Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI • Hacker News Board

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#71

Post by cogman10 » Thu, May 07, 2026, 5:21 PM UTC

xbmcuser wrote: post #3

10-12 Months ago I had commented here that people are not realising that AI is going to price us normal people out of computer hardware and we need China to actually reach on parity with node size. And sadly it looks like I was correct in my prediction.

And currently the US government is actively trying to ban chinese hardware from the consumer market [1]. So gonna be real fun.

Maybe we'll get a chinese hardware black market.

[1] https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulat...

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#72

Post by hx8 » Thu, May 07, 2026, 5:21 PM UTC

hackernudes wrote: post #30

Will demand for computing ever go down from where it is now? Even if the AI bubble temporarily pops, in the long run I think the demand for computers will be practically infinite. Market forces will probably bring the price of hardware down in the next decade. Whether it is in a form that is useful for regular people/hobbyists is another question. If not, then hopefully the "cloud" starts to look a lot different.

I think it's possible (10-15%) that the AI bubble pops and we all live without 50M token/day OpenClaw installs and running Opus to do things that should have been done by a shell script to the point that it causes a dip in total compute demand. I think it's likely (75% likely if the AI bubble pop causes a dip in compute demand) that this dip extends longer than the median lifespan of the hardware currently being installed in datacenter.

Of course in 20 years we'll be using more compute than today (99% likely).

EDIT: Of course cryptocurrencies provide a floor compute pricing.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#73

Post by bluefirebrand » Thu, May 07, 2026, 5:21 PM UTC

nickpp wrote: post #61

palmotea wrote: post #28

Maybe with AI we can finally kill user-owned computing, and make almost everyone renters. It's really wrong that the common people have access to things like PCs. It leaves a lot of money on the table the corporations can extract, and makes control much harder. PCs should cost at least as much as a car, so only the right people can afford them. Own nothing and be happy.

PCs are also made by corporations, together with PC parts. The reason computing became so cheap during the last 50 years was competition between said corporations. Competition that is also pushing the AI token price down and also encouraging - corporations - to come up with models that can run on user hardware. So what are you ranting against?! > Own nothing and be happy. Ah, here it is. Only governments can confisca…

> Only governments can confiscate our property and force us into that.

... Do you want corporations to have that power too or something? What are you saying here?

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#74

Post by cortesoft » Thu, May 07, 2026, 5:22 PM UTC

stavros wrote: post #44

2ndorderthought wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

If you want it to be sarcasm, treat it like sarcasm. What's the worst thing that could happen?

Well, the last time I assumed everyone was being sarcastic and ironic, until they actually elected the guy president.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#75

Post by lifestyleguru » Thu, May 07, 2026, 5:22 PM UTC

wtetzner wrote: post #53

lifestyleguru wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This looks like a consumer choice and producers are following up with the demand.

Given that the AI companies are still operating at a loss and running on investor money, I'm not sure it's actually driven by consumer choice.

Consumers are not helping though. They do everything on a smartphone and don't even blink when mobile app is required for most trivial things.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#76

Post by fzeroracer » Thu, May 07, 2026, 5:23 PM UTC

GolfPopper wrote: post #47

ButyTh0 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because they own nothing but make believe stocks and life works great for them. The mega-rich are 100% decoupled from physical reality. May as well treat them more like tribal shaman, priests, preachers, and rabbis. Just parroting memes the likewise idiot politicians believe are the magic chants that keep gravity itself pulling together the Earth. "Omg he said the thing! Cut his taxes! Give him welfare!" Our generati…

> May as well treat them more like tribal shaman, priests, preachers, and rabbis. Why associate them with roles that have a degree of positive association and human connection? Treating them as faeries, vampires, or demons seems more accurate.

I think treating them as the fae, vampire or demons is sort of insulting. Those creatures are at least bound by supernatural laws and can be negotiated with in some way.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#77

Post by stavros » Thu, May 07, 2026, 5:23 PM UTC

cortesoft wrote: post #74

stavros wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you want it to be sarcasm, treat it like sarcasm. What's the worst thing that could happen?

Well, the last time I assumed everyone was being sarcastic and ironic, until they actually elected the guy president.

Haha, ah yes, good old GWB.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#78

Post by Gathering6678 » Thu, May 07, 2026, 5:24 PM UTC

ahartmetz wrote: post #9

xbmcuser wrote: post #3

10-12 Months ago I had commented here that people are not realising that AI is going to price us normal people out of computer hardware and we need China to actually reach on parity with node size. And sadly it looks like I was correct in my prediction.

At current prices, Chinese companies could even produce everything possible (~anything but current gen CPUs and GPUs) on slightly older nodes and make a stonking profit while lowering market prices.

China is also short on supply... Capex for these are planned years ahead and just not flexible enough to deal with the supply squeeze right now.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#79

Post by cryo32 » Thu, May 07, 2026, 5:24 PM UTC

dmos62 wrote: post #56

cryo32 wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sarcasm aside, yep. There will be three classes: the owned, the owners and the unownable. I aim to be unownable.

How will you do that?

To be owned, someone needs leverage over you or the ability to coerce you.

I spent the last half a century making sure they have no leverage and I am not interested in being coerced.

It's called security.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#80

Post by rokkamokka » Thu, May 07, 2026, 5:26 PM UTC

psadauskas wrote: post #60

therepanic wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will be two classes: those who are part of the perpetual underclass and those who are not. And 98 percent of the population will be part of it.

There are _already_ two classes: Those who earn their living from their labor, and those whose income is derived simply by owning things they (often) didn't create themselves and charge for access.

The root of most of society's problems right there...