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How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

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Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#21

Post by xenadu02 »

cogman10 wrote: post #12
SoftTalker wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are a lot of companies that have billions in cash and are also prodigious buyers of RAM. Companies like Apple, Google, Meta, Nvidia... Do they want to get into a commodity business like RAM production? Maybe not, but if prices stay high long enough that demand for their products falls off, they might think about it. I know that I personally and my employer are cutting way back on new technology purchases and sq…

And none of these companies are operating their own fabs, that's the problem. Fabs are a cutthroat business that's very hard to get into. It costs billions of continual investment to stay a float. That's why there's really only about 3 different companies with cutting edge fabs. TSMC, Micron, and Samsung. Even intel, who built a huge portion of their business on cutting edge fab tech, has struggled to keep funding it…

I've made this same argument so let me make a counter-argument:

There are some ways to get this off the ground much quicker. One or more companies could buy an existing non-leading-edge fab like GlobalFoundaries. That buys a lot of expertise so you're not starting from zero.

DRAM also benefits from being very regular and relatively simple. It used to be what you bring up on a new process node to help prove things out.

It also isn't impossible to reduce reliance on ASML if you're willing to throw money at it. That's definitely a super-long-game move but it could be done.

I'm not going to argue that someone is going to do any of this but if demand is sustained it is possible.

Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#23

Post by colechristensen »

kryptiskt wrote: post #3

This reads like Apple fanfiction to me. > But then Apple can negotiate on another basis and say, well, if you don’t do us a favor here and give us a better rate, then maybe we won’t work with you when all this settles down. You know things are going to settle down. These things are always cyclical. There’s never been a semiconductor boom that’s not followed by a semiconductor bust. Never. And they know it. I have to…

Yes, the author knows very little about the industry or how Apple operates. Fanfiction indeed.

They book manufacturing capacity often years in advance. Samsung is their majority RAM supplier and they reportedly agreed to doubling their price a few months ago.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-100-ram-price-hike-12...

The original article is baseless speculation proven wrong by news announced in February.

Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#25

Post by kingstnap »

SoftTalker wrote: post #4
christkv wrote: post #2

Our problem is lack of competition

High prices for RAM should attract competition.

The only thing that can actually introduce competition in RAM is some form of government backing around national security concerns. China has been doing this for some time though so there will probably be major Chinese supply coming in the medium term.

Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#26

Post by cmcclellan »

coredog64 wrote: post #6
kryptiskt wrote: post #3

This reads like Apple fanfiction to me. > But then Apple can negotiate on another basis and say, well, if you don’t do us a favor here and give us a better rate, then maybe we won’t work with you when all this settles down. You know things are going to settle down. These things are always cyclical. There’s never been a semiconductor boom that’s not followed by a semiconductor bust. Never. And they know it. I have to…

Apple bought PA Semi as the starting point to getting off of Intel. Theoretically, memory seems like something Apple could figure out how to fab. And it's not like they don't have any capital reserves.

It's crazy to think Apple would actually fab memory (or TSMC for that matter). It's an entirely different process than logic.

Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#29

Post by mlindner »

ls65536 wrote: post #13
coredog64 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple bought PA Semi as the starting point to getting off of Intel. Theoretically, memory seems like something Apple could figure out how to fab. And it's not like they don't have any capital reserves.

They bought P.A. Semi, but it was for their design capability; they never had fabs anyway, and Apple still depends on TSMC and others for manufacturing chips. Apple building fabs to ensure a guaranteed supply of memory (or logic) chips would be an unprecedented level of vertical integration, even for them.

SpaceX/xAI is investing in creating their own fab. If they can, Apple certainly can.

Re: How can Apple deal with the memory shortage?

#30

Post by autoexec »

gensym wrote: post #28
autoexec wrote: post #27

[flagged]

Yeah, I guess it was just charity that led them to develop a really fast, efficient processor and to put good memory in their machines in the first place. Don't mistake not caring about "specs" with being indifferent to the experience.

"the experience" is what I meant by "vibes" and Apple users can care a lot about that. That means a whole lot more than just performance though which is why it's often so easy to find non-Apple products with way better specs for the same or lower prices. Some Apple users are fine with a slower experience as long as it's still an Apple experience.
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