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Nine women can already have babies in parallel. That is, nine women cannot have a baby in one month, but nine women can have nine babies in nine months.
Notably, his essay “no silver bullet” states that there has never been a new technology or way of thinking or working that has led to a 10X increase in the speed of software development. That was true for almost seventy years until roughly last year. AI is the silver bullet - my output is genuinely 10X what it was before claude code existed.
Notably, his essay “no silver bullet” states that there has never been a new technology or way of thinking or working that has led to a 10X increase in the speed of software development. That was true for almost seventy years until roughly last year. AI is the silver bullet - my output is genuinely 10X what it was before claude code existed.
First counterexample that comes to mind: Rails vs 90s networked/shared line-of-business crud app development was a 10x factor. It also enabled a lot of internal tools that wouldn't have been worth doing without it. But after people's expectations adjusted it was just back on the treadmill. I don't think we've found a new steady-state yet, but I have some gut feeling guesses about where it's going to be.
I remember when coding was free as in beer and freedom!
Notably, his essay “no silver bullet” states that there has never been a new technology or way of thinking or working that has led to a 10X increase in the speed of software development. That was true for almost seventy years until roughly last year. AI is the silver bullet - my output is genuinely 10X what it was before claude code existed.
At _this_ moment, AI is in the state of producing things - if you like with factor 10 or more. But what will come afterwards, when all this mush of code shall create _reliable_ results. This means not man month then, rather man years or decades to fix this billion and maybe trillions lines of opaque probabilistic LOC. You have to take the mean of these two stages, if nothing qualitative happens to the models.
Notably, his essay “no silver bullet” states that there has never been a new technology or way of thinking or working that has led to a 10X increase in the speed of software development. That was true for almost seventy years until roughly last year. AI is the silver bullet - my output is genuinely 10X what it was before claude code existed.
I haven't yet seen anyone with a concrete example project (public ideally, but even describing private efforts in enough detail to enable potential criticism would be fine) making a claim as strong as 10x. Are you willing to break the mould and show us what we're all missing?
We decided to integrate our SaaS into Microsoft Business Central and NetSuite as plugins into those systems. BC has its own programming language, called AL, that has a lot of idiosyncrasies from any other language I've worked with. And NetSuite plugins are written in SuiteScript, which is a custom JS runtime with a ton of APIs to learn.
In the "before", it would've taken 5 developers a year or more to build those integrations. I did both by myself in well under a year. Thank you Claude.
Notably, his essay “no silver bullet” states that there has never been a new technology or way of thinking or working that has led to a 10X increase in the speed of software development. That was true for almost seventy years until roughly last year. AI is the silver bullet - my output is genuinely 10X what it was before claude code existed.
If you’re 10x more productive, someone is willing to pay you 10x as much as they were last year, because you’re producing 10x as much value as before.
Has your salary increased 10x?
Notably, his essay “no silver bullet” states that there has never been a new technology or way of thinking or working that has led to a 10X increase in the speed of software development. That was true for almost seventy years until roughly last year. AI is the silver bullet - my output is genuinely 10X what it was before claude code existed.
You’re describing output while the essay is discussing productivity. If you’re 10x more productive, someone is willing to pay you 10x as much as they were last year, because you’re producing 10x as much value as before. Has your salary increased 10x?
Notably, his essay “no silver bullet” states that there has never been a new technology or way of thinking or working that has led to a 10X increase in the speed of software development. That was true for almost seventy years until roughly last year. AI is the silver bullet - my output is genuinely 10X what it was before claude code existed.
I haven't yet seen anyone with a concrete example project (public ideally, but even describing private efforts in enough detail to enable potential criticism would be fine) making a claim as strong as 10x. Are you willing to break the mould and show us what we're all missing?
https://github.com/KeibiSoft/KeibiDrop
It took me 2 years ago around 2k hours to build a cross platform FUSE vault, without using AI assisted tools.
The pain was debugging through logs and system traces. And understanding how things work.
Now managed to ship this one much faster, as an after hours project. Started it in may 2025, and around end of November 2025 started using claude on it.
Just by dumping logs into claude, and explaining the attack vector for the problems, saved me the FML moments of grindings walls of syscalls on 3 platforms.
I would say much easier to progress, and ship with the same rigour, minimize my time, focus and brain power involvement such that I can put the energy somewhere else.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I haven't yet seen anyone with a concrete example project (public ideally, but even describing private efforts in enough detail to enable potential criticism would be fine) making a claim as strong as 10x. Are you willing to break the mould and show us what we're all missing?
Here is a public project. https://github.com/KeibiSoft/KeibiDrop It took me 2 years ago around 2k hours to build a cross platform FUSE vault, without using AI assisted tools. The pain was debugging through logs and system traces. And understanding how things work. Now managed to ship this one much faster, as an after hours project. Started it in may 2025, and around end of November 2025 started using claude on it. Ju…
It's interesting to revisit Brooks' "surgical team" in light of AI. For example, I frequently have Claude act as a "toolsmith", creating bespoke project-specific tools on the fly, which are then documented in Skills that Claude can use going forward. What has changed is that a) One person (or rather, one person-AI hybrid) plays all the roles within the surgical team, and b) Internal frictions such as cost, developmen…