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Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

paulkrugman.substack.com

41–50 of 367 posts

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#41
post #4

So if this sort of "insider trading" is bad, what does this mean for other sorts off strategies hedge funds do to get an edge, like flying helicopters to look at how full oil storage tanks are? Should that be banned too? The article basically argues that any sort of edge is bad because it disincentivizes others from participating. edit: see my subsequent comment. I'm not saying corruption is good. The whole point of…

There are differences between the insider trading and your helicopter example. The theory is the better traders know the reality when making decisions, the better. When oil traders hide information about their reserves, they are working on creating a rift between the reality and the public knowledge. Helicopter is overcoming it. When Trump makes empty announcements that change prices in a purely speculative manner, but before doing this he buys futures, he is just creating instability on the market and he exploiting it. Instability is bad, the whole idea of futures is to deal with the risks stemming from the instability.

Instability is bad, but when the cause of it is market getting new information, it becomes ok: it is bad now, but it is good in the long term. But when the instability becomes a source of profits, when there are incentives and means to create the instability, then long term benefits go away.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#42
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Rothschilds getting news faster because they build an information network is not inside trading. Inside trading is when you have a legal and fiduciary duty not to trade and not to disclose information. The people working in the US government have that obligation and are not abiding by those rules.

>and fiduciary duty not to trade and not to disclose information. The people working in the US government have that obligation No they don't. They might have duties not to leak classified information, but not fiduciary duty.

Look, just come out and say you’re okay with them doing what they’re doing. Stop making arguments that are just verifiably untrue.

> Amends the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 to declare that such Members and employees owe a duty arising from a relationship of trust and confidence to Congress, the U.S. government, and U.S. citizens with respect to material, nonpublic information derived from their positions as Members or congressional employees or gained from performance of the individual's official responsibilities.

(Sec. 5) Amends the Commodity Exchange Act to apply to Members and congressional employees, or to judicial officers or employees its prohibitions against certain transactions, involving the purchase or sale of any commodity in interstate commerce, or for future delivery, or any swap.

Extends the meaning of "covered government person" (currently restricted to Members of Congress and congressional employees) to include the President, Vice President, an employee of the U.S. Postal Service or the Postal Regulatory Commission, or any other executive branch employee.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/112th-congress/senate-bill/203...

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#44
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and fiduciary duty not to trade and not to disclose information. The people working in the US government have that obligation No they don't. They might have duties not to leak classified information, but not fiduciary duty.

Look, just come out and say you’re okay with them doing what they’re doing. Stop making arguments that are just verifiably untrue. > Amends the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 to declare that such Members and employees owe a duty arising from a relationship of trust and confidence to Congress, the U.S. government, and U.S. citizens with respect to material, nonpublic information derived from their positions as Member…

>Look, just come out and say you’re okay with them doing what they’re doing

Don't put words in my mouth. Moreover I'm not sure how you can come to the conclusion that I'm "re okay with them doing what they’re doing", when I specifically acknowledged they have a duty not to leak classified intel.

>Members and employees owe a duty arising from a relationship of trust and confidence to Congress, the U.S. government, and U.S. citizens with respect to material

That's not "fiduciary duty". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiduciary#Relationships

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#45
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The article specifically argues that it's extra bad beyond just corruption. That's the part I'm pushing back on. They are elected officials that are supposed to be working in our best interests, or at least the interest of their supporters. Are they making decisions in our best interests or what makes their pocket book fatter? Poisons the whole system.

Again, that's bad, but still under "corruption", which is not what I, or the article is addressing.

A market maker who doesn't know if their counterparty is a Trump insider looking to fleece them must ask for a bigger safety margin to cover the risk they are taking -- and not just from the insiders. Honest participants in the market get taxed in order to provide the insider payout.

This is extremely basic incenive / money-flow tracing and "setting aside corruption" is a premise that has the hairs on the back of my neck standing straight up. It smells like someone looking to force the framing. Everyone before me in this conversation was right to be suspicious of your motives in asking it, and I am suspicious as well.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#46
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eager to make bank off the back of civilisation, too? My IT colleagues continue to impress!

Psychopaths and sociopaths come from all types of backgrounds. One things for sure, they all tend to gravitate towards power and exploitation of people without remorse. C suite and founders are far from immune from this...

> far from immune from this...

Its a pre-requisite for the job

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#47
post #34
post #18

Can you watch what happens on a market just before the press conference and do the same?

Eager to make bank off the back of civilisation, too? My IT colleagues continue to impress!

Civilization will be effected the same way anyway, why not make a buck of it? But you wouldn't be able to anyway because some quant's ml model would have already sucked every dollar out of the opportunity two milliseconds after the insider executed the trade

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#48

> "The Trump administration is making no real effort to crack down on whoever is trading using inside information, and these inside traders are operating with a complete sense of impunity, assured that they can get away with it." I think this sums it up.

The inside trader made no real effort to crack down on themselves

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#49
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Rothschilds getting news faster because they build an information network is not inside trading. Inside trading is when you have a legal and fiduciary duty not to trade and not to disclose information. The people working in the US government have that obligation and are not abiding by those rules.

>and fiduciary duty not to trade and not to disclose information. The people working in the US government have that obligation No they don't. They might have duties not to leak classified information, but not fiduciary duty.

They do not have a fiduciary duty that is enforceable in a court of law or equity. But the trusteeship model of representative government is basically how we've conceived of the duties of elected officials in liberal democratic republics since John Locke. As a normative matter, we feel that a public official who benefits their private interests at the expense of the public trust has violated their duties to the public. That just is what a fiduciary relationship looks like.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#50

[flagged]

The Rothschilds getting news faster because they build an information network is not inside trading. Inside trading is when you have a legal and fiduciary duty not to trade and not to disclose information. The people working in the US government have that obligation and are not abiding by those rules.

Rothschilds getting news faster, high-frequency trading of the old days.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading

Supplying news as fast as possibles is also the business model of Thomson Reuters.

https://www.thetradenews.com/thomson-reuters-algo-news-feed-...

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