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Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

paulkrugman.substack.com

121–130 of 367 posts

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#121

If you are trading in the futures market and you don't have inside info or are not an actual supplier of the commodity, you are the sucker.

To be fair, you could also be a real world user of a commodity and productively use futures markets. For example, an airline or trucking company using them to hedge fuel prices.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#122
post #72

I remember one take I had in 2024 after the election. We're all familiar with some of the "defund the police" experiments that went too far in places like Portland and San Francisco and resulted in things like epidemics of casual shoplifting. Well, what we just did is basically the white collar crime equivalent. We now have a wide open free for all for all forms of white collar crime. You can just insider trade, laun…

> You can just insider trade, launder money, commit investment fraud, anything you want, the way you saw random people just walking into CVS drug stores years ago in SF and grabbing stuff and walking out. Something I'd disagree with is... enforcement will not help against what causes people to turn out and steal in stores. Fix widespread poverty, get people out of homelessness, help people legitimately get off of dru…

> enforcement will not help against what causes people to turn out and steal in stores

Yes and no. Enforcement deters career criminals by increasing the cost of doing business. Improving society means fewer honest people have to turn to crime.

> insider traders and billion-scale fraudsters - they do not have the need for survival pushing them to do crime. It is just pure unchecked greed that drives them

Right, so career criminals. See above.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#123
post #4

So if this sort of "insider trading" is bad, what does this mean for other sorts off strategies hedge funds do to get an edge, like flying helicopters to look at how full oil storage tanks are? Should that be banned too? The article basically argues that any sort of edge is bad because it disincentivizes others from participating. edit: see my subsequent comment. I'm not saying corruption is good. The whole point of…

Wait, those big oil tanks don’t have lids? Doesn’t that mean rain would mix with the oil??

>Wait, those big oil tanks don’t have lids? Doesn’t that mean rain would mix with the oil??

Modern tanks have floating lids. The lid is as much for keeping the volatiles in as keeping water out. Water gets into all sorts of places in oil refining anyway. It wouldn't really matter anyway since oil and water being famously good at mixing. You can just draw water off the bottom, filter it or boil it off depending on the situation and amount. Obviously they don't want more water (you're wasting money processing everything that you can't sell) but some isn't a big deal.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The U.S. Department of Justice said Wednesday that it had charged 30 people allegedly linked with a decade-long insider trading scheme involving high-profile law firms." https://www.newsweek.com/premier-law-firms-spy-ring-11920914

Let me guess, these guys said something bad about Trump? Not that it means that they didn’t do it, just that they would not have gotten charged otherwise.

The list doesn't corroborate that. The international component seems important.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#126
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguably people who voted for Trump are somewhat responsible, and include a lot of car drivers. (Not to imply that many Democrat politicians aren't also owned by AIPAC and big business.)

I didn’t vote for Trump but I don’t blame the voters. I don’t think many people foresaw him doing this on either side of the political aisle. Other stuff we disapprove of, yes. But not this. I say that because he had famously resisted to enter extended conflict in his first term. Maybe he wanted to but now has the chance since he’s in his final years. (At least, I hope it’s his final years.) But I didn’t hear anyone…

It was pretty obvious he was wanting to enter a conflict with someone, and was mostly held back in his first term by the actual professionals in his cabinet at that time. But the guy wanted a military parade with tanks rolling through DC on his birthday, wanted to nuke a hurricane, and forcibly annex Greenland. It isn't really surprising that once he replaced the sane people with sycophants, he would start something.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#127
post #72

I remember one take I had in 2024 after the election. We're all familiar with some of the "defund the police" experiments that went too far in places like Portland and San Francisco and resulted in things like epidemics of casual shoplifting. Well, what we just did is basically the white collar crime equivalent. We now have a wide open free for all for all forms of white collar crime. You can just insider trade, laun…

The whole retail theft epidemic (and the ensuing Union Pacific cargo theft ) was a corporate scam perpetrated by local news and law enforcement PR departments.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#128
post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arguably people who voted for Trump are somewhat responsible, and include a lot of car drivers. (Not to imply that many Democrat politicians aren't also owned by AIPAC and big business.)

I didn’t vote for Trump but I don’t blame the voters. I don’t think many people foresaw him doing this on either side of the political aisle. Other stuff we disapprove of, yes. But not this. I say that because he had famously resisted to enter extended conflict in his first term. Maybe he wanted to but now has the chance since he’s in his final years. (At least, I hope it’s his final years.) But I didn’t hear anyone…

You make a good point. At the same time, when he broke his electoral promise to stop foreign interfefence and kidnapped Maduro, his voter base did not turn against him. That seems to have emboldened him to pursue more military actions abroad.

Now let's see how long until he invades Cuba, and how his voters will react.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#129

Yes, the article is right. And every time an article like this is published, HN predictably goes into the same tirade. What are you actually going to do about it? Nothing. So keep complaining and hoping things change without changing.

Maybe if you had some suggestions or wanted to lead by example?
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