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Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI
261–270 of 364 posts
Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI
#262Progress, in any meaningful sense, has to mean we are more capable of sustaining ourselves than we were before. Burning down the commons to train and serve a mythomaniac chatbot is not that. The consumer markets that still worked will shrink, and some will die.
Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI
#263Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why would most people need a home server rack? That's a lot of noise, space, and electrical usage. For what most people would need a home "server" for a NUC PC or Mac Mini would do the job.
Ziply Fiber is offering 50 gbps home internet connections in some US locations. You cannot utilize that type of speed with a Mac Mini. Even the modest 8-10gbps connections offered by T-Mobile and Google probably require more.
> You cannot utilize that type of speed with a Mac Mini.
Mostly because the base Mini has Thunderbolt 4 which maxes out at 40Gbps. Anything with a PCIe 4.0 x16 slot will take a 100Gbps NIC. 100Gbps is around 10GBps (8 bits per byte plus encapsulation overhead). Desktop CPUs can do AES-GCM at 2.5GBps+ per core and have up to 16 cores and around 50GBps of memory bandwidth (dual channel DDR4-3200), so the NIC still seems like the bottleneck.
Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI
#264Earlier quoted context omitted.
It might just be frustrated young people. They're getting squeezed real hard by a system that was set up to put them on an impossible trajectory before they were even born. You can see the divide everywhere. People with lots of money think supply and demand, congestion pricing, etc. are great tools because it doesn't impact them at all compared to people on the bottom. Those are only good solutions if you're not the…
I think it’s probably mostly what your sibling comment said, it’s very cheap to sow division and discord now. I get what you’re saying, and there definitely are people who are angry about the US slipping, and standards of living reverting to the mean a bit, and looking to blame someone. The True Believer came out in the aftermath of WW2 and tried to analyze why it happened, and laid out that the most dangerous group…
> The True Believer came out in the aftermath of WW2 and tried to analyze why it happened, and laid out that the most dangerous group of people aren’t the ones who’ve been poor for a long time, but those who were recently poor, who remembered a more prosperous time.
Is it just people trying to sow division when you're potentially describing an entire upcoming generation?
> People need to have some perspective. You’re not permanently locked out of useful AI models, it’s within reach of most who can save a bit to go get a pair of used 3090s on eBay and run some pretty useful models.
I don’t agree. The current generation of young people can’t afford housing and education without taking on decades of debt. Buying a pair of 3090s for local AI isn’t even on the radar. Even if they could, it’s unlikely they’d be able to make productive use of them. The big AI companies haven’t even scraped the surface when it comes to memory, specialized knowledge, etc..
I see people downvoted my comment and I’m not sure why. I’m not trying to pile on to create drama. I’m trying to explain there’s a growing cohort of people that have a right to be angry because they’re watching global productivity increase as their standard of living is decreasing. Who wouldn’t be upset?
The dangerous part is that people angry about it are easy to sway with propaganda. It’s not the billionaire families colluding to fix food prices, which happened with bread in Canada, it’s the “insert another marginalized group here” that’s causing the problem.
Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI
#265Earlier quoted context omitted.
If you’re dropping that kind of cash, you definitely want to future proof it and not go with the budget lastgen motherboards.
Buy a $300 motherboard now in case you need future features, or buy a $100 motherboard now that does everything you currently need and then buy a second or even third $100 motherboard if you ever actually need those future improvements. Then you get a new board designed for the new features instead of something several years old and you come out $100 on top. Futureproofing is nonsense. PCs just don't work that way, a…
The only 2 parts that even make sence to "future proof" are power supply and case.
Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI
#266I know it's going to be extremely painful, but the sooner this ridiculous unsustainable AI bubble pops the better off we'll be. The more it inflates the more collateral damage it will cause, and we're probably already looking at 2008 levels of financial chaos.
What’s the feedback loop that leads to a total financial collapse? This looks much more like dotcom bubble. Everyone knows where the exposure is.
I think it comes down to scale (there's like 2 trillion invested so far by very large institutions) and also AI hollowing out foolish companies that decided to go "AI native" and downsize and lose institutional knowledge. When the rug pull inevitably comes and the AI subsidies are gone, the entire idea of "efficiency gains" in a lot of places is going to look pretty bad as soon as they look at their bill.
Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI
#267Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I already have home sever rack, and would recommend it for other people. I just want to warn people who haven't heard server-grade hardware in-person before: this is only for people who can put a server rack somewhere unpopulated like a garage or basement. Servers will make you think "wow, leafblowers sure are quiet". They are not suitable for apartment dwellers such as myself. When I was setting up my 1U before sh…
You can buy server boards that don’t require loud fans. If you’re buying used server gear from a datacenter then it will be like what you said. I have a 4U NAS with a supermicro board and an i3 chip with 6 WD Red NAS drives and it’s very quiet. The chassis came without fans so I installed the brand I like.
no, you definitely cannot. you probably have a consumer board in a 4u case
Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI
#268Motherboards used to be $100, $200 for the high end. Now they want $300+, ram is crazy, storage, video cards, etc. I'm not surprised sales for these components is hitting a wall.
I mean, if you think about all the motherboard does, and how many layers the PCB has to support all the features such that for a vast majority of users, the only things you need besides the motherboard is a CPU, some RAM, storage (either in M.2 or SATA) and maybe a dGPU, it's wild that it is often the cheapest item in the PC.
Well to be fair processors, ram and modern storage are lithography required to make parts. Not sure how much lithography the chipset requires.
Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI
#269Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am massively sick of gaming focused boards. I don’t want my board to be “tough” or “mil-spec” or be extra shiny or have fancy-proprietary-auto-overclock. I want a reliable board that complies with all the specs it claims to support. Low idle power consumption would be nice, too. This is obnoxiously difficult to shop for in the desktop/workstation space.
The PCIe lanes are the worst. You have x16 slots that run x1, you need to check slots with m.2 to make sure an x8 doesn't become x4 if you insert storage. Wait if I plug something into the thunderbolt port my 10g network card runs at half speed? Obviously these are actual physical limitation from PCIe lane counts, but it makes it impossible to search. Just painfull.
My advice to anyone doing motherboard shopping is to read the manual off the manufacture's site before deciding. The pcie lane tradeoffs tend to be in the block diagram next to the contents page.
Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI
#270I think the shocking part is it's only projected to go down with 25%. That's quite mild given the increase in memory, storage and GPU prices, in my view.