both USA and EU are stagnant but you have to go to East or SE Asia to see what it means. Salaries and GDP is not always the best measure of growth.
European Stagnation Is Real
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Re: European Stagnation Is Real
#12Earlier quoted context omitted.
>> American technology companies bid workers away from haircutting and waiting tables to write code. > What? The context is clear is you read the whole paragraph instead of that one sentence: > Once a good is non-tradable, the wage is not set globally but in local markets. Newly productive American technology companies bid workers away from haircutting and waiting tables to write code. Since Americans still need hair…
If you think there are more than zero writers of code who were drawn away from cutting hair and waiting tables, I’ll eat a hat! * it must be an unused natural fiber hat. HN, anyone among you who once cut hair and waited tables? Pizza delivery does not count!
I bussed tables at one time. Like 25 years ago I think. Pretty much everyone has done some crappy job. But I was not bid away from bussing tables to write code, I was not really bid away from bussing tables for anything because nobody is bidding on table bussers to go work on anything at all.
Re: European Stagnation Is Real
#13> American technology companies bid workers away from haircutting and waiting tables to write code. What? > Europeans now work at all, and fewer Americans do. (In the authors’ view, the American decline is driven mainly by the expansion of government health benefits for the non-employed, especially Medicaid, which raised the value of not working. Um, other than the confusing “now work at all” which I interpret “are a…
>> American technology companies bid workers away from haircutting and waiting tables to write code. > What? The context is clear is you read the whole paragraph instead of that one sentence: > Once a good is non-tradable, the wage is not set globally but in local markets. Newly productive American technology companies bid workers away from haircutting and waiting tables to write code. Since Americans still need hair…
I mean it seems to me that Danish hair stylists and California hair stylists earn about the same amount of money before taxes, obviously the California has higher take home pay while the Danish has more governmental services so I feel it somewhat evens out.
Re: European Stagnation Is Real
#14Honestly, the world could use more stagnation.
We've had a lot of change in the past hundred years, and we've reached a point where we can clothe, feed, and house everyone in the world. Once that's done, moving forward more thoughtfully makes a lot of sense.
Who cares if we reach Mars in 2100 or 2200?
On the other hand, I care a lot about avoiding the nuclear / bio / chemical / environmental / and now AI apocalypse.
Re: European Stagnation Is Real
#15This is very interesting, good points. They don't really say what lead to this. EU and US were neck and neck in GDP growth department until GFC. And it's really not obvious what changed.
Re: European Stagnation Is Real
#16How do you disentangle the factors that go into productivity? The US is a net oil exporter, has the global reserve currency, and runs the most important stock exchange, among many other factors. How much heavy lifting is done by oil, by currency, by historical happenstance, versus by deliberate policy?
Re: European Stagnation Is Real
#17IMHO, the EU needs to become more proactive when it comes to tech markets. Trying to find new ways to tax US tech megacorps is not going to cut it.
1. Create competitive low tax regimes for EU based tech companies, both for investors and employees.
2. Forbid buyouts by US tech companies.
3. Become more protective of tech markets in general. For example why the fuck does AirBnB or Uber get to operate in Europe? What is there to gain? We have our own alternatives.
4. Give preferential treatment to EU based tech companies. For example for government related contracts, why the fuck are EU governments depending on Microsoft/Google/Amazon?
5. Prioritize tech over other lower growth industries. Yes selling petrol cars was good business 30 years ago.Re: European Stagnation Is Real
#18Honestly, the world could use more stagnation. We've had a lot of change in the past hundred years, and we've reached a point where we can clothe, feed, and house everyone in the world. Once that's done, moving forward more thoughtfully makes a lot of sense. Who cares if we reach Mars in 2100 or 2200? On the other hand, I care a lot about avoiding the nuclear / bio / chemical / environmental / and now AI apocalypse.
“we”? i think it’s damn obvious that it’s not “we”. the world doesn’t get to move together until all differences are resolved, is that the progress you think we’ve made in the last 100 years? I don’t understand how talk like this goes unchallenged so often. it’s fine aspirationally but come on! I look at a growing economy like a bicycle, the slower it goes the less stable it is. in other words, you can’t just stop unless you want mass death or you want to transition to a stabilizing mechanism the world is yet unaware of. I would also suggest we don’t foolishly bully human nature with policy- there is a certain and deep injustice to that.
Life’s motto is to grow. asking it to not grow or to greatly hamper it? its outrageous really, especially without a genius respectable path to get there. i don’t mind aspiration because dreaming is good but this one is a bit tired and uncontested. and just so i’m not just complaining, i’ll suggest that people stop trying to be dubious global citizens in problem space that outstrips their capabilities and work to be better stewards of one’s self, family, friends. support /relatively/ steady growth.
Re: European Stagnation Is Real
#19How do you disentangle the factors that go into productivity? The US is a net oil exporter, has the global reserve currency, and runs the most important stock exchange, among many other factors. How much heavy lifting is done by oil, by currency, by historical happenstance, versus by deliberate policy?
Productivity in economics is different from the colloquial definition. Productivity in this case means economic output (usually GDP) divided across working population.
As such, variables for productivity can be identified via back-of-the-napkin math, and in America's case is largely due to the rise of the tech and biotech industry along with Obama and Biden era protection for core industrial sectors like automotive, semiconductors, and renewables.
> How much heavy lifting is done by oil, by currency, by historical happenstance, versus by deliberate policy?
The productivity and GDP gap between the EU and US only began after the Great Recession and Eurozone Crisis.
The US decided to invest in subsidizes and simplified financing. Much of the EU decided to concentrate on austerity and reduce financing.
Re: European Stagnation Is Real
#20Earlier quoted context omitted.
>> American technology companies bid workers away from haircutting and waiting tables to write code. > What? The context is clear is you read the whole paragraph instead of that one sentence: > Once a good is non-tradable, the wage is not set globally but in local markets. Newly productive American technology companies bid workers away from haircutting and waiting tables to write code. Since Americans still need hair…
If you think there are more than zero writers of code who were drawn away from cutting hair and waiting tables, I’ll eat a hat! * it must be an unused natural fiber hat. HN, anyone among you who once cut hair and waited tables? Pizza delivery does not count!
You should eat your hat. The majority of people who work in restaurants do not stay there their entire life. Most move on to different careers, and for some of them it's coding. I'm one of them.
And even if the person doesn't move from waiting tables to coding, they are probably switching jobs because a position opened in a better field, and that position opened because somebody else switched to a better job - maybe coding?
It's a waterfall effect when salaries increase and employers have to compete for talent. It is the ideal state of things, and the entire purpose of having a free market economy.