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The sigmoids won't save you

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Re: The sigmoids won't save you

#11

Post by NitpickLawyer »

gm678 wrote: post #6

I don't know what the Y-axis is supposed to be on that Wharton AI capabilities graph, but I am not really convinced that Opus 4.6 has more than double the intelligence/capability/whatever of GPT 5.1 Max.

IIRC that graph tracks capabilities as time_to_solve a task for humans (i.e. the model can now handle tasks that usually take a human ~8h). Which, depending on what tasks you look at, could be a reasonable finding. I could see Opus 4.6 handling tasks that take ~8h for humans, and that 5.1 couldn't previously handle (with 5.1 being "limited" at 4h tasks let's say). It is a bit arbitrary, but I think this is what they're tracking.

Re: The sigmoids won't save you

#13

Post by inglor_cz »

nathan_compton wrote: post #3

A lot of words to say "The initial part of a sigmoidal curve is not very informative about the parameters of the sigmoid function in question."

That is true, but I generally enjoy reading a lot of words from Scott, who has a talent for writing.

The entire plot of the Lord of the Rings could probably be compressed into less than 10 kB of text too.

Edit: this seems to be a controversial comment, but IMHO a blog of Scott Alexander's type is an art form, not just a communication channel.

Re: The sigmoids won't save you

#14

Post by afthonos »

BoredPositron wrote: post #8
gm678 wrote: post #6

I don't know what the Y-axis is supposed to be on that Wharton AI capabilities graph, but I am not really convinced that Opus 4.6 has more than double the intelligence/capability/whatever of GPT 5.1 Max.

https://metr.org/time-horizons/ on linear scale. Clickbait garbage article as most of his in the last year.

…yeah, that’s where you see the exponential?

Re: The sigmoids won't save you

#16

Post by krupan »

inglor_cz wrote: post #10

Hmmm, this is quite an interesting take by Scott. Lindy's Law is not actually a law and many exact minds will be provoked by the very name; it also fails spectacularly in certain contexts (e.g. lifetime of a single organism, though not necessarily existence of entire species). But at the same time, I am willing to take its invocation in the context of AI somewhat seriously. There is an international arms race with Ch…

"There is an international arms race with China"

I keep seeing this. Where did it come from? Has China said that they intend to attack other countries using AI? Have other countries declared that they intend to attack China with AI?

Also, why does anyone believe that AI could actually be that dangerous, given it's inherent unpredictable and unreliable performance? I would be terrified to rely on AI in a life or death situation.

Re: The sigmoids won't save you

#18

Post by inglor_cz »

krupan wrote: post #16
inglor_cz wrote: post #10

Hmmm, this is quite an interesting take by Scott. Lindy's Law is not actually a law and many exact minds will be provoked by the very name; it also fails spectacularly in certain contexts (e.g. lifetime of a single organism, though not necessarily existence of entire species). But at the same time, I am willing to take its invocation in the context of AI somewhat seriously. There is an international arms race with Ch…

"There is an international arms race with China" I keep seeing this. Where did it come from? Has China said that they intend to attack other countries using AI? Have other countries declared that they intend to attack China with AI? Also, why does anyone believe that AI could actually be that dangerous, given it's inherent unpredictable and unreliable performance? I would be terrified to rely on AI in a life or death…

It was a metaphor. I meant, and later clarified, an intellectual arms race.

BTW your handle is an actual Czech word, minus a diacritic sign ("křupan"), and a bit amusing one. It basically means hillbilly. Not that it matters, just FYI.

Anyway: AI will be used in military context, and it probably already is. Both for target acquisition and maybe even driving the weapon itself. As of now, the Ukrainians are almost certainly operating some AI-enabled killer drones.

Re: The sigmoids won't save you

#19

Post by dmbche »

krupan wrote: post #16
inglor_cz wrote: post #10

Hmmm, this is quite an interesting take by Scott. Lindy's Law is not actually a law and many exact minds will be provoked by the very name; it also fails spectacularly in certain contexts (e.g. lifetime of a single organism, though not necessarily existence of entire species). But at the same time, I am willing to take its invocation in the context of AI somewhat seriously. There is an international arms race with Ch…

"There is an international arms race with China" I keep seeing this. Where did it come from? Has China said that they intend to attack other countries using AI? Have other countries declared that they intend to attack China with AI? Also, why does anyone believe that AI could actually be that dangerous, given it's inherent unpredictable and unreliable performance? I would be terrified to rely on AI in a life or death…

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2025/11/25/wh...
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