Darkly funny that Pangram 3.3.1 thinks "100% of this text is AI generated"
AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
341–350 of 426 posts
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#342Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's like witnessing a rocket using the most powerful engine on Earth then once it escaped orbit turn off the engine and said "It is flying without power!". Yes, sure, right now it is ... but that's NOT how it got here. There are trillions invested to recoup and at most billions in sales. It doesn't add up to tokens making a profit any time soon.
Certainly not trillions. The models costing tens of billions to train are a very new development.
OK hundreds of billions with more than ~200B disclosed for OpenAI, more than ~50B for Anthropic and I have no idea how much in terms of infrastructure from Azure, other neoclouds, NVIDIA, etc. It's honestly hard to keep track of "kind of IoUs-ish" from each other but my points is order of magnitude more than few billions than has be recouped so far with tokens and large contracts.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#343[flagged]
Wasn't GPT-5.5 much more expensive to train? Isn't training new models where most of the cost lies and that isn't going down nearly as quickly as inference is. I'm not arguing with your overall point that these tools are going to stick around, but your assumption that tokens will get significantly cheaper seems to rely on them not training anymore.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#344The hyperbolic nature of the articles in both AI camps is very exhausting to me.
I'd like to get in front of a whiteboard with someone who knows economics and the token providers businesses well enough to answer my "explain to me like I'm five" questions. But I'll start with these in here:
Is my observation correct that for the token providers this is a margins game, while for the consumers this is a quality of service/product game? If the quality:margin lines will cross at some point on the x-axis, is the race is to reach this point before running out of money? If yes: What historical examples are there where the delta between these two is huge?
I'm guessing LLM's are unique in a sense, since there's really no limit to how good a consumer of the product expects it to get? (Compared to for example email which is much easier to scale in regards to compute.)
Also extreme noob at life question: Why would you want to IPO before having a sustainable business model? What's the upside?
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#345Although I agree with the sentiment in the article, it smells very LLM~y. Especially the sections and punchlines. Such as: `That is not a rounding error. That is a line item that needs its own budget code.`
> That is not a rounding error. That is a line item that needs its own budget code. Claude produces this kind of prose SO much. It's pretty annoying. I don't notice it happening on Gemini for the same prompts.
It's called "constrastive negation", and both GPT and Claude tend towards it.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#346I think I'm going to puke if I see one more "It's not X. It's Y." phrase or the word "load-bearing" used metaphorically.
witness the first signs of AI fatigue
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#347Earlier quoted context omitted.
AGI is a myth that these AI companies perpetuate as a convenient marketing tactic. > At that point we can start truly replacing white collar workers in earnest and begin deep integration. This is why AI is so deeply unpopular. Even in the "good" scenario proselytized by true believers, you still paint a bleak near-future where everyone loses their jobs.
Not a myth inherently but definitely unlikely on that timeline. ASI gets more mythical, probabilistically.
Yeah, I don't mean to say AGI itself is a myth; more like AGI as OpenAI, Anthropic and Google would have us believe is perpetually right around the corner is a myth.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#348Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not a myth inherently but definitely unlikely on that timeline. ASI gets more mythical, probabilistically.
Yeah, I don't mean to say AGI itself is a myth; more like AGI as OpenAI, Anthropic and Google would have us believe is perpetually right around the corner is a myth.
Agreed
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#349Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Neither Mr. Edison nor anyone else can override the well-known laws of Nature, and when he is made to say that the same wire which brings you light will also bring you power and heat, there is no difficulty in seeing that more is promised than can possibly be performed. To talk about cooking food by heat derived from electricity is absurd."
Wait, this person knew that the wire could bring you light, but not that it could bring you heat? Hadn't they noticed that light bulbs heat up?
It could be a reasonable argument from the point of view of scale: you need a lot more energy for cooking than for lighting (even with incandescent lightbulbs, though they were a fair bit dimmer and colder in the earlier days of them).
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#350Earlier quoted context omitted.
Within 5-10 years you're going to see a box like one of those AMD Halo nodes running homes. They'll be controlling lights and temperature, they'll be adding calendar reminders that show up on your phone and your fridge. Your phone and devices might sync pictures and videos there instead of the large cloud providers. They'll also be a media server, able to stream and multiplex whatever content you want through the hom…
It's amazing to me. You say this like it isn't an absolute horror. We've really ramped up the malignant bloat of the software industry if it goes this way. We'll have this massive machine to do "home automation", something that by all rights should be possible with less computing than is deployed in smartwatches today. Yuck...
Moving the LLM from SaaS to the home, reducing the power distribution problem, and giving people control back over their data - getting it away from Big Tech. The home controls should also be more responsive that most current modern home automation that mostly uses wireless and Bluetooth to a cloud service. These are all good things.
That's just one piece of the puzzle. If you're running the LLM there's no reason your family's mobile devices couldn't use said home LLM box to save battery life on their devices while maintaining control of their data, searches, photos, files, etc.