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Apple, Intel have reached preliminary chip-making deal

reuters.com

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Re: Apple, Intel have reached preliminary chip-making deal

#81

Post by aurareturn »

GeekyBear wrote: post #73
aurareturn wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The biggest reason to do this is because TSMC's N2 node and future nodes will be dominated by AI chips. Since AI chips have far bigger margins than most Apple chips, Apple will get outbid by companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom. Nvidia already became TSMC's biggest customer last year. Every TSMC advanced node from N5 to N2 is fully booked and running at max capacity. It's not really realistic to make Mac, Watch,…

> TSMC's N2 node and future nodes will be dominated by AI chips. Apple was reported to have locked up half of the initial year's 2nm production, which is lower than their share of 3nm, but hardly a sign of being squeezed out of the market

But this was likely locked up years ago before this boom. Will Apple still be the premier customer for TSMC's next node A14?

Apple was actually told by TSMC to move off of N3 asap because Nvidia with its Vera Rubin and Google TPUs will take over.

Semianalysis had a great and detailed article about TSMC & Apple and how the future might play out: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/apple-tsmc-the-partner...

Re: Apple, Intel have reached preliminary chip-making deal

#82

Post by IsTom »

OhMeadhbh wrote: post #67

how do you get to the content? I keep getting a 401 and a message to "enable JS and disable any ad blocker" even though JavaScript(tm) is enabled and I don't have an ad blocker. Do you have to use Safari or Edge or something?

Well, I'm using uBlock Origin on Firefox and can see the content just fine. So maybe that's the way.

Re: Apple, Intel have reached preliminary chip-making deal

#83

Post by whynotminot »

signatoremo wrote: post #54
whynotminot wrote: post #25

Big deal, smart for all parties, really. Apple standards will make Intel step up and become a better foundry partner. Apple will gain increasingly needed diversification. US supply chain gets a boost. Should be fine for TSMC in the short to medium term. Apple not going to risk actual mainline iPhone SoC on Intel any time soon, so lion share of TSMC Apple revenue will be fine.

It’s the main processor: Apple Inc. has held exploratory discussions about using Intel Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. to produce the main processors for its devices in the US, a move that would offer a secondary option beyond longtime partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. [0] (paywalled) They wouldn’t need either Intel or Samsung if it wasn’t bleeding edge. I think it’s 14A for Intel. TSMC is still have t…

What does “main” mean? Main processor for a flagship iPhone? Or main processor for a HomePod?

There’s a lot of “main” processors for Apple’s devices at this point.

I would be deeply skeptical of a brand new flagship iPhone Pro having an Intel fab’d SoC until at least a few years into this arrangement.

Re: Apple, Intel have reached preliminary chip-making deal

#84

Post by brookst »

_diyar wrote: post #71

Here’s my guess as to Apple's reasoning: They like to dominate suppliers, but TSMC is in such high demand that they’re on equal footing now. Going into bed with Intel gives them the chance to set strict terms again.

Certainly an aspect; would you rather negotiate with a supplier who has more power, or less power?

But it’s likely not a one-dimensional decision. Supply chain diversification, China / Taiwan, Intel having established US fabs, on and on. Seems like a wise decision in every way.

Re: Apple, Intel have reached preliminary chip-making deal

#85

Post by aurareturn »

9cb14c1ec0 wrote: post #38
whynotminot wrote: post #25

Big deal, smart for all parties, really. Apple standards will make Intel step up and become a better foundry partner. Apple will gain increasingly needed diversification. US supply chain gets a boost. Should be fine for TSMC in the short to medium term. Apple not going to risk actual mainline iPhone SoC on Intel any time soon, so lion share of TSMC Apple revenue will be fine.

> Apple not going to risk actual mainline iPhone SoC on Intel any time soon Not to mention that Intel does not and will not any time in the next decade have the capacity for a product of that quantity.

ASML is one of the bigger bottlenecks I hear. They're fully booked out years in advance so even if Intel wants to build many more fabs, they can't.

There was a recent interview with Dylan Patel and he explained it pretty well.

Basically, there are tiers of risks and how "AGI pilled" each tier is. The bottlenecks and supply constraints get worse and worse as you down down the tiers.

