Well unlike when he and Jerome Powell unleashed the money printer on us in 2020 and it took most of Biden's term to tame inflation, this should last as long as the Iran war. Unless there's a permanent shift in the strait or sticky consumer prices overcome the efficient market.
US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
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Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#212energy pricing is complex. some food for thought: if everyone believes the straight of hormuz is open, even if it is not, even if 20% less oil is being moved globally, what happens to oil prices? what happens to oil deliveries? is it possible for oil to be cheap in America while Bangladesh experiences shortages, instead of everyone paying more? is oil the same as energy? or is it more relevant to transportation? does…
The average family spends something like $5,000 on gas a year, maybe $10k. Gas could double and it’d be felt, but it’s still just a portion of total spend. We’ve had $4 gas before (20 years ago?!) and it was annoying but it didn’t end the world.
The perspective from over here in HN land is very skewed.
According to the US Census, median household income in 2024 was $80,000. Add federal and state income tax* of 30%, and you're left with $56,000. Rent in lower-cost areas is around $12,000 ($1k/mo.) and health insurance (assuming ACA, not fancy private plans) is another $7000. Utility prices vary wildly but average something like $450-500 (so $6000 per year). if you don't live in a particularly high-cost area and skip luxuries like home Internet service or media subscriptions.
That's just over $30,000 left over per year for all household expenses, including "luxuries" like food, clothes, and car and home maintenance. Heaven forbid you have loans (car, student, etc.) or any revolving credit debt.
The difference between $5k and $10k in fuel costs is therefore easily 15% vs. 35% of total "inessential" spending. With food and other goods consistently been driven up by inflation and tariffs, there's just no margin for an "average" family.
(Sources vary for the above; US Census comes data from its own website, rent from TIME, health costs from Forbes, and utilities from move.org. Feel free to find better reference numbers if you doubt the above.)
*- yes, not all states charge income tax; most of the ones that don't have other taxes (sales, gas, property) to make up the gap
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#213Earlier quoted context omitted.
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> all they have to do is US IC assessment is Iran is 5-10y away from delivery tech, and there's no imminent threat.
What do you mean delivery tech? Your delivery tech is a cargo ship. We're not talking about an ICBM that requires sophisticated re-entry materials. We are talking about a crude gun-device like Hiroshima, which is actually pretty easy if you google it.
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#214Earlier quoted context omitted.
idk, I read an analysis recently that retail investors in funds like the S&P500 are breaking how the stock market is "supposed" to work since people keep pumping the same money every month for retirement into the same 500 companies (or whatever an index is funding) without consequence to their actions, so they're never punished. Line goes up. The purchasing power of the masses outweighs the old brokerage class that d…
Probably very true, very simplified. The best strategy then would be to know when the retirement fund money stops doing this due to age pyramid collapse i would assume.
Aren’t we approximately there? The boomers are all starting to draw down for retirement.
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#215Earlier quoted context omitted.
You are on HN, the chance you are part of the american average is very low. This is a weird statement coming from a German bystander commenting on American politics with the username "Anti-USA".
Why? This is not US politics. Its global politics and it affects me as well. Independent of this, hn is not a platform the avg person is visiting. It requires a certain amount of high tech expertise to understand the conent of hn which statistically pushes the avg hn reader above the avg person. You do know how much impact the USA has around the globe right? right?!
hey just because I am not making above median/average income doesn't mean I don't have the tech expertise. And HN is not that tech intensive. A movie recommendation for you - Good will hunting.
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#216Earlier quoted context omitted.
When you are inject 3-5 trillion dollars into the economy over the span of months, it takes a while for reality to catch up.
idk, I read an analysis recently that retail investors in funds like the S&P500 are breaking how the stock market is "supposed" to work since people keep pumping the same money every month for retirement into the same 500 companies (or whatever an index is funding) without consequence to their actions, so they're never punished. Line goes up. The purchasing power of the masses outweighs the old brokerage class that d…
Agreed but there is definitely sector rotation still that all the banks / insiders can play for an extra few points
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#217I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…
Google searches for the epstein files went down significantly.
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#218Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’m a developer who has to deal with Zionism every day. We’re speed running IBM and the Holocaust. Commenting about it is the very least I can do. I have zero issue with Hezbollah.
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Hezbollah was formed after Israel's 1982 invasion of Lebanon, which killed 17k+ people, mostly civilians, and which Israeli historian Ilan Pappé said was mainly unprovoked (see below). Israel's explanation for why they decided to risk killing tens of thousands of non-Israelis - which is ultimately what their invasion did - was highly dishonest.
The reason for Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982:
Israel said it invaded Lebanon in June 1982 to stop PLO attacks from southern Lebanon and push Palestinian fighters far enough north to protect northern Israel.† The immediate trigger was the attempted assassination of Israel’s ambassador in London, Shlomo Argov. But that attack was carried out by the Abu Nidal group (based in Iraq), not the PLO, and Israel used it as the opening for a much broader war: destroying the PLO’s power in Lebanon, besieging Beirut, weakening Syrian influence, and trying to install a friendly Lebanese government. So, bluntly: there was a real security problem, but the 1982 invasion was also a war of choice and political engineering, not just self-defense.
† Right before the June 1982 invasion, the "they were shelling Galilee" line is weak: even the IDF says that after the July 1981 Habib ceasefire, "from July 1981 to June 1982, the Israeli-Lebanese border was quiet."
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#219A completely unnecessary war that benefits no one other than Israel and harms the rest of the world. The only positive to come from this is the annihilation of US military assets in the Middle East and an even deeper unity of the world against Zionism. It’s tough times but we will ultimately defeat this heinous ideology.
>benefits no one isn't correct. There are plenty of people on HN working in military contract industries, high tech arms manufacturing and such. They lobby Gov and benefit financially as do their employees.
Only certain types of contractors, and likely only in the short term.
Military contractors do well when the military has widespread support from the voters. Congresscritters will happily approve tax dollars going to the military industrial complex when their constituents view the US as the global protector of democracy. Wars like this one that aren't popular and make us look like thugs open the floor up to anti-military candidates. So yeah, the companies building missiles do well while the war is on, but the people like me who automate military fuel farms see budget cuts and projects cancelled.
Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war
#220Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. I wouldn't jump to conclusions yet. The war is not over. I wouldn't even be so sure as to say Iran is in a good place right now. Iran can absorb more pain than the US, but even that has a deadline. For the US, the only pain is inflation, which is more a matter of political capital than anything tangible. Trump is a lame duck preside…
And if Iran drops or threatens just a single nuke, I doubt there will be left any arguments.
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