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Maryland citizens hit with $2B power grid upgrade for out-of-state AI

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Re: Maryland citizens hit with $2B power grid upgrade for out-of-state AI

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But datcenters have been around for decades now. That's what makes it so insane. Around me people are rioting about the construction approval of a new DC, it has all the insane FUD on social media flying around about it. ...and yet there are already 24 datacenters in the area, with the oldest ones running since the early '00s

Legacy data centers were not representing a multiple of existing electricity demand. It is only recently that DCs are being built hoping to consume hundreds of MWs, up to GWs. Elsewhere in the thread is the Utah DC which will consume more electricity than the entire state. Electricity demand growth in the country has been flat for the past twenty years. DCs are causing real strains to the grid which has not had to ac…

>Electricity demand growth in the country has been flat for the past twenty years.

Interesting considering the similar outcry about bitcoin mining.

Re: Maryland citizens hit with $2B power grid upgrade for out-of-state AI

#92

It seems that big money can overrule local government regulators at will. Here in Nevada, (Warran Buffet owned) NV Energy already has approval for a "Demand Charge" that will increase rates for everyone, and further reduce the ridiculously low amount of money that consumers get for selling their excess solar power back to the grid. The regulators didn't even resist, but there has now been so much backlash that they'r…

A lot of these rules happen at the regulatory level so lawmakers don't typically understand them in depth and get a lot of their explanations from utility lobbyists or the regulatory agency itself, if they even get involved or pay attention. The dramatic increases being directly linked to data centers is big enough for consumers to notice though.

That's why these independent counsels are pretty important such as the Maryland agency mentioned in this article. Since utilities at least on the distribution side are pretty much monopolies people have no choice but to pay the agreed rate.

Re: Maryland citizens hit with $2B power grid upgrade for out-of-state AI

#93
post #4

I am curious how electricity is priced. Why are more and more utility providers charge based on ‘infrastructure cost’ or ‘fixed platform fee’ instead of usage fee?

This recent article from Semianalysis did a great job explaining part of it: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/are-ai-datacenters-inc...

Re: Maryland citizens hit with $2B power grid upgrade for out-of-state AI

#94
post #4

I am curious how electricity is priced. Why are more and more utility providers charge based on ‘infrastructure cost’ or ‘fixed platform fee’ instead of usage fee?

> Why are more and more utility providers charge based on ‘infrastructure cost’ or ‘fixed platform fee’ instead of usage fee?

Because unlike many commodities, electricity, once generated, is hard to store, yet supply must match demand in real time. You need to meet peak demand, even if normal usage is not as high. If you pay purely for usage, that might not send enough price signals to ensure that you have the necessary capacity when you need it. https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/enn/explainer-how-capac... has a more detailed overview of how markets are being structured to provide capacity, separate from actual generation.

Re: Maryland citizens hit with $2B power grid upgrade for out-of-state AI

#95
Even in Texas' "disconnected" grid, we're seeing the same mess. Oncor is currently staring down a mind-boggling 350 GW in data center requests - to put that in perspective, that's more than triple ERCOT's entire peak demand. They’re now pivoting to a $47 billion infrastructure spree just to keep up, and they’ve already pushed through a $560 million rate hike to help foot the bill. It’s the same story as Maryland: no matter how the local market is structured, residential ratepayers are the ones getting squeezed to subsidize the massive high-voltage buildouts these AI projects require. One benefit: the increased human interaction pulls me away from the terminal. Door-to-door power salesmen now have a regular relationship with my Nest doorbell, warning me of the impending "AI-pocalypse" because ratepayers in Dallas are going to be the ones subsidizing the West Texas buildout.

Re: Maryland citizens hit with $2B power grid upgrade for out-of-state AI

#96
post #16

We've been here before [1]. In that case, extra load on the grid meant the municipality needed to purchase more power (at higher prices), which raised everybody's prices. Electricity supply is highly regulated. Prices for electricity are constrained and often set by state regulators. These are so-called "usage fees". But beyond that the utility is allowed to charge customers for infrastructure and transmissio and tho…

> (there is no benefit)

This is the craziest part. We've long had publicly subsidized private projects, or corporate tax breaks given to entities with the fig leaf explanation that the projects will bring economic activity, or jobs, or some sort of long lasting, durable benefit, or even at its most craven, keep a stupid populace happy that their favorite sportsball team hasn't left their town.

