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The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

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Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#61

Post by jmull »

throw-234 wrote: post #51

> Our gerontocracy is not the result of a malevolent plan, .. Boomers aren't distinctively evil.. The fact that they are so numerous and the fact that they are aging in era when life has been extended make the syndrome endemic. .. America faces a gerontocratic crisis of succession on the scale of society itself. The melodrama of succession—­waiting for the old to make way for the new—­defines not only our politics bu…

Sounds dramatic, but what are we talking about here?

Are you planning to work through democratic processes or do you mean revolution?

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#62

Post by ButlerianJihad »

tsunamifury wrote: post #7

This is likely the worst issue humanity will be facing over the next 50 years, even more than climate change. An increasingly old demographic will sabatoge the future of humanity as they drain enormous resources and abuse democratic processes to reroute resources to their preservation of life over young people and familes. Young people and families will choke to death under the strain of elders who demand unlimited s…

When 250 years old you reach, look as good, you will not!

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#63

Post by throw-234 »

lenerdenator wrote: post #22
MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know why people downvoted this because it is obviously correct. In a democracy you have to buy the votes of the largest constituency with other people’s money, which in this case is the boomers votes with the younger generations money. This will continue until nothing is left. This already happened with the triple pension lock in GB, mathematically ensuring the bankruptcy of the state.

It's happening in the US, too. I know of a senior couple where the husband recently retired after forty years of working in a professional field. They live in a house worth over $750k that is paid off. They have three new or late-model vehicles. Both the husband and wife could, if necessary, work for an income. They also collect Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance checks after enrolling for them. The common…

> They have three new or late-model vehicles.

Depends on geography of course, but it's not rare at all for boomers to have this many houses as a normal part of how they experienced middle-class life. As a group they are not only more likely to have rental/investment property, but also more likely to have multiple such properties. Why would they sell? They can get you to pay for all their services, and vote as a block to deny and remove services elsewhere.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#64

Post by toast0 »

lenerdenator wrote: post #22
MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t know why people downvoted this because it is obviously correct. In a democracy you have to buy the votes of the largest constituency with other people’s money, which in this case is the boomers votes with the younger generations money. This will continue until nothing is left. This already happened with the triple pension lock in GB, mathematically ensuring the bankruptcy of the state.

It's happening in the US, too. I know of a senior couple where the husband recently retired after forty years of working in a professional field. They live in a house worth over $750k that is paid off. They have three new or late-model vehicles. Both the husband and wife could, if necessary, work for an income. They also collect Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance checks after enrolling for them. The common…

They paid for Old Age Insurance, and they reached old age, so they get to collect.

Social Security as an insurance product is fiction, but playing into the fiction helps it survive to do the thing it was built for: keep the elderly out of the poor houses / off the street.

Payout rates drop at higher income, and portions of the payout are taxable at higher income, so it's not like it's completely income/wealth blind.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#65

Post by WalterBright »

bruce511 wrote: post #34
lenerdenator wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's happening in the US, too. I know of a senior couple where the husband recently retired after forty years of working in a professional field. They live in a house worth over $750k that is paid off. They have three new or late-model vehicles. Both the husband and wife could, if necessary, work for an income. They also collect Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance checks after enrolling for them. The common…

If you work for 40 years, chances are you will have accumulated some assets. I'm not sure that "sell your house and cars to pay for food" is a policy that will be popular. Equally those same people have paid taxes for 40 years, paid into social security (to the benefit of their elders) and so on. Keeping them in the work-force is largely undesirable. A job occupied by a 70 year old is a job not occupied by someone yo…

> Keeping them in the work-force is largely undesirable.

That presumes there are a fixed number of jobs. Anyone can create a job, even doing simple things like going door to door and offering to mow the lawn.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#66

Post by opo »

MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #20
tsunamifury wrote: post #7

This is likely the worst issue humanity will be facing over the next 50 years, even more than climate change. An increasingly old demographic will sabatoge the future of humanity as they drain enormous resources and abuse democratic processes to reroute resources to their preservation of life over young people and familes. Young people and families will choke to death under the strain of elders who demand unlimited s…

I don’t know why people downvoted this because it is obviously correct. In a democracy you have to buy the votes of the largest constituency with other people’s money, which in this case is the boomers votes with the younger generations money. This will continue until nothing is left. This already happened with the triple pension lock in GB, mathematically ensuring the bankruptcy of the state.

