Buy now :o)
AAPL is where RIMM was 4 yrs ago. Rest all is history!! :)
RIMM had $100 billion in cash 4 years ago?
Apple’s stock price falls to lowest point in six months
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Re: Apple’s stock price falls to lowest point in six months
#22It's absolutely staggering that this article and commenters here have failed to pick up on the fact that the markets are bearish at the moment and that this is a post election market too.
Re: Apple’s stock price falls to lowest point in six months
#23(Full disclosure: I bought Apple stock and calls in the last 2 days, for a short term trade. Yes, I was &*!@-ing my pants yesterday when it hit ~$505.) The difference with Apple and other momentum stocks is that Apple isn't like Netflix, where hype deeply overshadowed the problem they have with increasing content costs, or Groupon, which simply has a terrible business model. Apple makes an incredible amount of real m…
IMO, it's about volume & margins
Apple, for a long time were a high margins, low volume company. Excellent products that people are willing to pay extra for. It's what they called "differentiation" (as opposed to penetration) when I was at uni. Macs work like this. I'm willing to pay a lot for a mac, more than twice what I'd pay for a Windows machine because I want a mac specifically. Most people don't though. They want to pay less for a computer or they want something Apple don't make.
With ipods, iphones & ipads, Apple created or re-invented markets. They also learned to produce more cheaply. The upshot was that they go to keep their margins as high as always but got market leadership too, even dominance.
That's an anomaly though. In a free market a company is not going to be able to keep such high margins and high market share forever. Apple are impressive, but its probably inevitable that one or the other will give. Just like no company can maintain a startup rate of growth forever.
IMO, that at the heart of everything.
Re: Apple’s stock price falls to lowest point in six months
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
AAPL is where RIMM was 4 yrs ago. Rest all is history!! :)
I do not see them failing like RIM. They might well fail like Sony (i.e remain largish but slowly fade into irrelevance). I can totally see that happening.
Or, like Microsoft? (flat stock for the last ~10 years)
Re: Apple’s stock price falls to lowest point in six months
#25Eugh. I don't get why anyone wants to read this mindless speculation. What else do your tea leaves tell you? "many investors were disappointed that Apple wasn’t able to blow through Wall Street’s estimates" Well, great. Maybe their goat's entrails didn't predict well enough last time, but this time they were wrong the other way. Almost as if it were random - or as if the market had already compensated for their predi…
> Apple sells physical devices for a massive profit. No one else has been able to sell phones/tablets for so much. Apple will keep doing that as long as it can, regardless of Google's efforts to undercut.
The article is about Apple's stock price, and I'm not sure you understand how that part works.
Yes, Apple will continue to make billions of dollars every quarter for quite a while, but their stock is likely to drop down significantly in the coming year.
Re: Apple’s stock price falls to lowest point in six months
#26The risk is that Apple becomes Microsoft. Microsoft has traded in the same $20 - $30 range for more than 5 years. Microsoft is still a cash cow. But there are not enough new hits to propel the stock. Apple's not leaving any time soon but until we see a new hit its staying flat to falling backward.
While I don't buy into the "Maps would have never happened with Steve!!" the one thing that was undeniable was the man oversaw the iPod, the iPhone and the iPad. Unbelievable. Cook et al shows no signs of opening an entire new market. The iPhone is 47% of revenues today and now has several peers where even 2 years ago it had none. A lot of fund managers parked cash in Apple because it was assured of a better return than interest rates. Now that's gone away etc. So all of these things will add up and the stock will trade flat to down over the next few years (unless they change the TV or computing device market again etc)
Re: Apple’s stock price falls to lowest point in six months
#27The risk is that Apple becomes Microsoft. Microsoft has traded in the same $20 - $30 range for more than 5 years. Microsoft is still a cash cow. But there are not enough new hits to propel the stock. Apple's not leaving any time soon but until we see a new hit its staying flat to falling backward. While I don't buy into the "Maps would have never happened with Steve!!" the one thing that was undeniable was the man ov…
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Re: Apple’s stock price falls to lowest point in six months
#28It's absolutely staggering that this article and commenters here have failed to pick up on the fact that the markets are bearish at the moment and that this is a post election market too.
Apple has fallen beyond markets, and it started before the election.
Not that it means a lot.
Re: Apple’s stock price falls to lowest point in six months
#29This looks like a follow-up take on the similar TechCrunch article discussed at http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4791710.
Let me repeat my comment there.
I would personally not buy their stock any time soon.
I keep meaning to write a blog entry on this. To understand my reasoning it helps to be familiar with The Innovator's Dilemma (see http://www.amazon.com/The-Innovators-Dilemma-Technologies-Ca... for the book). The basic assumption of that book (backed up with many examples in industries from ship technology to hard drives to backhoes) is that any technology that has a well-established value proposition will tend to show exponential improvement on that value proposition over time. Users needs also follow an exponential curve, but it tends to be slower than the technology improvement curve. (A lot slower.) Therefore if you have 2 technologies competing for that market, eventually the cheap crappy one will be good enough, and after that point hits it wins. The premium technology will always show great revenue curves even once their low-end users start switching, but those curves hide a great oncoming disaster.
In every market that Apple is in, it is the premium product. It has competitors. And its competitors have a pretty good sense of the value proposition that they need to deliver. Therefore every market line for Apple is doomed. They show no signs of having new ones to wow us with, so Apple has a world of hurt coming.
But, you may ask, why did they not have this problem historically? My answer is because Steve Jobs' genius lay in constantly finding and delivering new value propositions. He found and defined markets for pretty computers, light laptops, smartphones, and so on. The whole Innovator's Dilemma argument depends on competing on a known value proposition, and Jobs never sat still long enough for his competitors to do that.
Of course Jobs is now gone, and there is no sign that Apple has anyone who has that talent.
Re: Apple’s stock price falls to lowest point in six months
#30Growth at breakneck speeds can't continue forever, Law of Diminishing Returns and all that. Jobs is dead, and the market is a little spooked by that. Pull up a long-term chart of AAPL and note the trendline since '08. It is reverting to that line, which is not particularly worrying. If it falls below that trendline, it will become the next MSFT (in a stock sense). Actually, the question is not whether AAPL will become the next MSFT, but when. If you're looking for growth, I suggest looking elsewhere.