USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought • Hacker News Board

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#31

Post by fullstop » Thu, May 14, 2026, 1:58 PM UTC

9rx wrote: post #15

evanjrowley wrote: post #4

Same region all the new data centers are being built. Unfortunately, humans can't eat data like they can wheat.

You can eat soybeans, though, which are seeing record production thanks to it supplanting what is affectionately known in agriculture circles as poverty grass.

Perhaps someone in the industry can chime in, but I had read that the soybeans that the US primarily grows and previously sold to China were used for pig feed. In my mind I pictured it like "cow corn" -- humans technically can eat it, but it's chewy and not very good.

Are there different grades of soybean?

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#32

Post by HelloMcFly » Thu, May 14, 2026, 1:58 PM UTC

dakolli wrote: post #12

giantg2 wrote: post #2

It will only get worse for the next generation as the aquafers are continuing to be depleted.

we live in a closed greenhouse system, the water just doesn't just disappear and most of the Earth is covered in it. Plenty of countries completely rely on desalination already, I think we'll be fine. I'm much more concerned about everyone becoming a moron from using AI. edit: cloud seeding too.

The energy required to transport water from the coast to our major agricultural areas would be astronomical, and the resulting brine waste would create its own environmental crisis. If we get to a point where we're forced to bypass natural water cycles entirely, our native ecologies will have already collapsed. At that point, we'll be trying to engineer our way out of a total ecological apocalypse as masses starve in bread lines.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#33

Post by mothballed » Thu, May 14, 2026, 1:58 PM UTC

atomicnumber3 wrote: post #16

dakolli wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we live in a closed greenhouse system, the water just doesn't just disappear and most of the Earth is covered in it. Plenty of countries completely rely on desalination already, I think we'll be fine. I'm much more concerned about everyone becoming a moron from using AI. edit: cloud seeding too.

The problem is that aquifers are really cool natural filters, and only refill as fast as groundwater moves through the soil. So they're a finite resource. Instead of depleting them, people who want to farm in deserts should probably start desalinating or whatever themselves instead of assuming subsequent generations will do it.

The government made it literally the only way to claim much of the land out west[]. They require that you come up with an agricultural land including plan for watering crops on that acreage in order to claim the land. And you're required to execute the plan to get the deed.

In fact, this is the only remaining way I know of to more or less 'homestead' federal land in a way that results in a permanent deed. The rest of the homesteading type stuff was revoked back in like the 70s or 80s.

[] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desert_Land_Act

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#34

Post by dopa42365 » Thu, May 14, 2026, 1:59 PM UTC

dakolli wrote: post #12

giantg2 wrote: post #2

It will only get worse for the next generation as the aquafers are continuing to be depleted.

we live in a closed greenhouse system, the water just doesn't just disappear and most of the Earth is covered in it. Plenty of countries completely rely on desalination already, I think we'll be fine. I'm much more concerned about everyone becoming a moron from using AI. edit: cloud seeding too.

and desalination is so efficient/cheap at scale already that it barely affects water prices in those countries (less than 10% already, further shrinking every year as methods improve)

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#35

Post by bluGill » Thu, May 14, 2026, 1:59 PM UTC

embedding-shape wrote: post #8

btbuildem wrote: post #5

> growers expanded plantings of soybeans, which require less fertilizer than grains like corn and wheat It's not the drought per se, it's input costs. Farmers are favouring crops that need less nitrogen and potassium. Commodities have responded accordingly.

> growers expanded plantings of soybeans A year ago China stopped buying soybeans from the US is seems ("China Bought $12.6 Billion in U.S. Soybeans Last Year. Now, It’s $0." - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/business/china-soybean-sa... ), was that resumed, or who are all these new soybeans going to? Is it all for national use instead of export?

When China buys from someone else (Brazil - nobody else has significant soy bean surplus) that means whoever was buying from that someone else now needs to go to the US.

The US also uses a lot of soy beans internally. Prices are down, but farmers are still selling soybeans and with careful management are making money.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#36

Post by embedding-shape » Thu, May 14, 2026, 1:59 PM UTC

cogman10 wrote: post #14

embedding-shape wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> growers expanded plantings of soybeans A year ago China stopped buying soybeans from the US is seems ("China Bought $12.6 Billion in U.S. Soybeans Last Year. Now, It’s $0." - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/business/china-soybean-sa... ), was that resumed, or who are all these new soybeans going to? Is it all for national use instead of export?

I expect other nations are still consuming US soybeans. China stopped because it was particularly negatively targeted by US tariff policy. But make no mistake, it has caused problems for farmers. The report from my small hometown farmers is that everything, except for beef, is down right now while the prices of inputs like fertilizer are high. Some of the farmers in my hometown have already sold their land to megacor…

> I expect other nations are still consuming US soybeans

But who? Compared to 2024, 2025 had almost half soybean exports it seems (https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/commodities/soybeans), I'm guessing most of the difference was China basically stopped buying soybeans.

But it's a huge difference, yet production seems to be ramping up? I don't understand why they'd do that when the exports are going down?

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#37

Post by jeffbee » Thu, May 14, 2026, 1:59 PM UTC

evanjrowley wrote: post #4

Same region all the new data centers are being built. Unfortunately, humans can't eat data like they can wheat.

Wheat, being basically worthless, is predominantly not irrigated. A data center that draws water from a river or aquifer is not a rival to wheat, which relies on rain. When farmers have invested in irrigation they largely grow something else that's worth actual money.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#38

Post by hnthrow0287345 » Thu, May 14, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC

pixl97 wrote: post #24

dakolli wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we live in a closed greenhouse system, the water just doesn't just disappear and most of the Earth is covered in it. Plenty of countries completely rely on desalination already, I think we'll be fine. I'm much more concerned about everyone becoming a moron from using AI. edit: cloud seeding too.

This is by far the dumbest post in this thread by a mile. It's funny saying AI will make people dumber when you've obviously don't understand this issue in the first place. Food security is human security. When you take a huge percentage of a countries grow able land out because it stops raining then food proces go up, often dramatically. Desalination uses far more power than AI ever would.

And if we wait until large scale desalination becomes profitable, it will be too late to respond quickly without massive upheaval and deaths.

This is where capitalism drives humanity off a cliff.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#39

Post by fullstop » Thu, May 14, 2026, 2:01 PM UTC

koverstreet wrote: post #20

fullstop wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has the USA's potash supply been reduced due to strained relations with Canada? They are our top supplier, by far.

Are you forgetting the nitrogen? :)

The US produces most of their own nitrogen, but the same is not true of potash.

Re: USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

#40

Post by colechristensen » Thu, May 14, 2026, 2:01 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #30

koverstreet wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you forgetting the nitrogen? :)

The US provides a lot of its own supply there.

Nitrogen is pulled out of the air which is free but the process requires hydrogen which is acquired from disassembled methane, the price of which is a significant contributor.