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Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

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Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#82

Maybe with AI we can finally kill user-owned computing, and make almost everyone renters. It's really wrong that the common people have access to things like PCs. It leaves a lot of money on the table the corporations can extract, and makes control much harder. PCs should cost at least as much as a car, so only the right people can afford them. Own nothing and be happy.

[flagged]

Not to mention the comment agents. The true AI bro/sis won't waste her/his time commenting when an agent can do it for him/her.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#83
post #35

We are in AI mania right now. I dont think this will continue forever.

Smaller manufacturers will fold, and larger ones will leave the consumer market (like Micron/Crucial did), before the market has a chance to bounce back. If and when it does recover, it will be a market of much fewer choices.

A somewhat comparable historical example is the destruction of the Swiss watch industry in the 70s with the advent of quartz and digital watches.

A Rolex Daytona today is known as a very fancy and even hard-to-get watch. In the 70s they were practically giving them away with other watch purchases because electronic watches were taking their lunch.

The bigger takeaway, I think, is the destruction and folding eventually lead to the Swatch group. People forget Rolex, Omega, et. al. were tool watches that were expensive but fairly attainable. Even into the 90s you could walk into a Rolex store and walk out with the watch you wanted. Nowadays you basically have to buy a watch to prove you're good enough to get the one you want.

I forsee a similar thing happening with computing hardware. There will be a small high-end side industry for non-datacenter customers.

The digital watch user will be renting time for a thin client via a datacenter provider. The wealthy or high status user will be able to purchase the expensive boutique home computing hardware they want.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#84
post #61

Maybe with AI we can finally kill user-owned computing, and make almost everyone renters. It's really wrong that the common people have access to things like PCs. It leaves a lot of money on the table the corporations can extract, and makes control much harder. PCs should cost at least as much as a car, so only the right people can afford them. Own nothing and be happy.

PCs are also made by corporations, together with PC parts. The reason computing became so cheap during the last 50 years was competition between said corporations. Competition that is also pushing the AI token price down and also encouraging - corporations - to come up with models that can run on user hardware. So what are you ranting against?! > Own nothing and be happy. Ah, here it is. Only governments can confisca…

The “own nothing and be happy” quote is from a blog post made by the World Economic Forum. I find meta-governmental organisations even more troublesome, and you can’t vote them out.

It isn’t only conspiracy theorists who should be disturbed by whatever politico-corporate freemasonry that goes on in Davos.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#85
I'm sure the AI shortages are hurting, but also I'm still using my same motherboard from 2020 and I see no reason why I should have to upgrade in the next 2-3 years (whenever I buy my RTX 7070Ti, it might be time, but maybe not even then).

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#86
post #79
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How will you do that?

To be owned, someone needs leverage over you or the ability to coerce you. I spent the last half a century making sure they have no leverage and I am not interested in being coerced. It's called security.

Hey guys, Richard Stallman is on HN!

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#87
post #79
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How will you do that?

To be owned, someone needs leverage over you or the ability to coerce you. I spent the last half a century making sure they have no leverage and I am not interested in being coerced. It's called security.

If you don't care to go into detail, that's fine, but your answer is vague. E.g. do you have a hidden, off-grid, underground lair?

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#88
post #5
post #3

10-12 Months ago I had commented here that people are not realising that AI is going to price us normal people out of computer hardware and we need China to actually reach on parity with node size. And sadly it looks like I was correct in my prediction.

It's an active attack on the Hobbyist space. Qualcomm buying Arduino solidified this idea in my head. They literally want us to own nothing.

Who cares if Qualcomm owns Arduino. It has never been cheaper to get into embedded computing. You can buy Arduino-compatible STM32 Nucleo boards straight from STMicroelectronics for $15-20, and that's first party. If you're willing to buy third party clones there are boards on AliExpress for $10 or less.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#89

I was looking into self-hosting deekseek v4 pro since frankly cache reads are an absolute scam and they're 90% of the cost, but then I looked at the ROI and it will never pay off fast enough because the hardware will become obsolete faster even if you were running 10 token generation streams 24/7. The napkin math resulted that renting is around 27 times cheaper than owning (not including power). I think we're really…

Ironically the few people not scamming you for cache reads are Deepseek.

Everyone else charges a ridiculous amount but Deepseeks API is $0.003625 / M tok.

I'm surprised no one talks about this because of how significant it is. GPT 5.5 for example costs a ridiculous $0.50 / M tok cached. It's literally almost 140 times cheaper which matters a lot for tool calls.

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