Datacenters do none of these things. They don't bring any true employment numbers to make a difference. They don't materially improve their surroundings. They don't increase land value. They aren't an attractive neighbor. They don't benefit the tax base, not least of all when you're doling out massive tax breaks and deferments... no one _wants_ them, so it's not even like this is a "well, you're just not a Buffalo Bills fan, but the rest of us are, get on board!" situation.

There is zero net benefit to the citizens in these places to welcome these facilities to their town. Shorter latency to their chatbot of choice, maybe? But in any practical, moral hazard sense, these are all pure net negatives for the communities, and it's wild that these leaders think they're some sort of marquee, glamorous, prestigious win of a project.

Compare this with other, things-that-rhyme-but-aren't-the-same projects, like the TSMC fabs in Phoenix: these projects are bringing a ton of high-paying, new jobs (and, somewhat controversially, an expat community from Taiwan to help onboard them in the meantime), but they're also delivering in other economic terms because of the supply chain's knock-on effects: the TSMC fabs further the reputation of Phoenix as the Silicon Desert that Intel, OnSemi, Microchip, and Motorola had long been working towards, but at a much more amplified scale, and in a truly meaningful capacity. The money being spent here is staying here, and driving some real practical benefits. But even still, it's an open conversation around how careful we need to be with the water usage of these fabs (though TSMC is aiming towards 90%+ recapture in the next few years, I think it's ~60% right now), and other considerations... they are still, on balance, bringing 6,000-12,000 direct jobs, and even more indirect jobs as they continue to expand.

These datacenter projects don't even do _that_ well. They're just upsetting the power grid and creating unfortunate microclimates for the immediate vicinity for a handful of NOC jobs. (And some itinerant construction and engineering jobs.)

Re: Maryland citizens hit with $2B power grid upgrade for out-of-state AI

#97
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not entirely wrong. Annual electricity consumption per capita in Maryland has been falling since 2005[0]. Unless a bunch of aluminum smelting plants have come online in the past 18 months, data centers do seem the appropriate root cause leading to a surge in demand. [0] https://www.eia.gov/states/MD/data/dashboard/electricity cannot drop a direct link, but you can expand the "Total electricity consumption per c…

There’s another chart on that page that shows regional demand for electricity. That seems to have flattened or dropped. Not sure how to explain that, in the context of data center demand. Maybe I’m reading something wrong. Or maybe there is an anticipated increase in demand?

The only regional chart I see on that page is at hourly resolution.

Re: Maryland citizens hit with $2B power grid upgrade for out-of-state AI

#98
Seems people have the choice between power outtages and getting pollution by the untreated exhausts of small gas turbine that are running on the premises of AI data centers. It's horrible for humans.

Humans are so annoying, can't they move away from data centers?/s

Re: Maryland citizens hit with $2B power grid upgrade for out-of-state AI

#99
post #94
post #4

I am curious how electricity is priced. Why are more and more utility providers charge based on ‘infrastructure cost’ or ‘fixed platform fee’ instead of usage fee?

> Why are more and more utility providers charge based on ‘infrastructure cost’ or ‘fixed platform fee’ instead of usage fee? Because unlike many commodities, electricity, once generated, is hard to store, yet supply must match demand in real time. You need to meet peak demand, even if normal usage is not as high. If you pay purely for usage, that might not send enough price signals to ensure that you have the necess…

Hmmm, if you take a brick and mortar store, they have fixed costs to renovate and decorate the store, and they likely have capacity of the store that is not used during non-peak period as well. They charge for item sold, to cover for all costs they incurred for capacity of the store even during non-peak period as well. Is this an equivalent comparison? Don’t businesses generally roll in the fixed costs into their price and charge per unit still?

Re: Maryland citizens hit with $2B power grid upgrade for out-of-state AI

#100
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently not. Maryland residents didn’t sign any of these agreements in other states. Nor did their elected representatives. They were just presented with the bill to support the infrastructure in the other states because, you know, they’re so cool. And it doesn’t get any closer to the beltway than Maryland. What’s crazy is the utility company admits that the infrastructure is for the growth in the other states. Th…

One of Ohio's bigger utilities (AEP) recently just got a new tariff passed with the PUCO that required big electric users (i.e., datacentres) to actually commit with hard money when they said they expected some large increase in demand. The amount of power datacentres said they were going to use dropped significantly - well over half. So now the utility has far less it has to worry about in big time transmissions bui…

Excellent move, and I am surprised it was effective at such a low annoyance price.

The rumor is that many of the data centers have been shopping around in different utility markets, trying to assess where they could get the best/fastest build out. However, they are never informing the utility of sites which they will not develop. So some of these massive data centers may be getting double or triply counted for electricity demand projections.

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