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U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

reuters.com

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Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the second- and third order effects of the Marg Bar Amrika Society getting a nuclear device (and the missiles to deliver it)?

Peace in that region of the world, since you can't just bomb Iran consequence free anymore? MAD has had its virtues extolled, yet assume it won't work with another country because somehow they are even more irrational (if true). Even though that is exactly for whom the MAD strategy is designed and operates under. It is only the build up of Iran getting a nuclear weapon that is used to go to war. The game theory here…

> Peace in that region of the world

...wat? You mean like the peace that Iran exports to the region, and the peace that all those protesters experienced a few months ago?

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that it doesn't count the cost of second- or third- order effects (like the cost from the price of oil going up by 50%). Since February 28, crude oil prices increases cost $42 billion in the United States alone.

What are the second- and third order effects of the Marg Bar Amrika Society getting a nuclear device (and the missiles to deliver it)?

It is interesting.

Is the job of a leader (or the administration) to foresee threats before anyone else can see it coming? Is their job to make sure that it does not manifest?

It is interesting that when they does it, the majority is against it, precisely because no one else could see it and can agree with the action of the administration?

So it seems that if someone is a very good leader, they will be ridiculed by the very people they are trying to protect. I think this happens if the unit in question is a family, or a country.

I am not picking sides in the on going crisis. But just making an observation.

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#63
For comparison, Iran's annual military budget is somewhere between $7B and $11B [1], representing 2-2.5% of estimated GDP. The US military budget currently exceeds $1T+ and the ask for 2026 is expected to be $1.5T+, representing almost 5% of GDP. And the US simply cannot end this conflict militarily short of the use of nuclear weapons. I don't mean that as hyperbole. I mean it literally.

There are long-term consequences to this war (and the 12 day war last year), namely the depletion of missile defence munitions (eg Patriot, THAAD) that will take years to replenish and this will have ripple effects on allies as well as certain theaters (eg moving THAAD interceptors and radars from South Korea to the Gulf).

Over half of the military budget goes towards weapon systems, arguably incredibly overpriced weapon systems. Put another way, it's a scam to move money from government coffers to private weapons manufacturers.

The inability to open the Strait of Hormuz militarily was not a surprise to US military leadership or intelligence agencies. It was only a surprise to the president (IMHO) who believed he could do a repeat of a Venezuelan decapitation strike. But Iran unlike Venezuela has suffered under reprehensible and unjustifiable sanctions and military adventurism by the US and its proxies such that the entire Iranian national project is built to resist US aggression, understandably. So that was never going to work.

This will have to end diplomatically. It will be worse for the US than it was before this war. Iran has something better than a nuke: it has a nuke they can use (e closing the Strait) and the US forced them to use it and prove that it works.

Now it's just a questio9n of how long this impassse goes on for before it ends and so far at least the US would rather let the world burn than split with Israel. Again without hyperbole I say, splitting with Israel effectively means the end of American empire. And the whole world is suffering for it.

[1]: https://tradingeconomics.com/iran/military-expenditure

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#64

Destroying the world is cheap compared to the cost to humanity. Now they need to share the cost that we have burdened the world and ourselves with.

Privatize the gains, socialize the losses. I miss actual capitalism with actual competition and anti-trust enforcement, not the oligopolies, regulatory capture and government-picked survivors we have now.

Too bad the reaction isn’t to correct capitalism rather than to eagerly embrace communist progressivism.

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#65
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the second- and third order effects of the Marg Bar Amrika Society getting a nuclear device (and the missiles to deliver it)?

Probably comparable to North Korea getting a nuclear device and the missiles to deliver it.

This superficial analogy comes up a lot but these two states don't share anything in common aside from internal repression. They're diametrically opposed in their external behavior.

Look at a small sampling of Iran's external actions in the region through the Quds force. The hundreds of thousands of Syrians killed by Hezbollah or the almost 300k dead in Yemen due to the Houthis. Iran's actions in 2019-2022 against CENTCOM bases in Iraq and elsewhere. The puppet Iraqi president propped up by PMF.

North Korea doesn't do anything like this until very recently when they started sending troops to invade Ukraine. They don't organize their state around an expansionist death cult ideology.

NK doesn't behave different due to owning a nuclear weapon. Before the 1990s they were like this too.

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#66
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that it doesn't count the cost of second- or third- order effects (like the cost from the price of oil going up by 50%). Since February 28, crude oil prices increases cost $42 billion in the United States alone.

It's so odd to me that people think the cost of oil going up is universally bad. It's good both morally for me and financially for many people.

Me too. I'm surprised those in the Green Movements generally, haven't been celebrating. Not a whisper. Makes one wonder.

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

to be fair US is net exporter now

Being a net exporter is completely irrelevant when prices are set globally. Such a statement is like shining a laser pointer to distract a cat, fun, but meaningless.

You do realize some net exporters subsidize their domestic supply to keep the people happy?

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#69
post #42
post #22

I remember before the election I read a few people on HN say Trump is the most anti-war president they have ever seen and that all the talk about him letting Israel flatten Palestine was fearmongering. Wonder how they feel now.

I think he ran on ending "forever wars", not whether or not Israel could flatten Palestine. He would probably also argue that Iran is a 47 year forever war that he is finally ending.

I guess one of the Koreas should watch out since Trump might want to end that "forever war" as well. Flip a coin to decide which one.

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#70
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It successfully diverted attention away from the Trump-Epstein Files. "Mission Accomplished"

If that is the case why do I see this comment every 5 minutes?

Yea, it is funny in /r/worldnews. Everytime Trump says something, there will be a thousand comments describing why everyone should ignore everything he says..
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