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US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

bbc.com

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Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#141

Post by Traster »

simianparrot wrote: post #51
dirck-norman wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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I think it depends on what you classify as siding with Iran. I don't support any part of Iran's regime, but they didn't start this war. I don't support any part of Iran's regime, but this war seems to have empowered rather than destroyed the most objectionable parts of Iran's regime. I don't support any part of Iran's regime. But the actions of the US and Israel in this war have breached a lot of international rules that we would decry if it were Russia or China - and in doing so have created much more risk for countries in Eastern Europe and Taiwan.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#142

Post by triceratops »

wing-_-nuts wrote: post #78
giantg2 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are real wages. We would expect to see that during a sudden jump in inflation. Wages tend to lag inflation. The other interesting part in that article is that excluding fuel and food still shows 2.8% inflation - only 1% attributable to food and fuel. Makes it seem like the main article and this article have different spins. Edit: Wow people are jumping on this. The point is that food and fuel increases account…

I will say, this past inflation spike has completely broken the assumptions I had from 1970s economics that employers would raise their 'cost of living' raises to keep pace with inflation. My employer seems to think 2.5% is fine, as they've done it multiple years in recent past with only one extraordinary year netting 4%. I am now very skeptical of any so called 'wage price spiral'

Employers pay you the least amount of money it takes to keep you from working somewhere else. It's always been true and it probably always will be.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#143

Post by billfor »

khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

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Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#144

Post by yifanl »

baggy_trough wrote: post #77
AntiUSAbah wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your comment adding to this discussion? Do you want to say, that a specific small group of people are positive about a surge in energy costs? How does that reflect your acceptance of the overall climate change topic you are referencing? You do not believe in it? Or do you believe in it but you do not care? Like the latest AMOC paper doesn't bother you in particular? Am I a climate activist if i think its very…

I just think it's amusing that this is presented as a very bad thing in the context of Trump, but it's what climate activists have been seeking (only more so). When climate activists pursue this goal, it's presented as a laudable self sacrifice we must accept.

Climate activists, as a whole, have not been able to materially affect costs positively or negatively, in any sector other than maybe TED talks and documentaries.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#145

Post by goda90 »

tencentshill wrote: post #79
khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

The US oil industry is making massive amount of money directly from the people of the US on the inflated prices, since their domestic supply and refineries are unaffected. It also perfectly matches the actions a foreign country trying to harm the US would take. There's so many terrible options to choose from!

> since their [...] refineries are unaffected

Unfortunately not the case. There are an odd number of refinery issues happening across the US lately.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#146

Post by KptMarchewa »

tencentshill wrote: post #79
khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

The US oil industry is making massive amount of money directly from the people of the US on the inflated prices, since their domestic supply and refineries are unaffected. It also perfectly matches the actions a foreign country trying to harm the US would take. There's so many terrible options to choose from!

There are much easier ways of increasing the oil prices that don't have as much drawbacks as trump's war. Of course, for _some_ reason most people and countries prefer _lowering_ oil prices.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#147

Post by jonnybgood »

kdheiwns wrote: post #80
khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

Your top point is honestly the biggest. Until this year, US military bases were seen as an asset. They were thought to deter attacks, and in the case of someone being crazy enough to attack the country that hosted a US military base, they sold the promise of a quick and decisive response. But for countries in the Middle East, every base was nothing but a liability with nothing but a long list of detriments. The bases…

Which US bases were destroyed?

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#148

Post by rozal »

bix6 wrote: post #109

What I don’t understand is how the stock market can be so decoupled from reality. It’s a game at this point and completely disconnected from reality. Everything should be down 20%+ given oil is an input to everything and yet stocks are ATHing.

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Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#149

Post by triceratops »

zulux wrote: post #140
runako wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> long history of more wars from both parties Which wars were started by Democratic presidents in the last half-century?

Vietnam.

That was more than a half-century ago.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#150

Post by chromatin »

laweijfmvo wrote: post #82
kingleopold wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

offical inflation numbers are just LIE and wrongg for decades. Now you see it yourself. Via wrong numbers, they steal trillions

you’re not totally wrong but it’s not the outright lie you seem to imply. things like tweaks to the “standard basket” that they claim are in line with consumer preferences, which themselves changed because of inflation, for example, are one way we get a sort of hidden shrink flation.

I disagree and think GP poster is right on the money.

There are many ways in which inflation numbers are cooked; just one of them is the hedonic adjustment [1].

Others include an un-representative basket of goods.

The basket of goods is adjusted every 2 years, but not necessarily in a way that mirrors the way real households adapt their spending patterns to increased prices.

Owner equivalent rent (LOL) massively lags behind home prices.

Honestly, when 10s or hundreds of millions of people's perception does not match *Official Government Numbers*, then it's reason to suspect that the official numbers are a poor metric.

[1] https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/

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