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U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

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Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#71

Post by cbdevidal »

andrewflnr wrote: post #65
roncesvalles wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then how will they make money? They only make a $174k base salary and a 15% cap on how much they can earn from other employment sources. I'm only saying this semi sarcastically. Often the senator's aides earn more than the senators themselves.

> Often the senator's aides earn more than the senators themselves. Fine. People motivated by money should take jobs other than sitting in Congress.

Agreed. One thing I appreciate about New Hampshire’s state congress is their pay is fixed at $100/year.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#72

Post by cortesoft »

fhn wrote: post #56

What about friends, family, neighbors, and benefactors? Prediction markets should be illegal period.

There is a valid purpose for (some) trades in a prediction market, namely as a form of insurance/risk management for specific risks a company or individual might have.

For example, if you are a company whose current business would be severely hurt if a particular piece of legislation passes, it might make sense to hedge that risk by placing a bet on a prediction market that the legislation will pass. That way, if your business is hurt by the legislation, you can use the proceeds to offset the harm and pivot to something else.

Of course, that doesn’t explain most prediction market contracts, but that is the idea at least.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#73

Post by 6AA4FD »

andrewflnr wrote: post #65
roncesvalles wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then how will they make money? They only make a $174k base salary and a 15% cap on how much they can earn from other employment sources. I'm only saying this semi sarcastically. Often the senator's aides earn more than the senators themselves.

> Often the senator's aides earn more than the senators themselves. Fine. People motivated by money should take jobs other than sitting in Congress.

Many if not most intelligent and skilled people are highly motivated by money, not just in pursuit of material comfort but security for their spouse, offspring, and extended family.

I am skeptical of an arrangement where those incentives are at odds with care for critical infrastructure like our political process.

That being said, the current arrangement makes it vastly more profitable to destabilize the economy and sell short than stabilize it and buy long, which is clearly unacceptable to me.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#74

Post by tstrimple »

cbdevidal wrote: post #71
andrewflnr wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Often the senator's aides earn more than the senators themselves. Fine. People motivated by money should take jobs other than sitting in Congress.

Agreed. One thing I appreciate about New Hampshire’s state congress is their pay is fixed at $100/year.

Great way to ensure only the independently wealthy can participate in politics.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#75

Post by redorb »

roncesvalles wrote: post #61
the13 wrote: post #54

Just prediction markets? They should be banned from all trading and active investing, period.

But then how will they make money? They only make a $174k base salary and a 15% cap on how much they can earn from other employment sources. I'm only saying this semi sarcastically. Often the senator's aides earn more than the senators themselves.

The fact senators have been able to stay in the senate for 20+ years, means they are probably making plenty of money. We need another round of FBI bribe stings to clean things up

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#76

Post by jrmg »

ribosometronome wrote: post #22

Any lawyers able to comment on the actual wording of the resolution? It kind of reads to me like in their effort to narrowly capture just prediction markets like Kalshi but not stock markets, they've perhaps unintentionally barred themselves from some other unintended things, too. https://www.moreno.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/FIL... >No Member of the Senate may enter into, or offer to enter into, an agreem…

Or buying health insurance?

Edit: I guess that’s not dependent on a ‘specific’ future event.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#77

Post by bs7280 »

roncesvalles wrote: post #61
the13 wrote: post #54

Just prediction markets? They should be banned from all trading and active investing, period.

But then how will they make money? They only make a $174k base salary and a 15% cap on how much they can earn from other employment sources. I'm only saying this semi sarcastically. Often the senator's aides earn more than the senators themselves.

People should not be getting into politics for the money. I want senators who are doing it because they want to see a change in the world.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#78

Post by ToValueFunfetti »

andrewflnr wrote: post #65
roncesvalles wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But then how will they make money? They only make a $174k base salary and a 15% cap on how much they can earn from other employment sources. I'm only saying this semi sarcastically. Often the senator's aides earn more than the senators themselves.

> Often the senator's aides earn more than the senators themselves. Fine. People motivated by money should take jobs other than sitting in Congress.

~Everybody is motivated by money or else not motivated at all. Money is potential energy for essentially any objective you might have, whether that's developing new tech or donating to charity. By cutting money out, you just select for the subset of people who are more motivated by power or status or who already have more money than they know what to do with.

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#79

Post by qwertyuiop_ »

roncesvalles wrote: post #61
the13 wrote: post #54

Just prediction markets? They should be banned from all trading and active investing, period.

But then how will they make money? They only make a $174k base salary and a 15% cap on how much they can earn from other employment sources. I'm only saying this semi sarcastically. Often the senator's aides earn more than the senators themselves.

What’s the ceiling ?

https://www.quiverquant.com/congresstrading/politician/Nancy...

Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets

#80

Post by tstrimple »

ocdtrekkie wrote: post #70
brendoelfrendo wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I kind of agree with your semi-sarcastic take. While that salary is well above the US average, the fact is that they almost certainly don't make enough to own or rent a home in DC, and a second home in their constituency. It all but ensures that there can't be an honest member of congress, unless they feel like sleeping in their office.

What can Congresscritters expense? I'd assume they need to travel between their home state and DC frequently. Would lodging for work where they do not have a home be expensable somewhere? Isn't the solution to needing two homes to do the job for the government to provide that as a work expense rather than permitting funky financial hijinks?

It’s better than it used to be. Since 2023 House members can expense up to $30k / year in travel costs and lodging in DC. Prior to that, they had to eat those costs which were estimated to average around $28k per year based on number of days in session.
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