>...I don’t know why people downvoted this because it is obviously correct. In a democracy you have to buy the votes of the largest constituency with other people’s money,

In the last few decades both political parties in the USA have tried to outdo each other in reckless over-spending, but for the first couple hundred years that wasn't the case. Something changed.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#67

Post by opo »

bruce511 wrote: post #34
lenerdenator wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's happening in the US, too. I know of a senior couple where the husband recently retired after forty years of working in a professional field. They live in a house worth over $750k that is paid off. They have three new or late-model vehicles. Both the husband and wife could, if necessary, work for an income. They also collect Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance checks after enrolling for them. The common…

If you work for 40 years, chances are you will have accumulated some assets. I'm not sure that "sell your house and cars to pay for food" is a policy that will be popular. Equally those same people have paid taxes for 40 years, paid into social security (to the benefit of their elders) and so on. Keeping them in the work-force is largely undesirable. A job occupied by a 70 year old is a job not occupied by someone yo…

>... If retirement age was say 80 instead of 60, there would be 25% fewer jobs to go around. (using imprecise simple math).

Economists refer to this idea as the lump of labour fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#68

Post by WalterBright »

Terr_ wrote: post #60
WalterBright wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with "solving inequality" is there is no incentive for one to do better. If one can live as well as everyone else, with no effort, why should one make the effort?

Kind of a strawman though, innit? If "civilization will stagnate and humans will be unmotivated blobs" is one extreme, then the other is something like "condoning economic genocide". In reality, few are concerned that Alice has a much nicer car than Bob, compared to concerns that Bob will die without insulin. Get Bob his insulin, and he will still be motivated to have a nicer car.

> Kind of a strawman though, innit?

Not at all. It's the primary reason why communes fail.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#69

Post by defrost »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #48
WalterBright wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Penalizing people who don't vote will not result in carefully considered votes. Voting rights include the choice to not vote.

Mandatory voting would be nice to have, but it is a form of compelled speech.

Wrong.

In Australia, mandatory voting is compelled real or virtual attendance.

You are required to cast or mail in an anonymous response, that response can be blank, a vote for someone not listed, a regular vote, a donkey vote, paper with many pictures of various genitalia, etc.

No speech is compelled, no pen to paper is compelled, just that registered voters are ticked off the rolls and those registered that don't respond provide at least a weak excuse (my grandmother was sick that day) or face a nominal fine (eventually).

Think of it a citizens part to play in a democracy, the commitment to at least pay attention to the government hired by and paid for by citizens.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#70

Post by lenerdenator »

toast0 wrote: post #64
lenerdenator wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's happening in the US, too. I know of a senior couple where the husband recently retired after forty years of working in a professional field. They live in a house worth over $750k that is paid off. They have three new or late-model vehicles. Both the husband and wife could, if necessary, work for an income. They also collect Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance checks after enrolling for them. The common…

They paid for Old Age Insurance, and they reached old age, so they get to collect. Social Security as an insurance product is fiction, but playing into the fiction helps it survive to do the thing it was built for: keep the elderly out of the poor houses / off the street. Payout rates drop at higher income, and portions of the payout are taxable at higher income, so it's not like it's completely income/wealth blind.

> They paid for Old Age Insurance, and they reached old age, so they get to collect.

That's just it: they're not old. Not in the way a 65-year-old was old in the 1930s.

If they had to farm, mine, log, or work in a factory, yeah, they'd be too old to work. That was most of the work available when OASDI was created, and that's what it's for: to keep you from becoming destitute as an elderly person when there is no ability to work.

But they don't have to do those things. We're a service economy now and most of that involves sitting at a desk or very light office labor. They can still do that to sustain their lifestyle. Failing that, they could liquidate assets.

We're handing out money to people as a treat for their 65th b-day while the national debt is continuing to rise and their kids are crushed under loan debt, medical debt, and further revenue extraction to keep the shares backing retirement accounts increasing in value.

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