71–80 of 186 posts
Really sad to see some of the best visualizations I've ever seen in my life being taken down. I've easily spent hours exploring playing with their gun deaths visualization, p-hacking piece, gut microbiome explorable explainer and many others. Guess we better back up their GitHub repos before that gets taken down as well https://github.com/fivethirtyeight
when i lived in SF i found al pastor at Tacqueria Cancun messianic
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If you sell out don't expect to control future events.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Disney's 2025 profit was $12B: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/DIS/disney/net-inc...
So what amount of profits insulates you from lack of fiduciary responsibility? "It's okay set millions of dollars on fire because we have billions in this pile over here!"
As far as I can tell the fiduciary duty to make money for the shareholders is something that Jack Welsh of GE said enough times that people remembered it. However, I’m always interested in additional details concerning the history of this meme, and happy to learn more.
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People consistently have a hard time understanding that 30% probabilities happen all the time.
Surely not all the time.
So in an election, that happens all the time. It just doesn't always happen in the race for president.
> BTW, I approached ABC about buying back the former FiveThirtyEight IP*, and they said they wouldn't sell at any price because I'd criticized their management of the brand. --Nate Silver (538 founder) ABC seem pretty petty here.
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So what amount of profits insulates you from lack of fiduciary responsibility? "It's okay set millions of dollars on fire because we have billions in this pile over here!"
No, what insulates them from fiduciary responsibility is the fact that there is no fiduciary responsibility to shareholders. I’ll say that again: members and/or managers of an LLC, and officers and directors of a corporation owe no fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders to make them money. The fiduciary duties owed under US law are as follows: 1) the duty to be informed; 2) the duty not to usurp corporate oppor…
Was 538 ABC's property during the first Trump election? IIRC they took a pretty big credibility hit after getting that election so wrong and never really recovered.
I remember that whole election starting off very poorly for Nate Silver. After reading this book, The Party Decides https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/P/bo592160... , he was a big advocate of the idea that the "endorsement race" of state officials and unelected party leaders. There was a whole "Party Decides: Endorsement Tracker" graphic and everything, but Trump securing the Republican nomination and…
Was 538 ABC's property during the first Trump election? IIRC they took a pretty big credibility hit after getting that election so wrong and never really recovered.
That this is the narrative that survived the election is one of the greatest indictments for our society's ability to engage in critical thinking.
The day before the election, the Huffington Post published a hit piece criticising Nate for overrating Trump's odds and inspiring panic. Huffpost predicted a 98.2% chance of Clinton winning, NYT predicted 85%, and Nate's model dared to give her only a 65% chance of winning.
Then the election happens, Trump wins, and the credible figure who gave him the highest odds is now lambasted from the other direction. He was so wrong to give Trump a chance that the mainstream media were publishing articles about it, and he was so wrong to not give Trump a 100% chance that it ruined his reputation. The moral: you literally can't win, because people are too fucking stupid to comprehend probability, period.
538 made thousands of forecasts of events they predicted to happen 30% of the time, and those events happened 29% of the time in actuality. Does that mean they got it wrong every single one of those times a 30% event actually happened? For a forecaster to be 'correct', is it necessary for events forecasted at 30% to never happen?