Tier 1: OpenAI/Anthropic - extremely AGI pilled and think it's a sure thing. They want all layers underneath to prepare to make as many chips as possible and go all in.

Tier 2: Nvidia/AMD/Broadcom - very bullish but doesn't think AGI is a sure thing

Tier 3: TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, Intel, Sandisk, Micron - bullish but if they're wrong and overbuild, they can actually go bankrupt. Each fab can cost tens of billions. An N2 fab is estimated to be $30b each.

Tier 4: Every supplier to T3 such as ASML, Applied Materials, other fab machines and suppliers - Less bullish, may even see this as just a super cycle rather than a permanent increase in demand so they're less inclined to take too many risks to scale up

Re: Apple, Intel have reached preliminary chip-making deal

#86

Post by ryandrake »

rvz wrote: post #26

Intel was not "allowed" to fail. (But Spirit Airlines was) and now the stock is at an all time high. It was only 9 months ago [0] that almost everyone here was bearish (not me [1]). Now it is the opposite. Next we will here some folks wishing they should have joined Intel when it was $20 a share. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44675965 [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44676641

Intel is the Chrysler of chipmaking. It's only alive because the USA strategically needs a USA company to be able to make and design at least some kind of chips.

Re: Apple, Intel have reached preliminary chip-making deal

#87

Post by brookst »

aurareturn wrote: post #48
whynotminot wrote: post #25

Big deal, smart for all parties, really. Apple standards will make Intel step up and become a better foundry partner. Apple will gain increasingly needed diversification. US supply chain gets a boost. Should be fine for TSMC in the short to medium term. Apple not going to risk actual mainline iPhone SoC on Intel any time soon, so lion share of TSMC Apple revenue will be fine.

The biggest reason to do this is because TSMC's N2 node and future nodes will be dominated by AI chips. Since AI chips have far bigger margins than most Apple chips, Apple will get outbid by companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom. Nvidia already became TSMC's biggest customer last year. Every TSMC advanced node from N5 to N2 is fully booked and running at max capacity. It's not really realistic to make Mac, Watch,…

Nvidia’s chips aren’t usually on the latest nodes. The M5 is in N3P, Blackwell is N4P. M6 is expected to be on an N2 node while Rubin is N3P.

I don’t think Nvidia even has an N2 chip announced, could be wrong through.

Re: Apple, Intel have reached preliminary chip-making deal

#88

Post by GeekyBear »

aurareturn wrote: post #81
GeekyBear wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> TSMC's N2 node and future nodes will be dominated by AI chips. Apple was reported to have locked up half of the initial year's 2nm production, which is lower than their share of 3nm, but hardly a sign of being squeezed out of the market

But this was likely locked up years ago before this boom. Will Apple still be the premier customer for TSMC's next node A14? Apple was actually told by TSMC to move off of N3 asap because Nvidia with its Vera Rubin and Google TPUs will take over. Semianalysis had a great and detailed article about TSMC & Apple and how the future might play out: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/apple-tsmc-the-partner...

The reporting was from August of last year.

https://www.macrumors.com/2025/08/28/apple-tsmc-2nm-producti...

Re: Apple, Intel have reached preliminary chip-making deal

#89

Post by aurareturn »

benced wrote: post #60
9cb14c1ec0 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apple not going to risk actual mainline iPhone SoC on Intel any time soon Not to mention that Intel does not and will not any time in the next decade have the capacity for a product of that quantity.

Next decade seems possibly false - if Intel starts getting deals and commitments now, it takes them about half a decade to build a fab. Agree it seems unlikely though.

Intel doesn't even have enough capacity right now to make enough Xeon chips. CPU demand is absolutely booming but their Intel 18A and 3 nodes don't have great yields.

Re: Apple, Intel have reached preliminary chip-making deal

#90

Post by aurareturn »

_diyar wrote: post #71

Here’s my guess as to Apple's reasoning: They like to dominate suppliers, but TSMC is in such high demand that they’re on equal footing now. Going into bed with Intel gives them the chance to set strict terms again.

Getting another supplier certainly makes negotiations easier but I doubt it's the main reason. The main reason is that TSMC simply does not have enough wafers no matter how much money Apple throws at them. TSMC is fully booked in 2026 and well into 2027 from reports.

It's not clear if it's going to get better either. It could get worse in terms of supply.

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