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Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

tomshardware.com

161–170 of 364 posts

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#161
post #24

High end resins and epoxies are in a critical supply shortage right now. I suspect that there are going to be some serious resource driven PCB shortages in the very near future.

Is there an industry newsletter or source where one can read up on this? All I can find is a single article from Reuters.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#163

Reminds me of how ever since egg prices went to the moon we've all had to give up dessert and subsist on thin gruel for breakfast. What's that? Egg prices are back down after suppliers cranked up their output? Surely nothing like that is possible with hardware... Personal computing is dead forever...

That’s the issue: ram suppliers have not started building new fabs, which means they expect this demand to be temporary and they’re just going to make a killing on it while they can. It takes years to get a fab up, and they think demand will be gone by then. So that means ridiculous prices now, and if demand doesn’t drop, ridiculous prices until someone thinks the demand will continue for four more years after that moment. Whatever the moment, building for four years out is a risk. So this could last forever.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#164
post #59

PC is the last major open platform. While other platforms like Android and becoming less open, PC in general is becoming more open than it's been in a long time as heavy MacOS/Android/iOS competition is creating a focus on open standards and all-time high strong Linux support gives people a place to land and tinker/hack to their heart's content. I think we will see an abandonment of consumer grade PC components and i…

> I already have home sever rack, and would recommend it for other people. I just want to warn people who haven't heard server-grade hardware in-person before: this is only for people who can put a server rack somewhere unpopulated like a garage or basement. Servers will make you think "wow, leafblowers sure are quiet". They are not suitable for apartment dwellers such as myself. When I was setting up my 1U before sh…

This. At one company we ran out of space in the server room, so the excess machine temporarily landed next to my desk. Dear god. Noise cancelling headphones couldn't cope with the noise.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you don't care to go into detail, that's fine, but your answer is vague No lairs necessary. You can read up on people who do FIRE.

99% of people who follow that are still completely dependent on the world order and will be just as screwed as everybody else if everything goes tits-up.

The aim is to be screwed last. That's a reasonable survival strategy.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#166
post #2

Not just motherboards. Cases, PC accessories (fans, etc), consumer SSDs, and more. Cases are especially hard hit, apparently, as they're already quite a low margin business. Personally, I see little reason to upgrade from my AM4 platform. It's never been easier to hold on to aging hardware with the advent of DLSS stretching older cards further, diminishing returns on the newer gen GPUs, and the 'realism' of video gam…

What's wild is with all this craziness going on, it is sounding like AMD is bringing back the 5800X3D for another kick at the can. AM4 has got to be one of the greatest platforms to ever exist.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#167
post #59

PC is the last major open platform. While other platforms like Android and becoming less open, PC in general is becoming more open than it's been in a long time as heavy MacOS/Android/iOS competition is creating a focus on open standards and all-time high strong Linux support gives people a place to land and tinker/hack to their heart's content. I think we will see an abandonment of consumer grade PC components and i…

Assuming this trend continues, I think people are going to start re-using older hardware rather than turning to server-grade hardware (which is often not convenient for the average residential situation).

At least, that's what I hope happens. What will probably happen is people will continue to migrate away from the PC platform and towards closed platforms for the convenience, if history is any indication.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#168
post #5
post #3

10-12 Months ago I had commented here that people are not realising that AI is going to price us normal people out of computer hardware and we need China to actually reach on parity with node size. And sadly it looks like I was correct in my prediction.

It's an active attack on the Hobbyist space. Qualcomm buying Arduino solidified this idea in my head. They literally want us to own nothing.

[dead]

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#169
post #59

PC is the last major open platform. While other platforms like Android and becoming less open, PC in general is becoming more open than it's been in a long time as heavy MacOS/Android/iOS competition is creating a focus on open standards and all-time high strong Linux support gives people a place to land and tinker/hack to their heart's content. I think we will see an abandonment of consumer grade PC components and i…

> I already have home sever rack, and would recommend it for other people. I just want to warn people who haven't heard server-grade hardware in-person before: this is only for people who can put a server rack somewhere unpopulated like a garage or basement. Servers will make you think "wow, leafblowers sure are quiet". They are not suitable for apartment dwellers such as myself. When I was setting up my 1U before sh…

> my 1U

1Us have the most compromised ventilation and compensate with loud fans running at high speeds.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#170
post #3

10-12 Months ago I had commented here that people are not realising that AI is going to price us normal people out of computer hardware and we need China to actually reach on parity with node size. And sadly it looks like I was correct in my prediction.

After the recent run-up, where are prices on a per-performance basis? Back to 2019? Computers were incredibly more expensive when I was growing up. People bought them anyway. Is a computer that lasts 5-8 really productive years (and is still serviceable for another 5-7) and costs $1500 really a deal-breaker just because it was $1000 and on sale for $850 a year ago? Even if it doubled again, it still doesn’t price nor…

> Is a computer that lasts 5-8 really productive years (and is still serviceable for another 5-7) and costs $1500 really a deal-breaker just because it was $1000 and on sale for $850 a year ago? Even if it doubled again, it still doesn’t price normal people out, IMO.

Maybe it's different in the US. In Canada, the median income for 25-54 years old was just under $60k / year in 2024. When you're talking about a $3k USD computer, it's pushing 10% or more of the median after tax income. My gut reaction to that is that most people don't even end up with that much disposable income in total, let alone for a single purchase.

HN is skewed with people way at the top end of income earners, especially on a global scale. Imagine getting $30k / year to spend on everything you need and then consider how much $3k on a computer is.

My dad had to take a loan to buy our first computer. Who wants that? It's dumbfounding to see the number of people cheering on backwards progress where we end up where we were 3+ decades ago.

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