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Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

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Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#11

Post by ButyTh0 »

jmclnx wrote: post #7
tetris11 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an active attack on the Hobbyist space. Qualcomm buying Arduino solidified this idea in my head. They literally want us to own nothing.

Tin foil hat :) But in a way I do agree with you, I doubt it is as organized as you imply. Yes, companies and governments do not way anyone on a General Computing Device at all. They want to see exactly what content you are viewing and responding to. Microsoft and Apple have been slowly adding various forms of spyware and locking down what applications you can use. And Cell Phones ? Those are the Holy Grail of what M…

Why do you doubt this when the rich also have Signal? They meet and talk out of view? The insider trading coming out of Washington?

Why when emails from discovery in labor disputes between google and apple in the 2010s revealed they engage in exactly the sort of manipulation you disbelieve?

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#12

Post by armchairhacker »

tetris11 wrote: post #5
xbmcuser wrote: post #3

10-12 Months ago I had commented here that people are not realising that AI is going to price us normal people out of computer hardware and we need China to actually reach on parity with node size. And sadly it looks like I was correct in my prediction.

It's an active attack on the Hobbyist space. Qualcomm buying Arduino solidified this idea in my head. They literally want us to own nothing.

Hobbyist equipment is still relatively cheap. You can get previous-gen hardware for formerly current-gen prices, you can run lots of “hobbyist” software on low RAM and no GPU.

It’s bad, but it’s not “literally own nothing”.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#13

Post by matthewaveryusa »

bobomonkey wrote: post #8
int32_64 wrote: post #6

The brief window between the covid gaming bubble pop/PoS ETH switch and the AI hardware blackhole will be fondly remembered as the last golden age of consumer PC hardware accessibility.

If China keeps releasing decent copies of SOTA models that only take 20% of the resources, then we may get some relief when those models become "good-enough"

I've been using deepseek and it's good enough for my personal use. It takes way more time/tokens/course-correcting to get things done, but I spend in a month what I spend in a day with opus 4.6

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#14

Post by gruez »

bobomonkey wrote: post #8
int32_64 wrote: post #6

The brief window between the covid gaming bubble pop/PoS ETH switch and the AI hardware blackhole will be fondly remembered as the last golden age of consumer PC hardware accessibility.

If China keeps releasing decent copies of SOTA models that only take 20% of the resources, then we may get some relief when those models become "good-enough"

>copies of SOTA models that only take 20% of the resources

They might be 20% of the price (because they don't have to invest that much in training), but are probably not 20% of the resources (ie. inference), considering they take more tokens to do the same task, and have slower inference speeds.

https://x.com/scaling01/status/2050616057191072161

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#18

Post by jauntywundrkind »

armchairhacker wrote: post #12
tetris11 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an active attack on the Hobbyist space. Qualcomm buying Arduino solidified this idea in my head. They literally want us to own nothing.

Hobbyist equipment is still relatively cheap. You can get previous-gen hardware for formerly current-gen prices, you can run lots of “hobbyist” software on low RAM and no GPU. It’s bad, but it’s not “literally own nothing”.

The second hand market is going to have much much more lag. But it's very unclear that this is going to sustain indefinitely.

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#19

Post by [deleted] »

tetris11 wrote: post #5
xbmcuser wrote: post #3

10-12 Months ago I had commented here that people are not realising that AI is going to price us normal people out of computer hardware and we need China to actually reach on parity with node size. And sadly it looks like I was correct in my prediction.

It's an active attack on the Hobbyist space. Qualcomm buying Arduino solidified this idea in my head. They literally want us to own nothing.

[deleted]

Re: Motherboard sales 'collapse' amid unprecedented shortages fueled by AI

#20

Post by MostlyStable »

armchairhacker wrote: post #12
tetris11 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an active attack on the Hobbyist space. Qualcomm buying Arduino solidified this idea in my head. They literally want us to own nothing.

Hobbyist equipment is still relatively cheap. You can get previous-gen hardware for formerly current-gen prices, you can run lots of “hobbyist” software on low RAM and no GPU. It’s bad, but it’s not “literally own nothing”.

Yeah, I'm not sure that fewer people will own computers, I do think people will shift to much longer upgrade cycles.
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