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ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

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Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#31

Post by Yossarrian22 »

softwaredoug wrote: post #21
fabian2k wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 70:30 prediction against Trump was far better than most. I did see models back then that considered the state polls mostly or entirely uncorrelated, and those produced obviously garbage with 90% or even 99% in favor of Clinton. But in the end people pick on Nate because he really enjoys being an asshole on the internet. It's far more about when he acts as a pundit, not as an expert on statistics.

People consistently have a hard time understanding that 30% probabilities happen all the time.

Some say 30% of the time.

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#32

Post by eugenekolo »

applfanboysbgon wrote: post #22

> BTW, I approached ABC about buying back the former FiveThirtyEight IP*, and they said they wouldn't sell at any price because I'd criticized their management of the brand. --Nate Silver (538 founder) ABC seem pretty petty here.

WOuldn't proof of that be some grounds for breach of fiduciary duty?

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#33

Post by triceratops »

softwaredoug wrote: post #21
fabian2k wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 70:30 prediction against Trump was far better than most. I did see models back then that considered the state polls mostly or entirely uncorrelated, and those produced obviously garbage with 90% or even 99% in favor of Clinton. But in the end people pick on Nate because he really enjoys being an asshole on the internet. It's far more about when he acts as a pundit, not as an expert on statistics.

People consistently have a hard time understanding that 30% probabilities happen all the time.

Surely not all the time.

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#34

Post by nradov »

eugenekolo wrote: post #32
applfanboysbgon wrote: post #22

> BTW, I approached ABC about buying back the former FiveThirtyEight IP*, and they said they wouldn't sell at any price because I'd criticized their management of the brand. --Nate Silver (538 founder) ABC seem pretty petty here.

WOuldn't proof of that be some grounds for breach of fiduciary duty?

Nope. There is really no case law to support such a legal theory.

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#35

Post by jvanderbot »

eugenekolo wrote: post #32
applfanboysbgon wrote: post #22

> BTW, I approached ABC about buying back the former FiveThirtyEight IP*, and they said they wouldn't sell at any price because I'd criticized their management of the brand. --Nate Silver (538 founder) ABC seem pretty petty here.

WOuldn't proof of that be some grounds for breach of fiduciary duty?

Dunno - is protecting yourself from high-profile criticism by doing whatever you want with assets you 100% own and are under no contractual obligation to share ... also in fiduciary duty?

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#36

Post by rconti »

Tangential: I miss Nate and Maria Konnikova's Risky Business podcast. It only lasted a year (or two?).

I expected it would be resurrected outside the Pushkin network, but hasn't happened yet.

What I _don't_ miss is listening to podcasts on Pushkin. I had nothing against Malcolm Gladwell, but something about having his voice on every one of the network's very numerous ads became incredibly grating.

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#38

Post by krapp »

softwaredoug wrote: post #21
fabian2k wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 70:30 prediction against Trump was far better than most. I did see models back then that considered the state polls mostly or entirely uncorrelated, and those produced obviously garbage with 90% or even 99% in favor of Clinton. But in the end people pick on Nate because he really enjoys being an asshole on the internet. It's far more about when he acts as a pundit, not as an expert on statistics.

People consistently have a hard time understanding that 30% probabilities happen all the time.

Where Presidential politics is concerned, I think it's less a case of misunderstanding probabilities and more the success of party propaganda. Every victory is a landslide with a resounding mandate from the populace, every defeat a crushing humiliation and repudiation of your opponent's Unamerican ideals.

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#39

Post by add-sub-mul-div »

fabian2k wrote: post #18
sparrish wrote: post #8

[flagged]

The 70:30 prediction against Trump was far better than most. I did see models back then that considered the state polls mostly or entirely uncorrelated, and those produced obviously garbage with 90% or even 99% in favor of Clinton. But in the end people pick on Nate because he really enjoys being an asshole on the internet. It's far more about when he acts as a pundit, not as an expert on statistics.

Those predictions all became worthless anyway when Comey reopened the "emails" issue right before the election and threw fresh meat to all the stupid people who ate that up.

Re: ABC News has taken all FiveThirtyEight articles offline

#40

Post by minimaxir »

eugenekolo wrote: post #32
applfanboysbgon wrote: post #22

> BTW, I approached ABC about buying back the former FiveThirtyEight IP*, and they said they wouldn't sell at any price because I'd criticized their management of the brand. --Nate Silver (538 founder) ABC seem pretty petty here.

WOuldn't proof of that be some grounds for breach of fiduciary duty?

It is not illegal to be petty during business negotiations.
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