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OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

theguardian.com

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Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#221

The negative reactions here are baffling me. The fact that we can even get to say 30% with computer is amazing. So much hatred towards AI and anything from the frontier labs like OpenAI (or Goog for that matter) makes no sense.

I for one am delighted for my acquaintances in the medical field with their cushy, cartel-supported salaries to feel the existential dread of AI coming for their jobs like I have

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Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you on this specific study, however, I can't really wrap my head about the fact that doctors will be better than AI models on the long-run. After all, medicine is all about knowledge, experience and intelligence (maybe "pattern recognition"), all those, we must assume that the best AI models (especially ones focusing solely in the medical field) would largely beat large majority of humans (aka doctors),…

To answer your question: talking to a human. Medicine is so much more than "knowledge, experience, and pattern matching", as any patient ever can attest to. Why is it so hard for some people to understand that humans need other humans and human problems can't be solved with technology?

I cannot wait until doctors are fully automated. Shouldn’t be long now, hopefully just a few years.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#223
post #194
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Needless conspiracy bullshit without sharing specifics

Lol, sharing specifics famously a comfortable and smart thing to do with medical information, doctor. This kind of attitude is why the moment it's viable, every F-student with a doctorate is going to get what they deserve.

What do they deserve?

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you on this specific study, however, I can't really wrap my head about the fact that doctors will be better than AI models on the long-run. After all, medicine is all about knowledge, experience and intelligence (maybe "pattern recognition"), all those, we must assume that the best AI models (especially ones focusing solely in the medical field) would largely beat large majority of humans (aka doctors),…

> we must assume that the best AI models (especially ones focusing solely in the medical field) would largely beat large majority of humans (aka doctors), if we already have this assumption for software engineers, we should have it for this field as well, This is a pretty wild leap. Code has a lot of hooks for training via hill-climbing during post-training. During post-training, you can literally set up arbitrary sc…

Emergency medicine is the coding of medicine. Fast feedback loop, requires broad rather than deep judgement, concrete next steps.

The AI coding improvement should be partially transferrable to other disciplines without recreating the training environment that made it possible in the first place. The model itself has learned what correct solutions "feel like", and the training process and meta-knowledge must have improved a huge amount.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#225
post #50
post #31

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> What is the specific capability (or combination of capabilities) that people believe will remain permanently (or at least for decades) where a top medical AI cannot match or exceed the performance of a good human doctor? Let's put liability and ethics aside, let's be purely objective about it. Being a human when a patient is experiencing what is potentially one of the worst moments of their life. AI could be a tool…

You commonly receive very close proxies for diagnoses through MyChart already when results come back from the lab.

Yeah and it would be shit experience for something serious.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#226
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you prefer an LLM to a human doctor, you deserve an LLM instead of a human doctor, and I wish you get it.

Free markets and all that right? Ok fellas put your money where your mouth is. It’s easy to talk until you put your money behind it (or lack of by getting rid of spending on it) if you are so confident in doctor as a service by llm.

I’ve been using llm as my personal pcp for 3 years now. I’m extremely pleased with the results.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To answer your question: talking to a human. Medicine is so much more than "knowledge, experience, and pattern matching", as any patient ever can attest to. Why is it so hard for some people to understand that humans need other humans and human problems can't be solved with technology?

So much of what I know from women in my life is that the human element of medicine is almost a strict negative for them. As a guy it hasn't been much better, but at least doctors listen to me when I say something.

Perhaps, but I don't have much optimism for what this ends up looking like if it's an AI you have to convince to listen to you. In the spaces where this is already happening (rescruitment comes to mind), things are not looking good..

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you on this specific study, however, I can't really wrap my head about the fact that doctors will be better than AI models on the long-run. After all, medicine is all about knowledge, experience and intelligence (maybe "pattern recognition"), all those, we must assume that the best AI models (especially ones focusing solely in the medical field) would largely beat large majority of humans (aka doctors),…

> we must assume that the best AI models (especially ones focusing solely in the medical field) would largely beat large majority of humans (aka doctors), if we already have this assumption for software engineers, we should have it for this field as well, This is a pretty wild leap. Code has a lot of hooks for training via hill-climbing during post-training. During post-training, you can literally set up arbitrary sc…

Code is pretty much the perfect use case for LLMs… text-based, very pattern-oriented, extremely limited complexity compared to biological systems, etc.

I suspect even prose is largely considered acceptable in professional uses because we haven’t developed a sensitivity to the artifice, and we probably won’t catch up to the LLMs in that arms race for a bit. However, we always manage to develop a distaste for cheap imitations and relegate them to somewhere between the ‘utilitarian ick’ and ‘trashy guilty pleasure’ bins of our cultures, and I predict this will be the same. The cultural response is already bending in that direction, and AI writing in the wild— the only part that culturally matters— sounds the same to me as it did a year and a half ago. I think they’re prairie dogging, but when(/if) they drop that bomb is entirely a matter of product development. You can’t un-drop a bomb and it will take a long time to regain status as a serious tool once society deems it gauche.

The assumption that LLMs figuring out coding means they can figure out anything is a classic case of Engineer’s Disease. Unfortunately, this hubris seems damn near invisible to folks in the tech industry, these days.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To answer your question: talking to a human. Medicine is so much more than "knowledge, experience, and pattern matching", as any patient ever can attest to. Why is it so hard for some people to understand that humans need other humans and human problems can't be solved with technology?

"Human problems can't be solved with technology" is just wrong, unless you have narrower definitions of a "human problem" or "technology". For instance, transportation is a "human problem". It's being successfully solved with such technologies as cars, trains, planes, etc. Growing food at scale is a "human problem" that's being successfully solved by automation. Computing... stuff could be a "human problem" too. It's…

I think you may be misunderstanding the concept of 'human problem'. A human problem is caused by humans, it isn't something like transportation. That is a physics problem. An example of a human problem is cheating; you can't solve cheating with technology. Just add [incentive] after human and it should make more sense.

Re: OpenAI’s o1 correctly diagnosed 67% of ER patients vs. 50-55% by triage doctors

#230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like we need to dismantle and replace this broadly dysfunctional system at multiple points. It's not like the US insurance landscape is anywhere close to the best way of handling healthcare if you look at many places in the world.

I used to think this too. But the past couple of years have soured my taste for "dismantle and replace" of vital institutions. I still think healthcare needs to be reformed, and I hope that insurance will someday be a thing of a past, but I've hung up my chain saw for now.

You've witnessed a dismantle and replace effort by the right wing that wishes to squeeze everything to make rich people more money. An effort by the left would destroy the private insurance scheme and build up medicare. Completely different and you'd get something functional.

When the wrong targets get destroyed, everyone suffers. When parasitic forces are destroyed, the system functions better. It's the difference between defense and friendly fire.

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