerl_ wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not if the two things you want are "solar power for your home" and "for your roof to not be covered in obvious solar panels". I have a Tesla solar roof. I bought it knowing there were cheaper options for equivalent solar power because I liked the aesthetics.

Does it actually make sense financially vs investing in something else?

I mean, if your goal is to absolutely maximize the number in your bank account, no. But then there are other things you could be doing too -- you can do the math and cover all your nutritional needs for under $1 a day, by eating mostly potatoes. But most people prefer to spend 20x that much and have food that tastes decent. And a handful of people will spend 30-40x that to have really nice food.

If you think about money as a tool to maximize your "joy", then whether the Solar Roof is worth it completely depends on your preferences and your financial situation. Most people are fine with black panels; but if you have the money and like the look of the tiles, why not?

Re: Tesla Solar Roof is on life support as it pivot to panels

#244

Post by pzmarzly »

RataNova wrote: post #211
1123581321 wrote: post #167

My thoughts are generally in line with the conclusion. The growth in the rooftop solar market has come from right-sized installations that can be put up in a day or two by a small crew. Minimizing crew and paperwork costs is important when quoting solar competitively; plus it reduces the complexity of operations at headquarters. Cheaper installations generally win, especially when the homeowner receives a credit on t…

And this is probably the core issue. Solar Roof was trying to be a roofing product, an energy product, and a design product all at once

That doesn't mean it's a bad idea, Building-Integrated Photovoltaics are its own market of products. But you have many much cheaper options there, at least in Europe. For example https://solroof.eu/en/discover-solroof/what-is-solroof/ or https://metsolar.eu/products/bipv-roof/

Re: Tesla Solar Roof is on life support as it pivot to panels

#245

Post by davedx »

sergiotapia wrote: post #190
freetime2 wrote: post #115

> The economics never worked either. An average Tesla Solar Roof costs approximately $106,000 before incentives, compared to roughly $60,000 for a traditional roof replacement plus conventional solar panels — a $46,000 premium. The payback period stretches to 15-25 years, compared to 7-12 years for traditional panels. Yikes that’s a lot of money. For most people buying solar, I think payback period is probably the bi…

I would love some kind of solar, but when I know how cheap it is to install it in places like Africa AND use cutting edge chinese solar/battery tech, my enthusiasm to pay a USA premium makes me just close the tabs. It's too expensive in america for some reason.

IME a lot of the difference between solar for the US vs Europe for example, is that the energy usage in the US is way higher (often due to HVAC usage), so you just need much larger sized systems than in Europe if you want to cover your usage fully. Our house here in NL is 3.5 kWp, people I know in the US have more like 20-30 kWp.

Re: Tesla Solar Roof is on life support as it pivot to panels

#247

Post by mschuster91 »

formerly_proven wrote: post #235
decimalenough wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just solar panels, it's a roof replacement and solar panels. In high COL areas, the roof alone would likely cost you $10k+ these days.

10k for a SFH roof seems extraordinarily cheap to me for any COL area. I would expect around 50k-60k for a 1000 sq ft roof (not US).

> I would expect around 50k-60k for a 1000 sq ft roof (not US).

That's about 90 m². Here in Germany [1], if it's just replacing tiles, you're looking at 10k, add 20k for adding heat insulation - and you can get 15-20% back with government assistance from that sum. The only way you reach 50k in costs here is if you have to fix structural issues (e.g. rotting wood due to water ingress, but if you take proper care of your roof you won't need to do that - expected life time for roofs is about 80 years for the tiles and much more to the tune of centuries for the wood framing.

[1] https://www.obi.de/magazin/energiesparen/daemmung/dachdaemmu...

Re: Tesla Solar Roof is on life support as it pivot to panels

#248

Post by szszrk »

ern wrote: post #234

Tesla’s Solar Roof uses string inverters rather than micro-inverters or power optimizers, which means that partial shading on any section of the roof can shut down production for that entire string. This is a significant design limitation that competing solar installers address with panel-level optimization technology from companies like Enphase and SolarEdge. This seems to be overblown. I've seen plenty of string in…

Maybe should be rephrased, but still makes sense to me. They use inferior tech for a premium price.

But yeah, not really their unique problem. Just cheaper solution that is out there.

Re: Tesla Solar Roof is on life support as it pivot to panels

#249

Post by imtringued »

kccqzy wrote: post #163
freetime2 wrote: post #115

> The economics never worked either. An average Tesla Solar Roof costs approximately $106,000 before incentives, compared to roughly $60,000 for a traditional roof replacement plus conventional solar panels — a $46,000 premium. The payback period stretches to 15-25 years, compared to 7-12 years for traditional panels. Yikes that’s a lot of money. For most people buying solar, I think payback period is probably the bi…

In my opinion, the Tesla Solar Roof really appealed to people who wanted good looks. They probably already have their “forever” homes and are not thinking of moving at all. It is more about the emotional attachment to this part of your home than its functional aspects. You can buy a $100 dining table from IKEA or you can buy a $1,000 dining table from Pottery Barn or you can buy a custom $5,000 dining table made from…

If it was just about good looks, they could have built large panels with smaller tile style panels integrated on top of them and then used faux tiles to cover the gaps without having to actually connect them electrically.

Re: Tesla Solar Roof is on life support as it pivot to panels

#250

Post by mschuster91 »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #242
bruce511 wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in the same camp as you. I'll add that my panels are returning 16% on capital spent, and it's going up as electricity prices go up. So, yes, I could probably get a higher return if I invested that capital elsewhere, but, apart from the diversification, I get benefits beyond the raw financial return. Firstly, earlier this year, we had a cable coming into the house fail. By the time the electrician and city had don…

> my panels are returning 16% on capital spent Can you share your calculations?

Not OP but I'll run what I plan on doing. In Germany you can get a plug-in ready kit with 2.2 kWh battery and 920W panels for less than 600€ [1]. The panels are about 1.8 m² each (=3.6 m² total), so with on average 1.200 kWh/m² solar radiation and 25% efficiency I'm looking at up to 1080 kWh in energy I'll get out of the system per year.

Electricity here in Germany is expensive at an average 30 ct/kWh, so the panels save 324€ worth of electricity - an ROI of > 50%. Choose some better quality for the inverter and battery and you'll still be north of 30% ROI.

The key thing making this high ROI possible is that it's small. Counterintuitive, yes - but explained by the fact that for larger installations than that, setup costs go up: you need to install the panels on your roof instead of hanging them off your balcony which can be thousands of € in labor, you need to run new power wires...

[1] https://www.idealo.de/preisvergleich/OffersOfProduct/2092828...

[2] https://www.swm.de/unternehmen/magazin/energie/pv-ertrag-im-...

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